18 experts make second-half predictions: Playoff race shockers, MVP picks and more

The midway point of the 2024 NFL season is here. After nine weeks, the Kansas City Chiefs are still undefeated, rookie Jayden Daniels is making a serious run at MVP and there's no clear favorite in the NFC West. But a lot can happen over the next two months.

We asked 18 of our NFL analysts for their best second-half prediction. Which teams will shockingly make the playoffs? Who's making a strong case for one of the league's annual awards? What records could the Lions break this season? And which team could lose out the rest of the season to land the top draft pick?

Let's predict the second half of the season, starting with some playoff race calls.

Jump to:
Playoff races | Award winners
Continuing trends | NFC West
Record-breakers | NFL draft

How will the playoff races play out?

The Baltimore Ravens will make the Super Bowl with improved pass defense

The Ravens' defense is fifth worst in the league against the pass, and they've seen one of the highest dropback rates accordingly. That's not a good formula for running through an AFC that's riddled with star quarterbacks -- but I don't think those numbers will hold. Cornerback Nate Wiggins and linebacker Trenton Simpson are improving each week. Nickel cornerback Arthur Maulet is back from a knee injury, and I trust coordinator Zach Orr to find new subpackages that work. If their pass defense becomes even average, the 2024 Ravens can go all the way. -- Ben Solak, NFL analyst

The Kansas City Chiefs will be the No. 1 seed in AFC

The Chiefs will finish with the NFL's best record and earn home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. They haven't been as dominant as they were in the past, but the trade for DeAndre Hopkins to replace injured Rashee Rice and a top-five scoring defense can easily lead them to their ninth straight AFC West title. Kansas City is vying for New England's record of 11 straight division titles (2009-2019). -- Jason Reid, senior Andscape writer

The Miami Dolphins will claim an AFC wild-card spot

The Dolphins' roster has enough talent to wake up from a 2-6 slumber. The offense is averaging 27.0 points since Tua Tagovailoa returned in Week 8. On defense, the pass-rush injuries hurt, but safety Jevon Holland and defensive end Zach Sieler should be back soon. The schedule is also manageable as two of Miami's last nine games feature opponents with .500 records or worse. The Dolphins probably won't catch the Bills in the AFC East, but the seventh seed is gettable. -- Jeremy Fowler, national NFL reporter

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will earn an NFC wild-card spot

Despite the injuries to Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, the Bucs can bounce back from a 4-6 start. Evans should return in Week 12 from his hamstring injury, and their final seven games are exceedingly easy. They have two matchups with the Panthers, plus contests against the Raiders, Cowboys, Giants and Saints. The Buccaneers' toughest opponent will be the Chargers in Week 15. So going 10-7 is very realistic. -- Aaron Schatz, NFL analyst

The Pittsburgh Steelers will beat out the Cincinnati Bengals for an AFC wild-card spot

With a strong defense that just brought back Alex Highsmith and is led by Defensive Player of the Year front-runner T.J. Watt (-135, per ESPN BET), Pittsburgh's pass rush will continue to fluster opposing passers. Meanwhile, the offense has found its legs with Russell Wilson under center, and adding Mike Williams to the outside only bolsters the receiving corps. I see the Steelers splitting the series with Baltimore to lose the AFC North, but they'll fend off Cincinnati for a playoff berth. -- Liz Loza, fantasy analyst

Who will win the awards?

Lamar Jackson will win his third (second straight) MVP

As of now, Jackson's completion percentage (68.2%) would be a career high through a full season. The Ravens' quarterback is also on pace for a career high in touchdown passes (20 right now), a career low in interceptions (two right now) and a QBR (77.0) that would be second to his first MVP season of 2019. Jackson looks like a new man on a mission, and that mission is to win the Super Bowl. He'll distance himself from the rest of the field if he stays healthy and make the MVP choice obvious. -- Dan Graziano, national NFL reporter

Jared Goff will win his first MVP

Uncertainty clouded Goff's future when he went 3-10-1 after being traded to the Lions in 2021. Four seasons later, Goff says he's playing his best ball yet, as Detroit's 7-1 record is the team's best since 1956. Over the past six games, the Goff-led Lions offense has scored 26 touchdowns. In that same span, he has only 24 incompletions. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, Detroit is the only NFL team since at least 1933 to have more offensive TDs than incomplete passes over six games. -- Lindsey Thiry, national NFL reporter

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Rodgers impressed by Jared Goff's season in Detroit

Aaron Rodgers raves to Pat McAfee about Jared Goff's accuracy this season with the Detroit Lions.

Xavier McKinney will win Defensive Player of the Year

McKinney has been a difference-maker for Green Bay, using his range and ball skills to grab six interceptions, which is tied with Detroit's Kerby Joseph for the most in the league. And in Jeff Hafley's defensive system, McKinney will have more opportunities to make game-changing plays for a team that should make the playoffs. The Packers hit a home run when they signed McKinney this past offseason, upgrading their safety group. -- Matt Bowen, NFL analyst

Trey Hendrickson will win Defensive Player of the Year

The Bengals are 4-5, but Joe Burrow is playing the most efficient ball of his career with the league's second-best QBR (76.3). The defense has been their main issue. But Hendrickson can be a major part of that turnaround. He leads in the NFL in sacks (11) and is second in pass rush win rate (29.9%) to Aidan Hutchinson. If Hendrickson continues to put together a strong season, the Bengals can sneak into the playoffs. -- Seth Walder, analytics writer

Derrick Henry will win Offensive Player of the Year

Henry earned this honor in 2020 when he posted 2,027 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns. His blistering pace in the first half of 2024 has him already with 11 rushing touchdowns and 1,052 yards. He also has two receiving touchdowns; he had zero when he last won the award. His feats are even more impressive considering he's 30. It's good to be the King. -- Stephania Bell, fantasy writer/injury specialist

Jim Harbaugh will win his second Coach of the Year honor

The award typically goes to a coach who exceeds preseason expectations or turns a team around. Four of the past seven winners were in their first year with a new team and didn't have the league's best record. Harbaugh checks all of those boxes, as he has ushered in an era of grit and toughness for the Chargers. Los Angeles has already matched its five-win total from last season and is a serious playoff contender in the AFC. It also has one of the easiest remaining schedules. -- Eric Moody, fantasy/betting analyst

The Washington Commanders will sweep awards of MVP, Coach of the Year and Executive of the Year

The Commanders are amid one of the most unprecedented turnarounds by any NFL franchise. Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels is third in QBR (76.0), and their rushing attack produces the third-most rushing yards per game (163.9). They started shaky on defense, but new coach Dan Quinn has engineered them to the 11th-best scoring defense so far. General manager Adam Peters slowly built this roster into a contender over the offseason, and his trade for Marshon Lattimore could immediately improve their secondary.

I expect Washington to win the NFC East and make it to the NFC Championship Game, adding plenty of individual hardware along the way. -- Mike Tannenbaum, NFL analyst

What season trend could continue down the stretch?

The Detroit Lions will end the season with another streak of opponents losing their following game

Here's a fun one. On Sunday, the Titans became the first Lions opponent this season to win their following game, breaking a streak of six straight opponents who lost their next game after facing Detroit. The Lions' opponents weren't just losing -- they were losing big. There's something to be said about Detroit's physical style and play-action-heavy offense that creates residual fatigue for opposing defenses. -- Kalyn Kahler, national NFL reporter

What could happen in the NFC West?

The Arizona Cardinals will win the division

No division is tighter right now, as the Cardinals stand half a game up on the other three teams at 5-4. Arizona has put together an impressive offensive identity on the ground (149.7 rushing yards per game), and it is extremely disciplined (fewest average penalties per game). Plus, it is coming along on defense. With division wins over Los Angeles and San Francisco under their belt already, the Cardinals are in good shape to make a run to the playoffs. -- Field Yates, NFL analyst

The Los Angeles Rams will win the division

Los Angeles has rallied back from a rough 1-4 start; it is on a three-game winning streak and sits second in the NFC West. Sean McVay is moving Matthew Stafford out in the perimeter more than ever, designing bootlegs for the 36-year-old quarterback to find receivers in space. Kyren Williams has been the heartbeat of the offense, and Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are back from injury. Along with a young defensive line led by Braden Fiske and Jared Verse, the Rams can win the division if they stay healthy. -- Dan Orlovsky, NFL analyst

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What is the Rams' ceiling this season?

Stephen A. Smith, Dan Orlovsky and Shannon Sharpe debate the ceiling of the Rams this season.

The San Francisco 49ers will miss the playoffs

A season decimated by injuries will end with the reigning NFC champions missing the postseason and keeping the Super Bowl hangover trend alive for the losing team. Sitting at 4-4 after a bye week, the 49ers are without Brandon Aiyuk for the season and still have Christian McCaffrey on the sideline (though he could return this week). Their defense suddenly can't make key stops, either. This looks like a lost year in the Bay. -- Matt Miller, NFL draft analyst

What records could be broken this season?

Jared Goff will break Drew Brees' single-season record for completion percentage

Over the first five games, Goff's 83% competition percentage was an NFL record, according to ESPN Research (minimum 50 attempts). He leads the NFL with a 74.9% completion percentage, putting him on pace to eclipse Brees' 74.4% single-season mark set in 2018. And Goff isn't showing any signs of slowing down. He has completed 30 straight passes to his top target, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and can boost his numbers against the Colts and Jaguars (two struggling pass defenses) over the next three weeks. -- Seth Wickersham, NFL writer

Which team will have the No. 1 pick?

The Las Vegas Raiders will lose out and have the top pick in the 2025 NFL draft

After firing offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, a strong argument could be made they are already the worst team in the NFL. There are nine teams with two or fewer wins, which is tied for the most teams through Week 9 since the 1970 merger, per ESPN Research (nine teams in 2006). The Raiders have lost their past five games, and I expect that streak to climb to 13 by season's end. They'll have the No. 1 overall pick for the first time since 2007, when they selected JaMarcus Russell with the franchise's only top selection. -- Jordan Reid, NFL draft analyst