By Opta Analyst | Created at 2026-10-08 09:39:49 | Updated at 2026-10-08 10:26:41
47 minutes ago
We look ahead to Saturday’s Premier League match at the Emirates Stadium with our Arsenal vs Leeds prediction and preview. Can the champions return to winning ways?
Arsenal vs Leeds: The Key Stats
- The Opta supercomputer has calculated that Arsenal have a 68.9% win probability, while Leeds United have a 13.7% chance of pulling off an upset.
- Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta has won all four of his Premier League games against Daniel Farke, his joint-best 100% win rate against any top-flight manager.
- Leeds have started a league campaign unbeaten in five matches (W2 D3) for the first time since their promotion-winning Championship campaign of 2019-20 under Marcelo Bielsa.
Arsenal will be hoping to have another reason to celebrate when they take on Leeds United in the Premier League in their first match since Mikel Arteta signed a new contract at the club.
Arteta, who took over the Gunners in 2019 and led them to FA Cup glory in 2020 and the Premier League title last season, put pen to paper on a new contract on Wednesday that runs until June 2030.
The news of Arteta’s extension will no doubt mean the Emirates will be buzzing when the Gunners get back to action after the three-week international break, even though their last outing was a shock 3-0 defeat to Brighton.
That was their heaviest defeat since May 2023, when they also went down 3-0 to Brighton. But since the start of 2024, Arteta’s men have only lost back-to-back Premier League games once (in April this year).
The defeat to the Seagulls ended Arsenal’s seven-game winning streak from the start of the season, a run that included a 3-0 victory over Manchester City in the Community Shield.
Martin Ødegaard and Kai Havertz have both scored in each of Arsenal’s two home league games this season – a 3-0 success against Coventry City to start the campaign and a 2-1 victory versus Chelsea in September.
The only time a pair of teammates have both scored in each of their opening three home matches in a Premier League season was when Andy Cole and Rob Lee managed it for Newcastle United in 1994-95.
Havertz, however, is expected to miss out against Leeds after sustaining a hamstring injury while on Germany duty – a fate shared by Greece winger Christos Tzolis.
There were also concerns when Ødegaard sustained an ankle injury in Norway’s 2-1 loss to Portugal in the UEFA Nations League on Sunday, but he is expected to be fit.
Viktor Gyökeres could therefore make his first Premier League start of the season, and will be hoping to continue the form that saw him score four goals in as many matches for Sweden during the international break.
Another striker who may feel like he has a point to prove in this game is Dominic Calvert-Lewin, who returned to the England set-up but only featured for a total of 17 minutes across their four Nations League fixtures.
Calvert-Lewin’s recall came after a strong start to the Premier League season with Leeds, which made him one of only two players (alongside Everton’s Thierno Barry) to rank in the top 10 for aerial duels won (24), runs made ending in the box (33), and high-intensity pressures made in the opposition half (187).
He will hope to help Leeds remain one of just five teams who are yet to taste defeat in the Premier League this season, although they have only scored three times and went into the international break on the back of a 0-0 draw with Crystal Palace.
But Daniel Farke’s men are heading into a run of five Premier League fixtures coming against teams with an average Opta Power Rating of 93.6 – the fifth hardest upcoming stretch in the top flight.
Harry Wilson missed out against Palace with a thigh injury but could be fit to return after withdrawing from Wales duty, but Joe Rodon is not expected to play any part.
There are also doubts about Jean-Mattéo Bahoya‘s availability after he sustained an ankle injury while representing France Under-21s.
Arsenal vs Leeds Head-to-Head
Arsenal have won nine of their last 10 Premier League games against Leeds (D1), including each of the last seven by an aggregate score of 24-5.
They have often been prolific against Leeds, scoring at least four goals in nine different Premier League meetings with them, including both last term. The only fixtures in which a team has managed that feat on more occasions are Arsenal vs Everton (12) and Manchester United vs Newcastle (11).
Leeds have not won at Arsenal since a 3-2 victory in May 2003, a result that meant the Gunners could no longer defend the Premier League title and the Whites were effectively safe from relegation.
This meeting will not have quite as drastic ramifications, but it could prove to be a match that both teams highlight as a turning point later in the season.
Arsenal vs Leeds Prediction
Although Arsenal were beaten last time out, it is hard to see them slipping up again at home to Leeds.
Farke’s side may have been hard to play against this season, but they have just a 31% chance of leaving the Emirates with a result (draw: 17.3%; win: 13.7%).
Arsenal, meanwhile, are the overwhelming favourites after coming out on top in 68.9% of the Opta supercomputer‘s 10,000 pre-match simulations.
Arsenal vs Leeds Predicted Lineups
Arsenal: David Raya, Ben White, Ezri Konsa, Gabriel Magalhães, Riccardo Calafiori, Declan Rice, Myles Lewis-Skelly, Bukayo Saka, Martin Ødegaard, Eberechi Eze, Viktor Gyökeres.
Head coach: Mikel Arteta
Leeds United: James Trafford, Nico Elvedi, Tarik Muharemovic, James Justin, Jayden Bogle, Ethan Ampadu, Ao Tanaka, Gabriel Gudmundsson, Noah Okafor, Anton Stach, Dominic Calvert-Lewin.
Head coach: Daniel Farke
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world, and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Enjoy this? Add Opta Analyst as a preferred source by clicking here.
Subscribe to our football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You should also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.
