By Opta Analyst | Created at 2024-11-29 10:30:02 | Updated at 2024-11-29 12:55:12
2 hours ago
Emma Hayes returns to London as the United States Women’s National Team take on England in an intriguing friendly at Wembley on Saturday. Here, we preview a fascinating encounter.
US soccer has been the standard bearer for women’s football long before the game reached the level of popularity it has today.
The United States are the most successful nation of all time with four World Cup wins, and on Saturday they travel to the home of football, a sold-out Wembley, to face European champions England in a marquee international friendly.
The Lionesses have been on their own journey over the last few years. Sarina Wiegman took over in 2021 and brought the winning mentality England needed.
England were crowned European champions in 2022 and then finished as runners-up in last year’s World Cup, though a few concerns have emerged of late, as the defence of their Women’s Euros crown next summer comes into view.
The USWNT have been through a period of transition since Jill Ellis left in 2019. An unsuccessful end to her replacement Vlatko Andonovski’s reign led to the arrival of Emma Hayes, and she is now being thrust into the spotlight back in England as the former Chelsea boss returns home.
Ahead of the huge England vs USA clash, here are five things we are looking out for.
Will the Hayes Era Keep Rolling on Her Return Home?
USA, in their time of need, looked across the pond for the solution to get back to winning ways and plundered the ranks of England’s best in Hayes.
It is a move that has paid off spectacularly so far.
Hayes won Olympic gold in her first tournament in charge, and the serial winner – with seven Women’s Super League titles to her name – is now back in London, aiming to get one over on her home nation and putting an unbeaten record on the line.
USA have won 12 of their 13 matches under Hayes, drawing the other. Hayes has brought the monster mentality she instilled at Chelsea, and the Lionesses will have to be at their very best to halt her momentum.
With four warm-up games ahead of the Paris Olympics, Hayes did not have long to find her feet. Making huge section choices such as dropping Alex Morgan (with 123 goals on the international stage), she opted for younger talents who could rotate in multiple positions, and her bold choices paid off.
Coined “the Triple Espresso”, USA’s attacking trident of Trinity Rodman, Sophia Smith and Mallory Swanson announced themselves as the next superstars of the national team.
The trio started all six of USA’s Olympic matches, scoring 10 goals between them – Swanson led the way with four, while Rodman and Swanson finished with three apiece.
Swanson has been directly involved in 10 goals for USA since Hayes’ first game in charge in June. She is the joint-top scorer in that period (six – level with Smith) and leads the way for assists (four). She also finished with the highest xG (3.8) of any player at the at this year’s Olympics. Smith, meanwhile, had a tournament-leading 27 shots and created 10 chances.
As a team, Hayes’ USA were the Olympic tournament’s top scorers with 12 goals, averaging 17.3 shots per match. But she will be without Swanson, Smith and Rodman against England, with the trio rested.
Alyssa Thompson will be waiting in the wings against England to try and prove she has what it takes to be a threat against the best international teams.
In October, Thompson found the net against Iceland in a 3-1 victory. The 19-year-old has recorded five goals and seven assists for Angel City this season, so is in fine form as she arrives in London.
The End of an Era, and the Start of a New One?
While in the outfield positions Hayes went with youth, she relied on experience in goal. Alyssa Naeher conceded just twice at the Olympics, keeping a competition-leading four clean sheets. She made 22 saves and recorded a 91.7% save ratio, the highest of any goalkeeper to play at least 90 minutes at the Games. Her 3.2 goals prevented figure was the third highest at the tournament.
At the 2023 World Cup, she kept three clean sheets, which trailed only Australia’s Mackenzie Arnold (four). Naeher has made 11 World Cup appearances in total and has the best save percentage (76.5%) of any United States goalkeeper on record in the tournament, conceding only four goals.
But this week, Naeher announced she would be retiring after more than a decade of representing her country. She will do so as the only US goalkeeper to earn a clean sheet in both a World Cup and an Olympic final.
While Naeher will get the chance to revel in a farewell lap, Phallon Tullis-Joyce seems the natural heir.
The Manchester United goalkeeper has been making her mark after England number one Mary Earps left for pastures new in Paris.
Tullis-Joyce has more than stepped up to the mark. She has conceded only three goals and has kept five clean sheets so far this term in the WSL.
Indeed, Tullis-Joyce has the highest goals prevented (5.9) tally in the league. Her 87.5% save ratio from shots inside the box is second only to Chelsea’s Hannah Hampton (93.3%).
Can Wiegman Make the Lionesses Roar Again?
England have played 10 matches in 2024, a year that started on a high with 7-2 and 5-1 wins over Austria and Italy respectively. But the Lionesses have been less fluent since then. They have failed to win their first game of an international break in three of the last four attempts (W1 D1 L2), having won 13 and lost none of their first 16 such matches under Wiegman (D3).
It will be fascinating to see if they can reverse that trend as they come up against USA’s global stars.
The Lionesses have lost two of their last four home games, more defeats than they suffered across their previous 22 such matches. Form has been disappointing and their recent 4-3 loss to Germany emphasised those struggles.
England allowed Germany to have eight attempts on target in that thriller, while nine of their opponents’ 12 shots came from inside the Lionesses’ box.
An unconvincing 2-1 win over South Africa on 29 October was not enough to lift the mood. Defensive issues were also present in that game, as South Africa registered 1.2 xG, from only nine shots. England, on the other hand, were hardly free-flowing in attack, accumulating 0.8 xG.
USA , meanwhile, conceded just twice in six games at the Olympics, with only Canada – who played two games fewer – matching that.
But their 5.2 xGA figure suggests they were fortunate to concede so few, while they faced 70 shots in total (11.6 per game), so England’s attackers at least have some hope of making an impact.
Which New England Leaders Will Emerge From the Pack?
With the likes of Lauren Hemp and Ella Toone absent, Wiegman will be looking to some of her young stars to step forward in this game.
Hemp will be a huge loss, as she has been in excellent form this season, averaging 1.1 WSL goal contributions per 90 for Man City.
However, emerging Man Utd star Grace Clinton is certainly one to watch. She has scored in two of her four England appearances, including last time out against South Africa.
Should Clinton score in back-to-back outings, she would be the youngest to do so (21 years, 244 days) for the Lionesses since Jordan Nobbs in 2013 (20y 327d).
Laura Blindkilde Brown has received her maiden call-up and it will be fascinating to see what impact this talented but inexperienced prospect can make. She has only started one WSL game for City this season but has still done enough to impress Wiegman and recently scored in the Champions League against Hammarby.
Alongside the newer international stars, Wiegman needs her established players to show up, which has not always been the case in recent matches. Across England’s last two games, Georgia Stanway has created just one chance, while Keira Walsh has been unable to provide any goalscoring opportunities for her teammates.
There is also a nice headache to have over who should be number one, with Earps and Hampton two strong candidates.
Since Wiegman’s first game in charge of England in September 2021, Earps has a save percentage of 74% for the Lionesses and conceded 0.6 goals per game (43 apps), compared to Hampton’s rate of 67% and 1.1 goals conceded per game across a smaller sample size (nine games).
The Dutchwoman has a tough decision to make as to who will be between the sticks, but perhaps Earps is the leader that England will need in such a big fixture.
Will England or USA Claim a Statement Victory?
A big matchup between the European champions and Olympic gold medallists will provide both nations with a marker for where they stand. It is a close one to call, and the Opta supercomputer is forecasting an incredibly tight encounter.
England could do with a morale-boosting result ahead of the Euros and will want to make a statement at home. The supercomputer gives them a 35.4% chance of winning.
USA’s chances are ranked ever so slightly higher at 38.6%, while the likelihood of a draw is 26%, so it’s clear everything is to play for and the finest of margins could decide the contest.
Since the start of 2015, England and USA have met eight times, with USA winning five of those matches and England tasting victory just twice, with one draw.
Across those eight fixtures, USA have scored 10 times, keeping four clean sheets, while England have found the net on just six occasions. However, England’s victory did come in the most recent encounter, with Hemp and Stanway scoring in a 2-1 friendly win in 2022.
Hayes will feel confident her visitors can avenge that loss off the back of an exceptional summer and, since losing to England, USA have gone two years and 19 matches without losing a friendly, a proud record that will be put to the test in what promises to be a fascinating encounter.
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