By Opta Analyst | Created at 2026-06-03 14:48:15 | Updated at 2026-06-09 20:04:39
6 days ago
Group E at the 2026 FIFA World Cup pits Ivory Coast, Curaçao, Ecuador and Germany together. Who will qualify for the next phase of the competition?
The 23rd edition of the FIFA World Cup takes place between 11 June and 19 July in Canada, Mexico and the United States of America.
Germany kick things off in Group E with a match against debutants Curaçao in Houston on 14 June. There’s then a game between Ivory Coast and Ecuador that evening in Philadelphia which is likely to be critical in determining who probably finishes second behind the Europeans.
The Opta supercomputer has a clear second favourite in this section of the World Cup draw. We’d better look at the predictions to see who that will be.
World Cup Group E Predictions
- It will be a seismic shock if Germany don’t make the knockout phase. Their chances of qualifying for the last 32 are rated at 96.1%.
- Germany also have a 59.9% probability of topping Group E based on the 10,000 pre-tournament simulations.
- The next likeliest qualifiers are Ecuador (86.9%), with Ivory Coast (64.2%) also having a strong chance.
- It will be quite the achievement if Curaçao (19.0%) manage to advance to the knockouts.
Germany’s pedigree in this competition has few equals. They will be making their 21st FIFA World Cup appearance, more than any other European nation and second to just Brazil (23) overall. The South Americans are the only side to have won the tournament on more occasions too, with five victories to Germany’s four.
Recent tournaments have not been so kind to Die Mannschaft, though. They failed to reach the knockout stages in 2018 and 2022 having been champions in 2014.
In fairness to Germany, they certainly created enough chances to advance four years ago. Their 3.4 expected goals (xG) per 90 minutes were the highest of any nation, ahead of Brazil (2.20) and eventual champions Argentina (2.15).
Although Germany played only three matches, they tallied the fourth-highest xG of any team (10.1) in Qatar 2022, underachieving that xG total by 4.1 goals (6 goals scored). That saw Germany end the tournament as the biggest underperformers in front of goal across all 32 teams.
Where manager Hansi Flick failed in Qatar, Julian Nagelsmann will hope to succeed in the United States. He steered Germany through qualifying comfortably enough, with five wins from six matches.
Much of their success was down to Newcastle’s Nick Woltemade, one of only two players (alongside Thelo Aasgaard) to attempt 4+ shots on target in the UEFA qualifiers and score them all. They were mostly important too, as three of his four goals opened the scoring.
With the likes of David Raum, Leroy Sané and Florian Wirtz on hand creatively, Germany should generate chances galore once again. They will need to convert them more prolifically this time around though.
Ecuador are also expected to make it into the round of 32. This would be a decent achievement for Sebastián Beccacece’s side, as their nation has been eliminated at the group stage in three of their four appearances.
The Ecuadorians finished second behind Argentina in the CONMEBOL qualifiers for the 2026 World Cup, equalling their best performance in a qualifying campaign for the tournament (2002).
They also boasted the strongest defence in the section, conceding just five goals across 18 matches, and lost the fewest matches. Even then, their defeats came away to Argentina and Brazil, so were hardly shock results.
Chelsea’s Moisés Caicedo was Ecuador’s top assister in qualifying, with three, but much will rest on veteran Enner Valencia. He has scored six of Ecuador’s last seven goals at the World Cup and bagged six with two assists in qualifying.
The other nation with a better-than-even chance of playing knockout football this summer is Ivory Coast, something they did not achieve in their first three appearances at the World Cup. As this is their first since 2014, a new generation of players could succeed where their predecessors failed.
Manager Emerse Faé was part of their 2006 squad but didn’t feature in Germany that year. Appointed in January 2024, midway through the Africa Cup of Nations, Faé led the team to victory in that tournament, before reaching the quarter-finals in the 2025 edition.
He has a team that is robust in defence and varied in attack. Ivory Coast did not concede a single goal in their 10 qualifying matches for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with 15 different players scoring at the other end.
The key man is perhaps Simon Adingra. He was one of two players to feature in every qualifier and was also in involved in more goals than any other Ivory Coast player (with two goals and three assists).
It’s arguably Curaçao who draw the most interest in this group, purely as they are the smallest nation by both area and population to ever reach the finals of the World Cup. What a story it will be if they can escape Group E.
As unlikely as that feels, don’t dismiss their chances too readily. Curaçao will be led by 78-year-old Dick Advocaat. He will become the oldest head coach in World Cup history, bringing a wealth of experience to a team that has none at this level.
They proved what a threat they can be in the qualifiers. No player created more chances from open play in CONCACAF qualifying than Juninho Bacuna (20). His efforts helped Curaçao lead the way for goals both expected (22.7) and actual (28). Their fans could have goals to cheer this summer, whatever else happens.
*All prediction data is accurate as of 3 June 2026.
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