As gift voucher scandal plagues PM Ishiba, Japan’s ruling LDP faces reckoning

By The Straits Times | Created at 2025-03-29 12:00:46 | Updated at 2025-03-31 23:15:34 2 days ago

TOKYO – A sense of crisis is building within Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), as its status as the ruling party is again in jeopardy after a series of money-related scandals.

The LDP has had nearly uninterrupted rule since its founding in 1955, save for two spells outside of power from 1993 to 1994, and from 2009 to 2012.

But a drip-drip of revelations that Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is the latest in a series of LDP leaders to dole out gift vouchers to party lawmakers has ignited public fury and sent public support for his government crashing to new lows.

“The LDP is truly at a crossroads,” lawmaker Shinjiro Koizumi, who is from the LDP and has been touted as a future PM, said on March 20. “We are in a situation where we must somehow regain trust, or face abandonment by the people once again.”

But even if the LDP does not fall as the ruling party, experts believe that Mr Ishiba’s days as party chief and prime minister may be numbered.

Mr Ishiba has insisted that no laws were broken since the vouchers, worth 100,000 yen (S$895) each and given to 15 rookie lawmakers at a March 3 dinner, were paid for out of his own pocket. These gift certificates were almost immediately returned.

He was initially defiant, even berating a journalist at a televised news conference by demanding to know exactly which law, clause and article was broken. He has since apologised for the gifts, saying they were a misjudgment.

Yet the mea culpa has failed to quell speculation that the money might instead have come from a Cabinet Secretariat fund paid for by taxpayers.

Nor has it quashed talk among legal circles about potential illegality. This depends on how the Political Funds Control Act is interpreted: “Souvenirs” are allowed only for non-political social exchanges, while financial contributions for political activities are not. Questions are being asked over whether a dinner with the prime minister constitutes a non-political activity, and whether a voucher worth 100,000 yen could be described as a “souvenir”.

The contrition has also failed to quieten criticism.

Mr Masakazu Tokura, who chairs the powerful Keidanren business lobby, said that the practice is “out of step with common sense of the times”.

The Mainichi newspaper also weighed in, saying in an editorial on March 22: “The LDP should be aware of the growing public distrust in its money-oriented party culture.”

It added: “Such lavish gift-giving is out of touch with public sentiment just when people are struggling with soaring prices.”

Yet such a practice is seen within the LDP to be a longstanding custom, with Digital Minister Masaaki Taira saying on March 14 that it had already been in place when he was first elected in 2005. Fellow LDP lawmaker Toshitaka Ooka, first elected in 2012, likened it to a “company rewarding a hard-working employee”.

Mr Fumio Kishida, Mr Ishiba’s immediate predecessor, was said to have given vouchers to parliamentary vice-ministers, while the late Mr Shinzo Abe, who led the party in 2006 to 2007 and in 2012 to 2020, reportedly dished out vouchers to political newcomers.

LDP bigwigs are refusing opposition calls to open a probe into the practice.

What may be especially damaging for Mr Ishiba, experts told The Straits Times, is that he was long a gadfly operating on the fringes of the LDP, with his surprise election to the party’s leadership coming on the back of his promise to break the party’s association with opaque and money-linked politics.

Mr Fumio Kishida, who led the party from 2021 to 2024, had spent the final months of his tenure grappling with the fallout from a slush fund scandal, in which politicians had routinely kept donations off the books.

Political science professor Mikitaka Masuyama at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies said: “It is not about the sum of money, which may be considered small, but the fact that Ishiba was chosen as PM on expectations that he will dispel the problems of money and politics. This will greatly undermine him.”

Since Mr Ishiba now leads a minority government after the LDP was battered in an October 2024 snap election, the future of Japanese politics is becoming increasingly uncertain.

The vouchers scandal, on top of disagreements over policy, has even threatened to derail the passage of the Budget in time for the fiscal year starting April, although the opposition has since agreed to prioritise budget discussions to keep government functions running. The Diet aims to put the Budget to a vote on March 31.

With Mr Ishiba’s shaky government beset by a new scandal, it is an opportunity for the opposition to force a no-confidence motion, and therefore a snap election. But will the long-fractured opposition be able to band together to do so?

Will the LDP, alarmed by plunging support for Mr Ishiba’s Cabinet to below 30 per cent across numerous polls, pressure him into resigning barely months into his three-year tenure as party chief? This would, in turn, force another round of political circus, as the LDP again elects a new leader.

Or will the various stakeholders on either side of the aisle play the long game?

As it is, Mr Ishiba must again seek a public mandate when the fixed-term Upper House goes to the polls in July 2025, and a battering there with LDP losing its majority could trigger either of these moves by the opposition and the LDP.

As it stands now, however, political science professor Ko Maeda of the University of North Texas told ST that he believes the third scenario is the most plausible, given that there is no clear successor to Mr Ishiba within the LDP, with no one willing to step forward because the leadership role is as good as a poisoned chalice now, given the party’s weak position.

Neither does the opposition see it in its interests to force a snap election soon.

Mr Yoshihiko Noda, a former prime minister who now leads the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP), said on March 16: “We’re not going to seek a no-confidence motion. The LDP may replace its top leadership and go into the Upper House election with a fresh image, or call a snap election promising reforms. This is not how it will be done.”

The opposition can potentially inflict longer-term damage by demanding accountability in Parliament, which would keep the scandal in the news for months.

Also, not forcing an immediate resignation and having Mr Ishiba continue to be in charge could work in the opposition’s favour, given his low popularity among the public.

The National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies’ Prof Masuyama saw Mr Ishiba staying until the Upper House election, the outcome of which will ultimately determine his fate.

Despite waning public support for Mr Ishiba’s government, a snap election now would still carry risks for the opposition. Polls show that the LDP is still more popular than any opposition party, likely because the volatile years under the now defunct Democratic Party of Japan remain fresh in the minds of many voters.

The different opposition parties also have different calculations.

The ascendant Democratic Party for the People (DPFP), which is gaining voter support because of its social media savvy and banner policy proposal to raise the income tax threshold, may want elections soon, but not the CDP.

“The DPFP may welcome a snap election because it is enjoying high popularity. But because of that, the CDP does not want any election soon,” Prof Maeda said. “As always, divisions among opposition parties are greatly helping the LDP.”

Prof Masuyama added that any inability by the opposition to coordinate and agree on unified candidates in single-seat constituencies will boost the LDP’s chances of winning the Upper House election.

Mr Ishiba’s longevity in the top job, experts said, would ultimately depend on whether he can somehow reverse the steep decline in his personal support.

Short of any divine intervention or political ingenuity, Prof Maeda was not hopeful of any turnaround.

He said, when asked what he would tell Mr Ishiba if he were in the position to advise the Prime Minister: “Seriously, if I were an adviser to Ishiba, I would start looking for a new job. I just cannot imagine a scenario of his approval rating recovering.”