Why a stronger China has little to fear from a second Trump administration

As the key pieces fall into place for positions in US president-elect Donald Trump’s cabinet, tea-leaf readings abound, especially with regard to the incoming administration’s hawkishness towards China.

To say that Beijing can cope with Trump’s return with consummate ease is surely an exaggeration. However, there is a strong case to be made that China is in a better strategic position than four years ago, when current US President Joe Biden took over from the first Trump administration and went on to continue his predecessor’s tariffs and sanctions against China.

With Trump returning to office, China can afford to be more patient than when Biden took power. It can wait for domestic politics in Washington to play out and for Trump to turn transactional as a self-styled master deal-maker.

Republicans have won control of both houses of Congress and the presidency, so Trump is likely to have a great deal of freedom to pursue many of his campaign promises. Even so, the odds are that he will founder on at least two of his most high-profile pledges: the mass deportation of undocumented immigrants and slashing the size of the federal government through the so-called Department of Government Efficiency.

It is clear that Trump aims to shake American society to its foundations. The country now hosts more than 11 million undocumented immigrants and, over time, they have become an indispensable part of the country’s societal fibre. It is thanks to their efforts that US cities can function at a bearable cost. If Tom Homan – Trump’s “border tsar” – follows through on the president-elect’s promises to the letter, it will lead to chaos across the country.

Meanwhile, Elon Musk – who Trump has chosen to lead the Department of Government Efficiency alongside Vivek Ramaswamy – has said his new unit could cut “at least US$2 trillion” from the US$6.75 trillion federal budget and that the number of federal agencies should be reduced from more than 400 to 99 or fewer.