Liverpool vs Aston Villa Prediction

Liverpool are the overwhelming favourites with the Opta supercomputer to claim three points in the Premier League on Saturday. Look ahead to the game at Anfield with our Liverpool vs Aston Villa prediction and preview.

Liverpool vs Aston Villa Stats: The Key Insights

• The Opta supercomputer predicts Liverpool are likeliest to win at Anfield on Saturday, beating Villa in 61.8% of the pre-match simulations.
• Aston Villa take all three points in just 18.4% of simulations.
• Villa have lost 16 of their last 18 Premier League away games against sides starting the day top of the table.
• No player has been involved in more Premier League goals this season than Mohamed Salah.

The omens do not look particularly good for Aston Villa as they prepare for a trip to Anfield to face Premier League leaders Liverpool.

Villa have lost five and drawn one of their past six visits to Anfield and come into this game on the back of a 4-1 hammering at the hands of Tottenham and a 1-0 UEFA Champions League loss at Club Brugge.

The task facing them on Saturday is mammoth, and recent history tells us Villa have not exactly thrived when travelling to league leaders. Unai Emery’s side have lost 16 of their previous 18 Premier League away games against teams starting the day top of the table (D2), losing nine such contests on the bounce.

The only time they’ve won such a match scenario was against Leeds United in a 2-1 win at Elland Road back in January 2000.

Liverpool had to show some mettle in their last two league outings having fallen behind to both Arsenal and Brighton. They came back in both of those games, drawing 2-2 and winning 2-1 respectively. The comeback win against the Seagulls saw the Reds become only the third team to come from behind to win a Premier League game on 100 occasions.

Arne Slot’s men enjoyed another memorable night in Europe this week, too. They swatted aside a very talented Bayer Leverkusen team 4-0, and are now favourites to finish top of the Champions League’s league stage.

Part of the success they are enjoying under Slot lies in the fact they are giving up very few shots on target. Their tally of 34 shots on target faced is bettered only by Manchester City’s 32, while they have conceded the fewest goals (6) and have the lowest expected goals (xG) against (8.1).

With victory over Brighton, Slot became just the fifth manager to win eight of his opening 10 Premier League games after John Gregory (1998), Guus Hiddink (2009), Carlo Ancelotti (2009) and Ange Postecoglou (2023). Of that group, Postecoglou was the only one who failed to win his 11th game.

Slot is really getting a tune out of his talisman Mohamed Salah. The Egyptian has been involved in more goals in the Premier League this season than any other player (12 – 7 goals, 5 assists). He’s also recorded the most touches in the opposition box (96) and has the highest percentage of shots on target for players to have registered 20+ attempts (67% – 20/30).

Villa’s two league defeats this season have come against north London duo Arsenal and Spurs and they will be aiming to avoid consecutive league defeats for the first time since May. In team news, they will be without full-back Matty Cash and midfielder Ross Barkley.

Liverpool remain without Alisson Becker, Diogo Jota, Harvey Elliott and Federico Chiesa for this clash, though Ibrahima Konaté featured in the 4-0 thrashing of Bayer Leverkusen in the Champions League having gone off against Brighton.

Liverpool vs Aston Villa Head-to-Head

Liverpool won just one of six Premier League games against Aston Villa at Anfield between 2009 and 2014 (D2, L3) but their recent record is much more formidable.

Indeed, of the past six top-flight encounters between them at Anfield, the Reds have won five and drawn one. They were resounding 3-0 winners in last season’s corresponding fixture with Dominik Szoboszlai and Salah on target either side of a Cash own goal.

One crumb of comfort for Villa is that they have won six away Premier League games against Liverpool, with only Manchester United (12) and Chelsea (7) managing more (Arsenal also have six wins at Anfield).

Liverpool vs Aston Villa Prediction

Liverpool are considered the clear favourites with the Opta supercomputer in this clash, coming out on top in 61.8% of the 10,000 simulations conducted.

Villa, meanwhile, were the winners in only 18.4% of occasions, with the draw occurring 19.8% of the time.

Liverpool may be top of the standings overall, but they aren’t favourites to win the title. Not yet, anyway.

Their likeliest finishing position is second (48.8%) according to the Opta supercomputer. That said, their 46.5% probability of winning the title is up from 17.9% on 1 November, marking a simply stunning change in their outlook because of results over the past week.

Villa find themselves sixth in the table and currently that is their likeliest final position (16.5%), though their probabilities are spread much more widely and a top-four finish is very much on the cards (10.4%).

Liverpool vs Aston Villa Predicted Lineups

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

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