Aging Americans Could Return 14 Million Homes to Market Over Next Decade, Report Says

Aging baby boomers and members of the Silent Generation are expected to release nearly 14 million homes back into the U.S. housing market over the next decade, providing a meaningful boost to supply but relatively little relief for first-time buyers, a new study suggests.

The number of homes owned and occupied by those two generations is expected to fall from 36.7 million in 2026 to 22.8 million by 2036, according to an analysis published on Oct. 5 by Realtor.com.

That roughly translates to an average of about 1.39 million homes vacated each year as their elderly owners die, move into institutional care, combine households, or switch to rental housing.

The pace is expected to accelerate over time, from roughly 1.27 million homes in 2027 to 1.52 million in 2036 as more boomers enter their 80s.

The projected handoff is much larger than what was seen in the previous decade. Realtor.com estimates that boomers and the Silent Generation released about 8 million homes from 2016 to 2026, meaning the total expected over the next decade would be about 74 percent higher.

Those additional homes could provide meaningful relief for an existing-home market where inventory remains tight.

Realtor.com counted 5.72 million unique homes listed between July 2025 and June 2026, about 570,000 fewer than the annual pre-pandemic average.

The firm estimates that if 44.8 percent of the homes released by older owners in 2027 reached the open market, that alone could restore total listings to pre-pandemic levels, all else being equal.

Few Starter Homes Expected

For homebuyers, however, the benefit they might get from the so-called “silver tsunami”—or “more like a tide, bringing a gradual exit,” as Freddie Mac describes it—could vary sharply depending on the type of home they look for.

According to the Realtor.com analysis, most of the coming supply consists of larger properties.

Of the 13.9 million homes expected to be released, about 9.9 million—or 71 percent—are three- or four-bedroom family homes, Realtor.com said. Another 3.6 million have five bedrooms or more.

Only about 380,000 are expected to be starter homes with two bedrooms or fewer, averaging roughly 38,000 per year.

That means the generational handoff is unlikely to substantially improve affordability for first-time buyers, who are more likely to compete for smaller and less expensive homes.

Realtor.com noted that starter-home listings between July 2025 and June 2026 remained about 10 percent below their pre-pandemic average. At the same time, the median listing price for a zero- to two-bedroom home was about 65 percent, or roughly $118,000, above its pre-pandemic level.

“Together, these patterns point to a shortage of affordable starter homes, not simply a shortage of starter homes: as remaining inventory has drifted toward higher price points, entry-level buyers are increasingly priced out, leaving more listings unsold,” said economist Jiayi Xu, author of the report.

Older owners also appear more likely to hold onto smaller homes. Realtor.com estimates a 70.7 percent 10-year retention rate for starter homes, compared with 61.2 percent for three- to four-bedroom properties.

One reason may be that older homeowners are more likely to own smaller houses outright. Among owners ages 70 to 79, nearly 73 percent of starter-home owners had no mortgage, compared with 65 percent of family-home owners and about 59 percent of those with homes containing five or more bedrooms.

A 2024 survey by Freddie Mac similarly found a strong preference among older Americans to remain in their homes, with about 68 percent of baby boomer homeowners saying they are likely to age in place.