Arsenal vs Everton Prediction

Mikel Arteta’s men are eyeing up a win that would take them second in the table. We look ahead to Saturday’s Premier League game at the Emirates Stadium with our Arsenal vs Everton prediction and preview.

Arsenal vs Everton Stats: The Key Insights

• The Opta supercomputer makes Arsenal the overwhelming favourites for this match, with the home side taking all three points in 72.7% of simulations.
• Arsenal’s 102 wins against Everton is the most any side has beaten another in English top-flight history.
• Everton have failed to score in each of their last three Premier League away matches.

After dropping points in the Premier League last weekend, Arsenal have the chance to move second in the table when they face Everton at home on Saturday.

The Gunners’ slight wobble before the November international break looks like it is now behind them. They are unbeaten in six games since then, though a 1-1 draw with Fulham last Sunday in the Premier League ended a four-match winning streak.

Their comfortable 3-0 victory over Monaco in the Champions League on Wednesday further boosted their confidence, and a return to the Emirates in the top-flight will no doubt aid their title charge. Arsenal have won 81% of their Premier League home matches in 2024 (W13 D2 L1), which is their best home win percentage since 2007 (84% after winning 16 of their 19 games),.

Although Arsenal generated 1.97 expected goals from open play against Monaco – their most in a match since the away win at Sporting, and their most at home since Leicester in September – they will still pose a significant threat from set-pieces.

Arteta’s men have scored more goals via corners than any other side since the start of last season (23), doing so in each of their previous three league games (four goals, including two in their home victory over Manchester United). Never before though, have they done so in four consecutive matches.

However, Everton could play them at their own game, as eight of their 14 Premier League goals this season have been scored via set-pieces (57%). It is the highest percentage by a team in a campaign since West Brom in 2014-15 (61%).

The Toffees are looking to make it back-to-back wins in the top-flight, with their last outing a much-needed 4-0 victory over Wolves due to the postponement of the Merseyside derby.

Sean Dyche’s side have struggled on the road this term though, having failed to score in each of their last three away Premier League matches, attempting 42 shots with an overall xG value of 3.26 without success.

They are the only side that haven’t hit the back of the net away from home since the start of November, while it has been two years since they failed to score in four such matches in a row.

So, it should not be a surprise that their only Premier League away win in 2024 came at promoted Ipswich Town in October (D6 L9), with their last three away wins coming against teams starting the day in the bottom six. They’ve won just one of their last 39 games against teams starting the day in the top three.

In team news, Riccardo Calafiori, Gabriel Magalhães and Oleksandr Zinchenko all missed the midweek game against Monaco and are uncertain, while Ben White and Takehiro Tomiyasu are still out.

For Everton, there’s a chance defender Michael Keane will be back from a knee injury, but James Garner and Tim Iroegbunam are expected to miss the trip.

Arsenal vs Everton Head-to-Head

After four defeats in five Premier League games against Everton between 2020 and 2023 (W1), Arsenal have won each of their last three against the Toffees.

Arsenal’s 102 wins against Everton is the most any side has beaten another in English top-flight history. Their 344 top-flight goals against them is also the most.

It gets worse for Everton on their travels, as they’ve won just one of their last 28 Premier League away games against Arsenal (D4 L23), picking up a 1-0 victory in April 2021.

Arsenal vs Everton Prediction

Arsenal are expected to return to winning ways in the Premier League on Saturday. They beat Everton in 72.7% of the Opta supercomputer’s 10,000 pre-match simulations.

Given their recent struggles on their travels, Everton are given just an 10.6% chance of returning to Merseyside with all three points, with the other 16.7% of simulations ending in a draw.

Arsenal vs Everton Predicted Lineups

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off on Saturday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

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