By Opta Analyst | Created at 2026-06-03 11:27:04 | Updated at 2026-06-09 22:41:46
6 days ago
With the start of the 2026 FIFA World Cup close, we look at the Opta supercomputer’s Group B predictions for Canada, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Qatar and Switzerland. Who will make it out of the group stage to reach the knockouts?
Group B at the 2026 FIFA World Cup includes a number of relative minnows at this level. Switzerland are by far the most experienced team in the group, with 12 previous World Cup participations, but co-hosts Canada are appearing at the finals for only the third time, while Bosnia-Herzegovina and Qatar will be making their second appearances.
Does Switzerland’s World Cup familiarity make them the de facto favourites to progress from the group? If so, who is likeliest to join them and make a first World Cup knockout-stage appearance in the process?
We look at the Opta supercomputer’s predictions for Group B to answer those questions and more.
World Cup Group B Predictions
- Switzerland are favourites to progress, with an 85.4% chance, topping the group in 42.1% of simulations.
- With a 79.8% chance of progression, co-hosts Canada are deemed the second strongest side in the group by the supercomputer.
- Bosnia-Herzegovina cannot be counted out at 62.6%, but with an 8.9% chance of winning the group and 43.5% chance of making the last 32, Qatar’s progression would be a surprise.
Switzerland are regular participants at the World Cup, but it has been some time since they made a real impression on the tournament. They have reached the quarter-finals on three occasions, but not since 1954 when they were hosts. Since then, they have never made it past the second round.
Given the relative inexperience of the other teams in Group B, Switzerland have a strong chance of topping their group at the World Cup for only the second time, after 2006. They have a 42.1% chance of winning the group and an 85.4% likelihood of reaching the knockouts via any route.
Indeed, it would be a huge surprise if they didn’t make it to the next round. Along with France, they are one of only two European teams to have reached the knockouts at each of the last six major international tournaments.
The inclusions of Granit Xhaka and Ricardo Rodríguez mean there will be plenty of pedigree in Murat Yakin’s squad, with both set to appear at a fourth successive World Cup. But it will feel strange to watch a major tournament without Xherdan Shaqiri appearing for the Swiss; he retired from international football after Euro 2024, his seventh major international tournament.
Canada will kick this group off when they face Bosnia-Herzegovina at the Toronto Stadium on 12 June. They are appearing in back-to-back World Cups, having only participated in 1986 before this.
There are no positives to be found from their record at the tournament – they have lost all six games they have played – but the parity in Group B, coupled with their position as co-hosts, offers them a great opportunity for improvement.
The supercomputer pits them as the second-likeliest team to progress from Group B (79.8%). Their chances of topping the group (31.7%) or coming second (30.8%) are noticeably similar.
Jesse Marsch was not in charge of them during the 2022 World Cup, but this will nonetheless be his third major tournament as Canada’s head coach. They finished fourth at the 2024 Copa América and reached the quarter-finals of the 2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup before being eliminated by Guatemala.
Jonathan David will be their main danger, but after scoring at least 25 goals in all competitions in three consecutive seasons with Lille, he is coming off an underwhelming maiden campaign at Juventus, netting eight times in 46 games.
The supercomputer regards Bosnia-Herzegovina as the third strongest team in the group, with their chances of progressing sitting at 62.6%. They are deemed far more likely to finish bottom (30.5%) than they are top (17.3%).
With only one previous World Cup appearance to their name, at the 2014 edition, their form at the tournament isn’t particularly relevant. Instead, their record of 17 points from a possible 24 during the group stages qualification suggests they are no pushovers.
They nonetheless finished second to a strong Austria side, instead having to qualify via the play-off route, defeating Wales and Italy on penalties.
He may have celebrated his 40th birthday in March, but Edin Dzeko still has a lot to offer. Including the play-offs, he was Bosnia’s top scorer during qualifying with six goals. He is also fresh from helping Schalke return to the German Bundesliga with six goals and three assists in under 600 minutes of action after joining the club in January.
Qatar, who are making their second World Cup appearance after hosting the previous edition in 2022, are considered by the supercomputer to be the weakest side in the group. They are more likely to finish bottom of Group B (47.0%) than they are to qualify from it (43.5%).
What they may be able to offer under head coach Julen Lopetegui is entertainment. Among sides who played at least 10 games in the 2026 AFC World Cup qualifiers, Qatar’s games produced more goals per game than any other side (3.6).
*All prediction data is accurate as of 3 June 2026.
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