New Zealand’s Aukus decision hinges on Trump’s Indo-Pacific strategy: analysts

New Zealand is likely to adopt a “wait and see” approach to assess if US president-elect Donald Trump moves away from the current administration’s strong presence in the Indo-Pacific region, analysts say, signalling that its alliance choices may hinge on Washington’s next moves.

Nicholas Ross Smith, senior research fellow at the University of Canterbury, said New Zealand is likely to observe how Trump’s second term unfolds, adding that if Trump 2.0 moves away from pursuing a strong Indo-Pacific presence, Wellington may revert to a hedging strategy.

“If Trump keeps a strong Indo-Pacific focus and Aukus remains a key part of that, New Zealand will continue to consider being a part of the Pillar 2” as Wellington sees Washington as its “security guarantor,” Smith said.

Established in 2021, the trilateral Aukus partnership between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States comprises two main pillars. The first pillar focuses on equipping Australia with nuclear-powered submarines to enhance its naval capabilities in response to regional security concerns.

Pillar 2 emphasises collaboration on advanced technologies, including quantum computing, artificial intelligence and hypersonic weapons, aiming to bolster the collective technological edge of member nations.