2026 NFL Week 5 Best Bets, Expert Picks: Back Purdy, CMC Passing Connection

There is a big-time showdown looming in the NFC West this weekend, when the undefeated 49ers travel to the Pacific Northwest to see the defending champion Seahawks on their home turf.

I, like all football fans, will have my eyes on that game, but there is one more lower-profile tilt that has piqued my interest as well. 

Let's dive into how I'm wagering on the weekend.

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Whenever the 49ers play against a good-to-great defense, I tend to lean toward Christian McCaffrey props. 

While Brock Purdy is playing fantastic this season, the engine and core of this offense is McCaffrey. Defenses know this as well, but it’s still difficult for opposing teams to stop the production. 

One prop I target is McCaffrey as a receiver. With the Niners' limited weapons on the edge, they tend to turn toward CMC to help in the passing game. He had nine and six catches last season against the Seahawks. You can even look at games against the Rams in which CMC had eight targets this year, then 10 and nine last season.

The Detroit defense is putrid this season. 

It is near the bottom of the NFL in nearly every statistical category and there’s no end in sight to its woes. There’s no magic pill to make it better and even if/when it does get some starters back in the secondary, I don’t think it’s going to change things. 

We know it won’t be any different this Sunday at Arizona. The Lions have allowed 30 to the Saints, 41 to Buffalo, 24 to the lowly Jets and then 32 this past weekend to the Panthers. 

The Cardinals might not be great on offense, but they are feisty enough. They scored 30 against the 49ers and just put up 24 against the Giants with the chance to get to 31 if they were able to score late. A pick-six on the final play of the game made it a double-digit Giants win. 

I don’t see a path to the Lions stopping the Cardinals enough in this game to be a 5.5-point favorite.

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