By The Epoch Times | Created at 2026-09-25 18:41:48 | Updated at 2026-09-25 20:58:13
2 hours ago
Thirteen House races are considered more competitive after the nonpartisan Cook Political Report updated its ratings on Sept. 25, less than six weeks before the midterm elections. Republicans remain favored in 10 of them.
Cook also moved two Toss Up races, both in Republican-held seats, to Lean Democrat.
After the changes, Democrats are favored in 208 races and Republicans in 205, according to Cook. The remaining 22 races are rated Toss Up. Republicans hold 17 of those seats, and Democrats hold five. A party needs 218 seats for a majority.
“Typically, in midterm cycles the party out of power wins the majority of Toss Up races, which is our expectation this November,” Cook’s Erin Covey wrote.
“Even if the Toss Ups were to split evenly, Democrats would have the slimmest of majorities, with 219 seats. If Democrats sweep the Toss Ups, they'd hold 230 seats.”
“At this point in the cycle, Republicans would need to win a majority of Toss Up races to hold the House—not impossible, but incredibly difficult,” she wrote.
Cook put the most likely outcome at a Democratic gain of five to 15 seats. That would leave Democrats with 220 to 230 seats next year.
The two races that moved from Toss Up to Lean Democrat are New Jersey’s 7th District, held by Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-N.J.), and Arizona’s 1st District, an open seat.
Three races moved from Lean Republican to Toss Up: Texas’s 15th District, held by Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-Texas), and the open seats in North Carolina’s 11th District and Florida’s 22nd District.
Six races moved from Likely Republican to Lean Republican. They are the districts held by Reps. Jeff Crank (R-Colo.), Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.), Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Fla.), and Bryan Steil (R-Wis.), along with the open seats in Montana’s 1st District and Texas’s 35th District.
Four races moved from Solid Republican to Likely Republican. They are Virginia’s 5th District, held by Rep. John McGuire (R-Va.), and the open seats in Nevada’s 2nd District, New York’s 21st District, and Texas’s 9th District.
Covey wrote that the most competitive races are almost entirely in districts President Donald Trump won in 2024.
“But, in large part due to his handling of the economy, the president is now deeply underwater and is dragging down Republican House members and candidates across these districts,” she wrote.
Cook also said Republicans have advantages that could narrow their losses. After mid-decade redistricting in seven states, Republicans are “poised to easily flip three seats and are in a better position to pick up several more seats that were redrawn to favor them,” Covey wrote. New maps in California and Utah put Democrats in a strong position to flip four seats, which offsets those gains, according to Cook.
“Republicans’ cash advantage should help them limit their losses on Election Day, allowing them to shore up members who weren’t expecting serious challenges this cycle,” Covey wrote.
“And, particularly in races where Democrats haven’t had the funds to air ads defining themselves, Republicans can attempt to paint their opponents as too far to the left.”
Cook said its ratings will keep changing as more polling comes in and as television advertising that began in earnest this month takes effect.
Democrats’ House campaign arm said the changes show Republicans are in trouble.
“The floor is falling out from underneath House Republicans. After two years of raising costs and lying to the American people, they’ve all but assured that they will lose the majority in November,” Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee communications director Courtney Rice said in a statement.
Republicans’ House campaign arm dismissed the ratings in a statement to The Epoch Times.
“Nobody outside the D.C. bubble cares what a bunch of pundits slap on a race rating,” National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Mike Marinella said in an emailed statement.
“House races are won in the districts, and Republicans have the stronger ground game, air superiority across the battleground, and historic financial firepower, while Democrats are still begging for cash just to prop up their socialist bailout fund.”
