Anti-U.S. axis splits over Trump vs. Harris

Russia and Iran are close partners in Ukraine and in the Middle East, but they're intervening on opposite sides in the U.S. election.

Why it matters: An emerging axis of U.S. adversaries and rivals, including China and North Korea, has moved closer together on a number of fronts in recent years — but not when it comes to partisan U.S. politics.

The big picture: China, Iran and Russia are all spreading disinformation to sow discord and cast doubts on the legitimacy of the U.S. election. They're even using some of the same tactics: all three have employed AI to create deceiving content, U.S. intelligence officials said this week.

• China is attempting to damage U.S. democracy but not necessarily help either candidate, the officials said.

Zoom in: This has "become an election of Iran vs. Trump and Russia vs. Harris," Microsoft President Brad Smith testified to the Senate Intelligence Committee last week.

• While the intelligence officials said Russia is running the largest-scale and most sophisticated disinformation campaign, Iran's aggressive tactics make it arguably the biggest foreign threat to the 2024 election, Axios' Sam Sabin reports.

Driving the news: Former President Trump's campaign received an intelligence briefing Tuesday on Iranian threats against him, which the campaign said included alleged threats to "assassinate him in an effort to destabilize and sow chaos in the United States."

• Iranian hackers also stole information about Trump's campaign and offered it to media outlets and Democratic operatives — a move straight out of the Russian playbook. That material has not been published.

Flashback: During his first term, Trump pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal, pursued a "maximum pressure" sanctions policy and ordered the assassination of Gen. Qassem Soleimani, for which Tehran has vowed revenge.

What they're saying: The Trump campaign has been weaponizing Iran's interference to attack Vice President Harris, claiming Tehran "loves" her "weakness."

• Harris, meanwhile, claimed during this month's debate that dictators like Russia's Vladimir Putin are "rooting for" Trump because they know they can manipulate him.

The other side: Russia is aiming the full force of its disinformation campaign at harming Harris, according to a recent report from Microsoft — making this the third straight election in which Moscow has targeted the Democratic nominee for president.

• The Russian efforts include covertly funneling money via shell companies to right-wing influencers in the U.S. to make videos on topics like "migrant crime," according to a federal indictment unveiled this month.
• Other tactics include circulating manipulated videos of Harris on social media, and targeting swing state voters with Trump-friendly messaging.

Reality check: That sort of foreign disinformation is now flooding into every U.S. election cycle, though it's impossible to assess its influence on voters.

Between the lines: Harris has vowed to continue military support to Ukraine, building on President Biden's efforts to strengthen Europe's security and push back against Russian aggression.

• Trump has repeatedly criticized Ukraine aid, declined to say whether he wants Ukraine to win the war and highlighted his "good relationship" with Putin.
• Trump's running mate, Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), has been one of the GOP's most outspoken critics of Ukraine, advocating for a swift peace settlement that would likely force Kyiv to give up territory.

The intrigue: House Republicans on Wednesday accused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky of a less clandestine style of election interference after he visited an ammunition plant in Pennsylvania, flanked by Democratic officials.

• The GOP is also furious about an interview with The New Yorker in which Zelensky called Vance "too radical" and suggested Trump "doesn't really know how to stop the war even if he might think he knows how."

The bottom line: Leaders in China, Iran and Russia all want to weaken U.S. power — a common cause that has helped bring them closer together in recent years.

• But their narrower interests and objectives can still lead them in opposite directions, as November's election shows.