By Opta Analyst | Created at 2026-07-18 17:28:12 | Updated at 2026-08-02 19:00:05
2 weeks ago
The defending world champions have made it to the final, despite looking close to elimination multiple times during this World Cup.
You can just never count them out.
In the last 32 of the 2026 World Cup, Argentina were taken to extra-time by Cape Verde, pegged back to 1-1 and 2-2 by the tournament debutants, but eventually they came through as 3-2 victors.
They had an even bigger scare in the last 16, trailing Egypt 2-0 with just over 10 minutes remaining, only to somehow come back and win 3-2. It was the latest any team had ever been 2+ goals down in a FIFA World Cup game and come back to win without going to extra-time.
According to Opta’s win probability data, Argentina had just a 0.6% chance of winning at the time of Cristian Romero’s goal to make it 2-1.
They didn’t trail against Switzerland, but after the Swiss made it 1-1, Argentina looked to be on the ropes. Then Breel Embolo received a second yellow card for simulation and Argentina were able to come through again in extra-time.
Lionel Scaloni’s men made it to the semi-finals to face old rivals England, who were familiar with recovering to win games at this tournament themselves.
The game took a while to get going. In fact, it was the first men’s World Cup match on record (since 1966) not to see a single shot in the first 30 minutes.
By half-time, unsurprisingly with the game goalless, the combined xG between England and Argentina was just 0.08 – the lowest in the first half of a World Cup knockout match on record (since 1966).
Then the game seemed to take a significant turn when Anthony Gordon put England ahead in the 55th minute in Atlanta. Argentina had shown so little in the final third up to that point that surely something had to change, and it did.
Argentina had just five shots to that point, but had another 10 after that as they ramped up the pressure on Thomas Tuchel’s side. The England boss noticeably went far more defensive after his team went ahead, bringing on Ezri Konsa, Dan Burn and Nico O’Reilly for Gordon, Declan Rice and Reece James.
Scaloni’s men started moving the ball about comfortably, not just taking advantage of England allowing them possession around the Three Lions’ penalty area, but showing the confidence that comes with knowing that you’re more than capable of overturning a deficit.
The Argentina boss, understandably, made attacking changes, bringing Nico González, Rodrigo De Paul and Lautaro Martínez on. All three made a difference, especially Martínez.
Enzo Fernández equalised with a tremendous effort from range, before Martínez headed in an injury-time winner to the great delight of La Albiceleste players and fans.
It had been more than coming. From Gordon’s opener in the 55th minute to Martínez’s winner in the 92nd, Argentina had a whopping 88% possession.
12% – Average possession between Anthony Gordon's opener and Lautaro Martínez's winner (55th to 92nd minute):
12% – 🏴 England
88% – 🇦🇷 Argentina
Trapped. pic.twitter.com/J5S9wlHCpx
Argentina had been trailing until the 85th minute, the latest a team has been behind before going on to win in normal time in a World Cup semi-final.
Lionel Messi provided both assists, which was hardly a surprise. The 39-year-old had orchestrated their 3-2 comeback against Egypt as well, and despite having very little impact on this game until the last half hour, he stepped up again when it mattered to unlock the deep-lying Three Lions.
Messi now has 12 World Cup assists to his name, at least four more than any other player in the competition’s history.
He has also now either scored or assisted a goal in each of his last 13 appearances for club and country, the second longest run of his senior career after a 14-game streak ending in March 2011. Messi really is not slowing down, and has another World Cup final to look forward to.
The post-mortem will be harsh on England, but they came up against a team who always seem to find a way.
It will be a fascinating final on Sunday between an Argentina team who have such intestinal fortitude, against Spain, who beat France in the other semi-final and equalled Italy’s run of 37 games between October 2018 and September 2021 for the joint-longest unbeaten streak by a European nation in history (both W28 D9).
Something has got to give, but as long as Messi and Argentina are on the field, you really can never count them out.
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