By Axios | Created at 2024-10-22 09:02:11 | Updated at 2024-10-22 11:29:18
2 hours ago
This year is all but certain to be the planet's warmest on record — narrowly beating 2023 as the hottest since at least the 19th century.
Why it matters: NASA's top climate scientist, Gavin Schmidt, estimates that the chance of a new annual record being set in 2024 is greater than 99%.
Zoom in: Last month was the second-warmest September on record. Global average temperatures were exceeded only by the year before.
- NASA's monthly climate data, along with NOAA's, was delayed after Hurricane Helene.
- NASA uses some information from NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information in Asheville, which was temporarily knocked offline by the extensive flooding in that city.
Between the lines: Other climate data through August tells the same story. Europe's Copernicus Climate Service said in August that 2024 will most likely be the warmest year in its data set as well.
- It is expected that NOAA's numbers, when released, will come with a revised official projection for 2024's ranking with a similar result.
🔭 Zoom out: Annual rankings reflect the influences of natural climate fluctuations, such as El Niño, combined with long-term human-caused warming.
- Scientists examine 30-year timescales to study climate change closely.
