Arsenal vs PSV Prediction

We look ahead to Wednesday’s UEFA Champions League game at the Emirates Stadium with our Arsenal vs PSV prediction and preview. Mikel Arteta’s men should comfortably secure their place in the last eight of the competition for the second season running.

Arsenal vs PSV Stats: The Key Insights

• The Opta supercomputer strongly favours Arsenal to back up their first-leg efforts by also winning the reverse fixture, doing so in 63.7% of simulations.
• Only two Arsenal players have made more line-breaking passes in the UEFA Champions League this season than David Raya (48)
• This game will be Mikel Arteta’s 20th in the Champions League as Arsenal manager. 

Arsenal should comfortably clinch their place in the last eight of the UEFA Champions League when they host PSV at the Emirates Stadium on Wednesday.

The tie looks all but over after the Premier League side romped to a 7-1 first-leg win in Eindhoven last week, with six different players getting on the scoresheet as Mikel Arteta’s side showed the kind of attacking flair that has sometimes been lacking this season.

In that ruthless victory, Ethan Nwaneri became the youngest player in Champions League history to score in consecutive appearances (17 years, 348 days).

No player has ever scored three Champions League goals before their 18th birthday, while the current youngest player to score in three games in a row is Kylian Mbappé (18 years, 113 days).

It was Arteta’s 19th Champions League game as Arsenal boss, and on Wednesday he could become just the 10th manager to win 13 of their first 20 games in the competition. Seven of the nine to have achieved that feat previously have gone on to lift the trophy at some point in their career.

Arsenal have won their last five Champions League matches, scoring 20 goals and conceding three. They are looking to win six in a row for the first time since between March and November 2005 under Arsène Wenger.

Arsenal now return to home soil, where they have been strong in Europe this season, winning all four of their Champions League games at the Emirates without conceding a goal. The last English side to win five in a row at home without conceding in the competition were Thomas Tuchel’s Chelsea in 2021-22 (five).

On Wednesday, Arsenal could become just the second English team to score 10 goals across two legs in the Champions League, following in the footsteps of Manchester City against Schalke in the 2018-19 edition’s last 16 (10-2 win on aggregate).

Arsenal’s biggest aggregate victory in major European competition is 10-0 vs Standard Liège in the 1993-94 Cup Winners’ Cup, which is the last time any English team won by 10+ goals on aggregate in any major European competition. In the European Cup/Champions League, the last English team to do so was Leeds United vs Lyn in 1969-70 (16-0).

PSV would have to pull off something quite remarkable if they are to even trouble Arsenal’s lead from the first leg, and their form on the road in the Champions League won’t provide much confidence. They haven’t kept a clean sheet away from home in the Champions League since March 2016 (0-0 vs Atlético Madrid), conceding in each of their last 15 away games in the competition (33 conceded in total – 2.2 per game).

PSV’s 7-1 defeat in the first leg was their joint-biggest margin of defeat in a European match, equalling their 6-0 reverse to Saint-Étienne in the UEFA Cup in November 1979.

In the European Cup/Champions League, the last side to lose the first leg by six or more goals and win the second leg was Omonia Nicosia in 1979-80 vs Ajax (first leg 0-10, second leg 4-0), the second leg of which was played the same day as PSV suffered their 6-0 defeat to Saint-Étienne.

In terms of team news, with such a huge first-leg lead, Arteta may look to rest some of his key players. Gabriel Martinelli made his return from injury off the bench in the 1-1 Premier League draw away to Manchester United on Sunday, and fellow winger Bukayo Saka could be fit enough to feature within the next couple of weeks, though Wednesday will come too soon for him.

Arteta will remain without Gabriel Jesus, Kai Havertz and Takehiro Tomiyasu, all of whom are likely to be absent for the rest of the season.

For PSV, Sergiño Dest returned against Heerenveen on Saturday in the Eredivisie after over 10 months on the sidelines with an ACL injury and could play on Wednesday. However, Ricardo Pepi, Malik Tillman and Esmir Bajraktarević are all doubtful for the trip to north London.

Arsenal vs PSV Head-to-Head

Arsenal’s emphatic victory in the first leg against PSV was their biggest ever away win in the knockout stages of the Champions League.

PSV are winless in their last six away major European games in England (two draws, four defeats), with their last two visits ending in defeats to Arsenal. They’ve won just four of 20 away games in major European competitions in England, beating Leeds United twice (5-3 in 1995, 1-0 in 2002), Newcastle United (2-0 in 1997) and Tottenham (1-0 in 2008).

Arsenal played PSV twice in the Champions League group stage last season, winning 4-0 at home before drawing 1-1 away.

This will be the fifth time these two teams have met in north London in the Champions League, with Arsenal winning two and the other two meetings ending in draws.

Arsenal vs PSV Prediction

The Opta supercomputer is backing Arsenal to come out on top on the night at the Emirates Stadium on Wednesday, winning 63.7% of pre-match simulations.

A draw will see Arsenal through and occurs 19.2% of the time, while PSV save some face at least with a victory in 17.1% of simulations. Unsurprisingly, though, the supercomputer rates their overall chances of progression at 0%.

Arsenal are considered one of the favourites to win the Champions League, with only Liverpool (23.5%) and Barcelona (17.1%) holding a higher chance of lifting the trophy than the Gunners (16.8%).

Arsenal vs PSV Predicted Lineups

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off on Wednesday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

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