Romania: The specter of a hard-right majority looms large

Since Sunday evening, nothing is as it was before in Romania.

Thousands of young people have been taking to the streets of the country's major cities every evening, demonstrating against extremism and for Europe. Social media stars have been posting messages, calling on voters to stop the country falling into the abyss. Intellectuals have been calling the events of the weekend one of the greatest tragedies in the country's recent history. And the media have been reporting on almost nothing else.

This is a country in turmoil. It all began when independent candidate Calin Georgescu came out of nowhere to win the first round of the presidential election on Sunday, getting about 23% of the vote.

Georgescu is an extreme right-wing admirer of Russian President Vladimir Putin, an apologist for the Christian Orthodox Romanian fascists of the interwar years, conspiracy theorist and peddler of esoteric ideas.

Parliamentary election on Sunday

Romania goes to the polls again on Sunday to elect a new parliament and is scheduled to vote in the presidential election runoff a week later.

After last Sunday's shock outcome, many in the country now fear that extreme right-wing parties could get a majority in parliament and that the hard-right Georgescu will win the runoff on December 8 and become president.

This would not only unleash chaos in Romania, but cause huge problems for the EU and NATO.

Potential headache for the EU and NATO

Romania is the sixth largest country in the European Union and NATO's most important partner in southeastern Europe. It has the alliance's most important antimissile defense station and air base in the region. What's more, the lion's share of military aid for Ukraine passes through Romania.

Calin Georgescu got 23% of the vote in the first round of the presidential election on Sunday, triggering a political earthquake in RomaniaImage: Daniel Mihailescu/AFP/Getty Images

The country also borders the Black Sea, which means that Ukrainian grain ships sail past it on their way to the Bosporus Strait.

This is why Romania is of much greater geopolitical significance than Hungary or Slovakia, whose nationalist leaders — Viktor Orban and Robert Fico respectively — are also pitting themselves against the EU and NATO consensus.

No reliable opinion polls

In the run-up to Sunday's parliamentary election, nothing is as it usually is.

One indication of this is that not one single opinion poll before the first round of the presidential election even hinted at the fact that Calin Georgescu could come out on top. Another is that there are no recent reliable opinion polls for Sunday's general election.

Polls last week suggested that six parties could be elected to parliament: the ruling Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the National Liberal Party (PNL), which make up the current coalition government, the extreme right-wing Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (AUR) and S.O.S Romania, the progressive liberal Save Romania Union (USR) and the Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR).

There have been regular protests in Romania since the first round of the presidential election on Sunday. The sign reads 'Romania in 2024, not 1984!'Image: DANIEL MIHAILESCU/AFP/Getty Images

Originally, the Social Democrats were polling at about 30% and the National Liberals at about 15%. All of this is now up in the air because the presidential candidates from both parties — Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu (PSD) and President of the Senate Nicolae Ciuca (PNL) — both performed poorly in the first round of the presidential election and resigned as leaders of their respective parties.

How will the progressive liberals fare?

Recent polls saw the hard-right AUR and S.O.S. Romania getting a combined result of about 25% to 28%. In the first round of the presidential election, however, the combined result of all right-wing candidates was 38%.

After Georgescu's shock victory, many observers now fear that the hard right could even get a parliamentary majority.

Another party that could do well on Sunday is the pro-reform progressive liberal USR, whose candidate, Elena Lasconi, came second in the first round of the presidential election and has a good chance of winning the runoff on December 8.

Elena Lasconi (center) will face Calin Georgescu in the presidential election runoff on December 8Image: Bogdan Buda/REUTERS

While recent opinion polls saw the USR only just making it into double digits, the party could very well benefit from the miserable showing of the ruling parties, PSD and PNL.

Unpopular establishment

But there is much more at stake in the parliamentary election than in the presidential election.

Although Romania's head of state has a certain degree of authority when it comes to foreign and security policy, the president cannot make any pioneering executive decisions without the parliament and the government.

So, while having a far-right, pro-Russian conspiracy theorist like Georgescu as president would certainly be an awful outcome for Romania, a far-right majority in parliament would be worse.

Many voters are attracted by the far-right's promise to sweep away Romania's hugely unpopular political establishment.

Far-right politician George Simion (left) came fourth in the first round of the presidential electionImage: Andreea Campeanu/REUTERS

Many Romanians see the PSD, which has dominated Romanian politics since the overthrow of communism in 1989, as being synonymous with corruption and nepotism. However, the reputation of their coalition partners, the National Liberals, is not much better.

Because both parties have for decades been blocking fundamental administrative and judicial reforms, hatred of the establishment in Romania is widespread.

Court orders recount

The situation is further complicated by the fact that Romania's Constitutional Court on Thursday ordered a recount of votes in the first round of the presidential election.

The decision followed challenges from two presidential candidates who finished very far down the field and asked for the election result to be annulled because of fraud.

Although Romania's Constitutional Court is nominally independent, its members are appointed by the parliament and the president. These members are often former politicians.

Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu (left) and President of the Senate Nicolae Ciuca (right) were both knocked out of the presidential election in the first roundImage: Cristian Ștefănescu/DW

History has shown that Romania's Constitutional Court is often used for political intrigues. This was seemingly the case in early October, when a far-right candidate was excluded from the presidential election. There are allegations that this was done to help ensure a better result for the ruling Social Democrats.

Bumpy road ahead

It is unclear what the impact of the court's order will be. However, the parliamentary election is likely to create an extremely difficult political situation for Romania because no one party is expected to get a majority.

Because of the bitter divisions within Romania's right wing, a parliamentary majority for these parties would result in domestic political chaos.

Should the progressive liberal USR win, it would need a coalition partner — which would mean joining forces with one of the current establishment parties — or would have to form a minority government.

Whatever happens on Sunday, it looks like Romania is in for a very bumpy ride.

This article was originally written in German and adapted by Aingeal Flanagan.