By Opta Analyst | Created at 2026-07-18 17:28:13 | Updated at 2026-08-02 15:29:34
3 weeks ago
Lionel Messi and Argentina are still in the FIFA World Cup, albeit by the skin of their teeth. We look ahead to Saturday’s quarter-final clash with our Argentina vs Switzerland prediction and preview.
Argentina vs Switzerland: The Key Insights
- Argentina overcame Switzerland across 90 minutes in 57.7% of the Opta supercomputer‘s 25,000 pre-match simulations.
- Switzerland have never won against Argentina in seven attempts across all competitions.
- Argentina have not lost in 11 World Cup matches, their longest undefeated streak in history.
Argentina’s dramatic World Cup defence continues when they meet Switzerland in Sunday’s quarter-final in Kansas.
Having scraped a nervy extra-time victory over Cape Verde, Argentina escaped another upset after coming from 2-0 down with 12 minutes remaining to beat Egypt 3-2. It was the latest a side had trailed by two-plus goals and gone on to win a World Cup game in normal time.
Lionel Messi teed up Cristian Romero’s 79th-minute header, then the Argentina captain swept in the leveller soon after, before Enzo Fernández’s stoppage-time winner capped a remarkable turnaround.
Messi was reduced to tears – perhaps tears of relief – at full-time after making more history. The 39-year-old became the first player to score in six straight World Cup knockout matches, as well as for a record-extending ninth game at the finals overall.
He did claim an unwanted record, though. After seeing a first-half penalty saved by Egypt’s Mostafa Shobeir and missing a spot-kick against Austria in Group J, Messi became the only player in history to fail to convert two penalties at a single edition of the World Cup.
Messi could set another benchmark next time out. His eight goals at the 2026 edition are the most of any player before the quarter-finals, while only Brazil’s Ademir (9 in 1950) has ever scored more at a single World Cup among all South Americans.
With Messi, Lautaro Martínez and Julián Alvarez leading the line, it’s no surprise that Argentina have scored in each of their last 14 World Cup games since losing 3-0 to Croatia in the 2018 group stages.
In fact, Argentina have scored at least twice in each of their last 11 outings, the joint-longest run of scoring multiple goals in the competition’s history (Uruguay also had 11 between 1930 and 1954).
They are unbeaten in those last 11 matches at the finals (W9 D2), their longest run in competition history, since a shock 2-1 defeat to Saudi Arabia in their opening game of the 2022 World Cup.
There may be some defensive concerns for Lionel Scaloni, however. Of the remaining quarter-finalists, only Spain (5) have faced fewer shots on target than Argentina’s nine, but they have conceded five times from those efforts.
Only the already eliminated pair, Uzbekistan (65% – 11/17) and Tunisia (63% – 12/19), have conceded from a higher share of their shots on target faced at this tournament than Argentina’s 56% (5/9), and it could be a long way back should they fall behind here.
Indeed, Switzerland are the only team yet to trail at any point across the 2026 World Cup campaign, including both qualifiers and finals. An outstanding run totals 11 matches across six qualifiers and five matches so far at the finals.
Murat Yakin’s side kept Colombia at bay for 120 minutes in Tuesday’s goalless last-16 draw before triumphing 4-3 on penalties, with Gregor Kobel making one crucial stop.
Sunday will mark Switzerland’s first World Cup quarter-final appearance since 1954, but the occasion should not overawe Yakin’s squad, which is filled with significant experience and quality.
Ricardo Rodríguez, who will be tasked with facing Messi, has made 31 appearances at major tournaments since the start of the 2014 World Cup. Before the last-eight stage commences, only England’s Harry Kane (33) has featured more among all European outfield players.
Key figure Granit Xhaka has made more line-breaking passes in the final third than any other player at this edition (50). Only Rodri (80) has made more line-breaking passes than the Swiss captain overall (75).
Further forward, Breel Embolo has been involved in 13 goals in his last 17 international games across all competitions, scoring 11 and assisting two, though he did fail to have a single shot and managed just one touch in Colombia’s box across 87 minutes.
Argentina vs Switzerland Head-to-Head
It will be a tough ask for Switzerland, who have failed to win any of their seven meetings with Argentina across all competitions, drawing two and losing five.
They’ve only faced Russia more often without ever winning in their history (12 times, including games vs USSR).
Argentina have also won both of their World Cup games against Switzerland – 2-0 in 1966 and 1-0 in 2014 in the last meeting between the sides in any competition.
But Switzerland’s struggles are not just against Argentina; they have won only one of 10 World Cup matches against South American opposition (D3 L6). That sole victory came in a 2-1 win over Ecuador in 2014, though they did progress past Colombia in the last round.
Argentina vs Switzerland Prediction
Argentina have seemingly made a habit of bucking any expected probabilities, but the Opta supercomputer gives them a 57.7% chance of victory in normal time.
The same 25,000 pre-match simulations afforded Switzerland an 18.0% likelihood of winning in 90 minutes, with the draw accounting for the rest of the scenarios in 24.3%.
Overall, Argentina have a 70.5% probability of keeping their title defence alive, while Switzerland set up a semi-final against either England or Norway in 29.5% of simulations.
Argentina vs Switzerland Squads
Argentina: Juan Musso, Gerónimo Rulli, Emiliano Martínez, Nicolás Tagliafico, Gonzalo Montiel, Lisandro Martínez, Cristian Romero, Nicolás Otamendi, Facundo Medina, Nahuel Molina, Leandro Paredes, Rodrigo De Paul, Valentín Barco, Giovani Lo Celso, Exequiel Palacios, Thiago Almada, Alexis Mac Allister, Enzo Fernández, Julián Alvarez, Lionel Messi, Nico González, Giuliano Simeone, Nico Paz, José Manuel López, Lautaro Martínez.
Switzerland: Gregor Kobel, Yvon Mvogo, Marvin Keller, Miro Muheim, Silvan Widmer, Nico Elvedi, Manuel Akanji, Ricardo Rodríguez, Eray Cömert, Aurèle Amenda, Luca Jaquez, Denis Zakaria, Remo Freuler, Johan Manzambi, Granit Xhaka, Ardon Jashari, Djibril Sow, Christian Fassnacht, Rubén Vargas, Michel Aebischer, Fabian Rieder, Breel Embolo, Dan Ndoye, Noah Okafor, Zeki Amdouni, Cedric Itten.
Argentina vs Switzerland Predicted Lineups
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