By Opta Analyst | Created at 2024-11-15 16:15:20 | Updated at 2024-11-23 07:59:20
1 week ago
Tottenham keep conceding the first goal of their games, which doesn’t appear to be much of a problem when they are at home. On the road, however, it’s a different story.
After Tottenham had completed their comeback victory over Aston Villa on Sunday, Dejan Kulusevski made a bold claim that he had seen the result coming, even with his side a goal down at the break.
“I said to the lads at half-time: ‘If we score one, we will score four’.
“[Then] as soon as we scored one with a lovely cross from Sonny [Son Heung-min] and a good finish from Brennan [Johnson], I knew we were going to win.”
Normally, successfully predicting a 4-1 win at 1-0 down would show a level of foresight that even our very own omniscient Opta supercomputer can only dream of.
But on this occasion, it wasn’t quite as prophetic as it might have been had he actually even predicted a 4-1 Tottenham win.
That’s because Spurs have previous on this front. Last time out at home in the Premier League, they went 1-0 down in the first half against West Ham, only to score four goals in the space of 24 minutes to run out 4-1 winners. One game earlier on home soil, they came back from a goal down to beat Brentford 3-1.
The Villa comeback took Tottenham to 10 Premier League wins after conceding the first goal since the start of last season. It’s the joint-most of any team alongside Manchester City. That’s pretty impressive.
But you can only come back to win if you go behind in the first place, which is of course inherently negative. Spurs have conceded the first goal of the game 23 times in the Premier League since Ange Postecoglou came in, with only a handful of teams – all of whom were either in last season’s relegation battle or look like they will be this term – having done so on more occasions.
Since the start of 2024, Spurs have let in the first goal of the game more times than any other team in the Premier League (12). They have done so six times already in 10 games this season.
That is simply not good enough for a team with aspirations of getting back into the Champions League and finally ending their trophy drought. It surely isn’t sustainable to keep on winning after conceding, particularly when there is such a stark contrast between how Spurs react to going behind when at home compared to when playing away.
At home, Spurs have become masters of the comeback win. Hence, Kulusevski’s confidence last Sunday after Villa had opened the scoring.
Of the 23 times Spurs have conceded first under Postecoglou, 13 have come at home and 10 have come on the road. They have won nine of 13 after conceding first at home, compared to just one out of 10 away from home. That gives them a win rate after going behind of 69.2% at home, and just 10% when playing away.
Their only home defeats after conceding first have come against Arsenal (twice), Manchester City (when they were going for the title at the end of last season) and Wolves. The Wolves game is the only one of those that you can’t really excuse.
On the other hand, their sole away comeback win came at Burnley in September 2023, in Postecoglou’s fourth game in charge, at a promoted side who would go on to win just 24 points all season. More recently, they have lost their last six in a row when conceding first away from home.
In other words, Tottenham respond to going a goal behind at home by roaring back into the game and often overwhelming the opponent. Meanwhile, away from home, they seem to have no response at all. It’s a contrast that is as infuriating as it is baffling.
So, what possible explanation is there for it?
An apparent inability to fight back in unfamiliar surroundings when things aren’t going to plan and the opposition’s fans are doing everything they can to put you off doesn’t scream of a strong-willed group full of leaders and characters. At 1-0 down at a then-winless Crystal Palace a couple of weeks ago, Tottenham distinctly appeared to be lacking the kind of players who could grab a game regardless of the environment.
Back at home and behind a week later against Champions League-contesting Villa, however, they moved the ball quickly when they had it, pressed relentlessly when they didn’t, and created tonnes of chances. That has been a pattern for the whole season, too.
When losing at home, Spurs are creating chances worth 3.7 expected goals per 90. That drops to 2.0 xG per 90 when winning and 1.4 xG per 90 when drawing. In other words, when they are behind at home they create lots of goalscoring opportunities.
On the road, meanwhile, they are creating chances worth just 1.0 xG per 90 when behind, compared to 1.4 per 90 when drawing and 2.5 when winning. That makes it look a lot like they perform well away when things are going their way, and not so well when they aren’t.
For many teams, the fact we are only 10 games into the season (five home and five away) means we are working with a very small sample size when it comes to focusing on any single team in any specific game state. For example, Brentford are averaging 4.2 xG per 90 at home when losing, but they have only been trailing for 16 minutes on home soil all season. Arsenal are averaging 3.3 xG per 90 over the three minutes they have been trailing at home.
However, Tottenham’s games have been so topsy-turvy that they’ve spent a decent amount of time in each game state whether at home or away. We are naturally dealing with small sample sizes for every team, but there is perhaps more justification to read into Spurs’ numbers than there might be for other clubs. Particularly when the numbers back up the eye test, too.
So, what’s the solution? Well, avoiding conceding first is the obvious place to start, but that’s apparently much easier said than done.
Perhaps Tottenham need to be less open, particularly away from home, and prioritise clean sheets over goals early on in games.
But as Postecoglou has made very clear since he arrived in London, that just isn’t the way he does things (mate), and there’s little chance of Spurs doing anything other than playing on the front foot from start to finish of every game.
So, maybe it will be best to try and work out what it will take for Spurs to be able to claw their way back into away games after going behind.
The numbers suggest they aren’t pressing as much on the road as they are at home, with 77.2 pressures in the final third per game in away games and 97.8 per game when at home. They are also fading in the second halves of games on the road in a way they aren’t at home.
Spurs have won the second half in four of their five home league games this season, with an aggregate score of 10-1. In away games, they have won the second half only once (2-0 vs 10-man Manchester United), with an aggregate score of 3-6. That leaves only one second-half away goal against 11 men: a Dan Burn own goal against Newcastle.
It is always going to be difficult to maintain the kind of intensity Tottenham press with for a full game. They top the Premier League this season for pressures in the final third, with 875 – at least 54 more than every other team.
But they seem to manage doing so far better at home than they do on the road. Could it be that they are encouraged by the 61,000-strong home crowd when playing at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, and aren’t quite as able to gather the kind of momentum they showed in the comeback wins over Brentford, West Ham and Villa when playing away?
That might well be the case, and it is just about understandable.
But if it is what is happening, it is without doubt something that needs to be addressed. Away form is often said to be a better barometer of a great team than results at home, where things are always going to be more comfortable.
It’s fair to say that this Spurs team have some way to go before becoming a great team, and showing a bit more mettle on the road would be a big step forward in that regard.
Facing a Europa League tie in the most hostile of environments at Galatasaray on Thursday night, this will be a very tough – but a very good – place to start.
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