World Cup 2026: Group D Predictions and Preview

Group D at the 2026 FIFA World Cup contains Australia, Paraguay, Türkiye and co-hosts United States. Who will qualify for the knockout phase?

The latest edition of the FIFA World Cup takes place in Canada, Mexico and the USA between 11 June and 19 July. Group D gets under way on 12 June with co-hosts United States taking on Paraguay in Inglewood. Australia then face Türkiye in Vancouver the following day.

As you would imagine, none of these sides is among the favourites to win the World Cup in 2026. However, two or maybe three will reach the knockout stages, with each country having better than a coin-flip odds of advancing.

We look at the Opta supercomputer’s predictions here to see who is likeliest to emerge from Group D.

World Cup Group D Predictions

• The co-hosts are favourites to qualify for the knockout phase in Group D, with United States having a better than three-in-four chance of getting out of the group (77.0%).
• Mauricio Pochettino’s men are also predicted to finish first, with the Opta supercomputer giving them a 32.4% likelihood of topping Group D.
• Türkiye are second favourites to qualify (73.0%), ahead of Paraguay (64.3%) and Australia (58.8%).

United States might not win the World Cup this summer in their 12th appearance in the competition, but they have several performance targets at which to aim.

They are unlikely to match their peak performance. The US finished third in the first edition of the World Cup in 1930. A more achievable target is matching their best effort in the modern era, a quarter-final berth in 2002.

It would also ensure the United States better their finish when they previously hosted the tournament. In 1994, they were eliminated by eventual champions Brazil in the round of 16. Given the US have reached the knockout stage in each of their last three participations (2010, 2014, 2022), playing more than three matches this summer is a realistic aim.

While he enjoyed success as a club manager with Paris Saint-Germain, Mauricio Pochettino is a relative novice at this level. His only World Cup experience was as a player in 2002, which included conceding a penalty against England on Argentina’s way to being knocked out in the group stage.

Pochettino will hope Christian Pulisic repeats his heroics from four years ago. He was directly involved in all three of the United States’ goals at the 2022 World Cup, scoring once and delivering two assists.

Türkiye are only slightly less likely to qualify or top Group D than the US. They reached the tournament by beating Kosovo 1-0 in the final of their UEFA play-off path.

This is, perhaps surprisingly, only Türkiye’s third appearance at the World Cup. This seems odd as they finished third in 2002, their only other time at the tournament since 1954. Hakan Sükür scored after 11 seconds against South Korea in the third-place play-off 24 years ago, giving him the fastest goal in World Cup history.

Their opponents this summer will have to keep an eye on numerous threats. The 17 goals scored by Türkiye players during the UEFA 2026 World Cup qualifiers were bagged by 12 different men, with only Kerem Aktürkoglu, Kenan Yildiz (both three), and Merih Demiral (two) finding the net more than once.

Yildiz could be manager Vincenzo Montella’s key player. He was one of Juventus’ standout players in 2025-26, recording 20 goal involvements in 47 games in all competitions (11 goals, 9 assists).

Third favourites in Group D are Paraguay. While they are relative regulars, with this their ninth World Cup appearance, they haven’t been here since 2010. That year also delivered their best performance, a quarter-final exit to champions Spain.

Paraguay’s hopes of advancing may rest on whether they can turn the small margins in their favour. They haven’t conceded more than one goal in any of their last 10 World Cup matches, for one thing.

Gustavo Alfaro’s side also had the lowest goal difference (+4) and average possession (37.3%) among the six CONMEBOL teams to qualify for the 2026 World Cup. However, they hit the woodwork more than any other team (10 times), too.

If they need a goal, Alfaro will likely turn to Antonio Sanabria. He was the most prolific substitute in the CONMEBOL qualifiers, with three of his four goals scored after coming off the bench.

The most experienced World Cup side of recent times in this group is also its outsider. This is Australia’s sixth straight participation in the tournament (seventh overall).

They will need to make a better start this time, though. Australia have lost their opening match in five of their six previous World Cup participations. The only exception was their victory against Japan in 2006 (3-1). They also beat the Japanese in qualifying, only to finish second behind them in their third round of AFC qualification group.

The Socceroos will likely need to lean on their dead-ball expertise if they are to upset the odds. All five of Craig Goodwin’s assists during the qualifiers were from set-pieces (via three corners and two from free-kicks). This might be manager Tony Popovic’s first World Cup as a head coach, but who is in charge of set-plays?

*All prediction data is accurate as of 3 June 2026.

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