By Opta Analyst | Created at 2026-09-04 12:59:16 | Updated at 2026-09-04 13:29:59
38 minutes ago
We look ahead to Sunday’s Premier League game at the Emirates with our Arsenal vs Chelsea prediction and preview. Both teams have a perfect record so far, but who will blink first?
Arsenal vs Chelsea: The Key Stats
- Arsenal are expected to make it three wins from three in the Premier League this weekend, with the Opta supercomputer giving them a 57.4% chance of victory.
- The Gunners have lost just one of their last 29 London derbies in the top flight (W22 D6) and are unbeaten in their last 16 (W12 D4).
- Chelsea have lost their last four away Premier League games against Arsenal by an aggregate score of 11-2.
It is still early days in the Premier League, but heading into the weekend, only four teams still have a 100% record, with two of those facing off at Emirates Stadium on Sunday.
Reigning champions Arsenal have set down an early marker in their title defence with back-to-back wins over Coventry City and Aston Villa without conceding a goal.
By contrast, Xabi Alonso has overseen two thrillers in the Premier League already, with Chelsea getting past Fulham and Brighton in high-scoring games. They also beat Luton Town in the EFL Cup to keep the Spaniard’s perfect start.
The Blues last won their opening four games of a season in 2016-17 (Antonio Conte’s first four), and their opening three Premier League games in 2018-19 (under Maurizio Sarri), and Alonso will be aiming to replicate that and send out a message about Chelsea’s intent this campaign.
They have certainly kept things interesting so far. Chelsea’s two league matches this season have seen 12 goals (7 for, 5 against), the joint-third most in a side’s first two games of a Premier League campaign, behind only Arsenal in 2004-05 (13) and Leeds United in 2020-21 (14).
Indeed, Chelsea could become the first side to see their opening three games of a top-flight season all have 5+ goals since the Gunners in 1988-89.
Defensively, though, Alonso may already have some worries.
They have gone 18 Premier League games without a clean sheet, their longest run without a shutout in league competition since a run of 31 matches between November 1960 and August 1961.
Emiliano Martínez was brought straight into the starting line-up against Brighton last time out, having been announced hours before kick-off, and he will be hoping for a shutout against his former club.
But up top, Chelsea have been dynamic going forward, with João Pedro, Morgan Rogers and Cole Palmer already looking seamless in their link-up.
João Pedro has scored and assisted in both of Chelsea’s Premier League games this season, the first player to do so in the club’s first two matches of a campaign.
And Palmer is chasing a landmark goal. He’s scored 49 goals in 98 Premier League games for Chelsea. Only two players have reached 50 for the Blues in fewer than 100 games – Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink (84) and Diego Costa (85).
But they will have to be at their absolute best to break through Arsenal’s solid defence, who have picked up where they left off last season.
Across the first two matchdays of 2026-27, Arsenal faced the fewest shots (11), the fewest shots on target (1) and allowed their opponents the lowest expected goals (0.54 xG) of any Premier League side.
Since the start of 2022-23, the Gunners have had 16 games where their opponents haven’t had a shot on target – twice as many as any other side (Liverpool, 8) – including their match against Villa last time out.
David Raya kept his 50th Premier League clean sheet for Arsenal in that game, doing so in his 109th outing. Only four goalkeepers – Petr Cech with Chelsea (82), Pepe Reina with Liverpool (92), Ederson with Manchester City (106) and Peter Schmeichel with Manchester United (108) – have needed fewer starts to reach 50 clean sheets for a specific club in the competition’s history.
Since the start of March, Arsenal have kept eight Premier League clean sheets – three more than any other side. The only side in Europe’s big five leagues with more is Juventus (9).
They also have the quality at the top end of the pitch to cause Chelsea problems, with Bukayo Saka starting the season with a bang.
He’s scored in each of his last two Premier League appearances, last scoring in more consecutive games in January/February 2024 (five straight).
Only once in the last 21 seasons have Arsenal started their campaign with three wins, doing so in 2022-23, and Arteta will be keen to ensure that 2026-27 is added to that list.
Arsenal vs Chelsea Head-to-Head
Arsenal are unbeaten in their last nine Premier League matches against Chelsea (W6 D3). It’s their best unbeaten run against the Blues since a run of 19 between 1995 and 2005.
And Chelsea have lost their last four away Premier League games against Arsenal by an aggregate score of 11-2.
Their last win at the Emirates in the top flight was back in August 2021, a 2-0 victory.
Arsenal have lost just one of their last 29 Premier League London derbies (W22 D6) and are unbeaten in their last 16 (W12 D4). The last side to have a longer unbeaten run was the Gunners themselves between August 2022 and November 2023 (17 games).
Arsenal vs Chelsea Prediction
Given Arsenal’s recent record against Chelsea, as well as their strong start to the season, they’re expected to triumph on Sunday.
The supercomputer gives them a 57.4% chance of victory at the Emirates, compared to Chelsea’s 19.2%.
Arsenal vs Chelsea Predicted Lineups
Arsenal: David Raya, Ben White, Ezri Konsa, Gabriel Magalhães, Riccardo Calafiori, Declan Rice, Myles Lewis-Skelly, Martin Ødegaard, Bukayo Saka, Christos Tzolis, Kai Havertz.
Head coach: Mikel Arteta
Chelsea: Emiliano Martínez, Wesley Fofana, Maxence Lacroix, Levi Colwill, Pedro Neto, Malo Gusto, Roméo Lavia, Jorrel Hato, Cole Palmer, Morgan Rogers, Joao Pedro.
Head coach: Xabi Alonso
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world, and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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