By Opta Analyst | Created at 2026-09-18 12:11:54 | Updated at 2026-09-18 21:50:16
10 hours ago
We look ahead to Sunday’s La Liga game at the Metropolitano with our Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid prediction and preview. Who will claim bragging rights in the season’s first derby?
Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid: The Key Stats
- Real Madrid are the favourites to come out on top in the Madrid derby, winning 46.6% of the Opta supercomputer’s 10,000 pre-match simulations.
- Atlético Madrid lost their most recent La Liga match against Madrid, snapping a six-game unbeaten streak against them.
- Diego Simeone has lost all three of his previous La Liga matches against José Mourinho.
Just two points separate Atlético Madrid and Real Madrid after six matches in La Liga this season, and both teams will be determined to get one over their rivals before the international break.
José Mourinho has enjoyed a largely successful return to Madrid so far, losing just one of his league matches – a shock 1-0 defeat to Real Betis – and winning the other five.
Their last-gasp 3-2 win over Elche last time out sent them second, three points behind Barcelona at the top of the table, and another victory over Atlético would ensure they go into the break in a strong position.
Atlético are only two points behind their city rivals, so a win would see them leapfrog Madrid, and they are high on confidence after back-to-back wins over Real Sociedad and Osasuna without conceding.
But beating Madrid won’t come easy to Diego Simeone; he has lost all three of his La Liga meetings with Mourinho.
The only manager against whom he has managed more matches in the competition with a 100% loss rate (five matches, five defeats) is Xavi Hernández.
And Madrid have looked particularly strong this season – only Barcelona (28) have scored more than them, while they have the joint-best defensive record (one of nine teams to only concede six times).
Madrid have won more points (four) than any other La Liga team from goals scored in the 85th minute or onwards this season.
Carlos Espí is responsible for two of those, including the stoppage-time winner against Elche; both of his goals have come in the 90th minute or later.
And they of course have Kylian Mbappé leading the line – he already tops Madrid’s scoring charts with seven goals this term.
The Frenchman will reach 500 goal involvements at club level (currently 499 – 377 goals, 122 assists) if he scores or assists in this match, and he never needs much of an invitation to fire on goal.
After registering just two goals or assists in his first nine La Liga games against Atlético (two assists), Vinícius Júnior has since been directly involved in four goals in his last four league encounters against them (two goals, two assists).
Madrid have lost three of their last five away La Liga games against Atlético (W1 D1), though, after suffering just one defeat in their previous 20 visits to the Rojiblancos in the competition (W12 D7).
And they have picked up points in eight of their last nine away derbies (W4 D4 L1), but Atlético are on their longest-ever home winning streak in derbies against teams from Madrid (W6).
Simeone’s side responded well to consecutive losses to Athletic Club and Liverpool, scoring seven goals with no reply in the two matches since.
A worry for Simeone will be that they are the only team to have conceded 100% of their goals (6/6) in the second half of their La Liga matches this season.
But given the strength of their attack, this has the opportunity to be a very open encounter if Atlético choose to take the risk.
Jonathan David has scored two goals in his first two La Liga games for Atlético, and a Madrid derby goal would cap a brilliant start for him.
He could become the first player to score in his first three appearances in the competition for the Rojiblancos in the 21st century.
Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid Head-to-Head
Atlético lost their last La Liga match against Madrid 3-2 in March, ending a six-game unbeaten streak (W2 D4) against them.
Atleti have only suffered two or more consecutive defeats against Los Blancos in the competition under Simeone on two occasions: three defeats in 2013 and two defeats in 2020.
Madrid have won their last two games against Atlético in all competitions; they’ve not recorded three or more consecutive victories against them since 2013, when they had 10 consecutive wins (two under Manuel Pellegrini and eight under Mourinho).
Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid Prediction
Given Madrid’s recent record against Atlético, they are expected to triumph on Sunday, coming out on top in 46.6% of the supercomputer’s simulations.
The Rojiblancos have a 28.3% chance of claiming three points against their city rivals, with a further 25.1% chance of splitting the points in a draw.
Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid Predicted Lineups
Atlético Madrid: Jan Oblak, Marcos Llorente, Cristian Romero, Robin Le Normand, Alejandro Grimaldo, Lee Kang-in, Morten Hjulmand, Koke, Ademola Lookman, Jonathan David, Álex Baena.
Head coach: Diego Simeone
Real Madrid: Thibaut Courtois, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Ibrahima Konaté, Dean Huijsen, Marc Cucurella, Federico Valverde, Aurélien Tchouaméni, Yan Diomande, Arda Güler, Vinícius, Júnior, Kylian Mbappé.
Head coach: José Mourinho
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 16,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world, and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Enjoy this? Add Opta Analyst as a preferred source by clicking here.
Subscribe to our football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You should also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.
