20 Million Dem Votes Are Missing From 2020 To 2024. Where’d They Go?

As votes continue to be counted, Donald Trump’s lead feels so massive that it’s hard to see how Kamala Harris didn’t significantly underperform the Biden Benchmark of 2020. She didn’t just blow it; she blew it bigly.

In 2020, there were 81+ million votes cast for Biden and 74+ million cast for Trump — a grand total of over 155 million votes. Currently, there’s about 138 million total votes counted for the 2024 cycle. Trump is less than 3 million short of his 2020 benchmark, meaning the bulk of the almost 20 million vote deficit is coming from the Harris camp. Of course, votes in some of the big blue states will continue to trickle in for days (or weeks?!) after the fact, and Harris’ final count will continue to rise. But this is still a drastic difference for the morning after; where the hell did all these Biden loyalists go? (Stream ‘Cleaning Up Kamala’ here)

Out of 3,144 counties, Kamala Harris is underperforming Biden’s 2020 in every single one 🤯 pic.twitter.com/YnSMQCCGUC

— Daniel Vassallo (@dvassallo) November 6, 2024

The West Coast is most glaring: Harris is over 800,000 votes short of 2020 numbers in Washington (64% reporting);  400,000 votes short in Oregon (73% reporting); 500,000 votes short in Colorado (76% reporting); and a whopping 5.5 million votes short in California (58% reporting). This will likely continue to narrow. But take California, where the split is 57% to 40% Harris. If she stays on the same trajectory, that will still put her almost 2 million shy of Biden’s 11+ million votes in the state. Even if she ramps it up to Biden’s 63% to 34%, that’s only 10.3 million votes for Harris.

Yet even states with high reporting still show Harris significantly behind. At 99% reporting, Harris is about 450,000 votes shy of Biden in Texas. At 94% reporting, she’s down almost 1 million votes in New York. She’s down about 650,000 votes in Illinois with 91% of the vote in, and down roughly the same in Florida with 99% reporting.

Across the Sunbelt states of Arizona (64% reporting), Louisiana (99% reporting), Mississippi (73% reporting), Alabama (99% reporting) and Georgia (99% reporting), she’s down roughly another 600,000 votes combined.

Heading up to the north, Harris trails in Maryland (82% reporting) by an additional 500,000 votes. She’s down about 200,000 votes in Virginia (99% reporting), but that has nothing on New Jersey. At 90% reporting, Harris is about 500,00 votes shy of Biden in the state. At 93% reporting, Harris is about 300,000 votes down in deep blue Massachusetts, and another 200,000 shy in Connecticut (85% reporting). In Ohio (96% reporting), she’s down roughly another 200,00 thousand votes.

There are smaller deficits elsewhere, but add it all together, and you’ll get pretty close to the total margin from 2020. Remember, the numbers are going to continue narrowing, but any way you cut it: this is a bad, bad night for Harris.