By Opta Analyst | Created at 2026-06-12 13:16:42 | Updated at 2026-06-14 03:21:30
1 day ago
We look ahead to Sunday’s FIFA World Cup Group D clash at BC Place, Vancouver, with our Australia vs Türkiye prediction and preview. Can the 2002 semi-finalists make a winning return?
Australia vs Türkiye: The Key Insights
- Türkiye have won all four of their World Cup matches against teams from the AFC confederation, and are the Opta supercomputer’s favourites for victory here (55.3%).
- Australia have lost more matches than any other nation across the last five World Cups (ten of 17).
- The Socceroos have also lost their opening game in five of their six World Cup appearances.
Türkiye look to mark their return to the World Cup finals with victory over Australia in this Group D clash in Vancouver.
Despite qualifying for six of the last eight European Championship tournaments, it is just under a quarter of a century since the Türkiye last graced the global stage.
That was back in 2002 when the likes of Ümit Davala, Hasan Şaş and İlhan Mansız lit up the tournament in Japan and Korea, helping their nation reach the semi-finals.
Şenol Günes’ side eventually secured a bronze medal, with Hakan Şükür’s goal just 11 seconds into the third-place play-off victory over South Korea still the fastest in World Cup history.
Vincenzo Montella was part of the Italy squad beaten by the co-hosts in the round of 16. Fast forward 24 years and the former striker is only the second coach – after Günes – to lead Türkiye at both the European Championship and World Cup.
After finishing second behind European champions Spain in their qualifying group, Montella’s side came through the play-offs via a pair of 1-0 victories over Romania and Kosovo to seal only their third appearance at the finals.
Türkiye’s charge was mainly led by Hakan Çalhanoglu and Arda Güler who, with four assists each, set up a combined 42% of their nation’s goals during the qualifying campaign (eight of 19).
Kenan Yildiz also impressed with a joint-leading three goals, though the Juventus winger is in a race to be fit after suffering a calf injury during the closing stages of the Serie A season.
Though they do not boast a great deal of World Cup experience, Türkiye certainly have pedigree. West Germany and Brazil are the only teams to beat them at the finals, with both going on to win the respective tournaments – in 1954 and 2002.
Similarly, Australia have faced the eventual winners in four of their six previous appearances – West Germany in 1974, Italy in 2006, France in 2018 and, most recently, Argentina in 2022 – losing on each occasion.
The Socceroos did match their best performance at the finals last time out by reaching the round of 16, while also recording multiple victories in a single edition for the first time (two).
Head coach Tony Popovic was part of the other Australia squad that reached the second round under Guus Hiddink in 2006 – finishing second in their group behind Brazil, before succumbing to a late Francesco Totti penalty against Italy.
The Socceroos’ 10 defeats in 17 World Cup games since the start of that year’s tournament are the most by any nation and, since 2014, long-standing number one Mathew Ryan has conceded more times than any goalkeeper at the finals (20).
However, Australia will not roll over so easily this time around with Popovic having certainly steadied the ship since replacing Graham Arnold, who departed after a poor start to the third round of AFC qualifying.
The former defender oversaw an eight-match unbeaten run in Group C to secure automatic qualification for the first time since 2014. Only Japan (54) and South Korea (40) scored more goals than Australia in the AFC section (38), though just 16 of those came during the third round – with five alone in their rout of Indonesia.
That is something Popovic will hope to have addressed by the time his players take to the field in Vancouver.
One player he may turn to for inspiration is veteran Mathew Leckie, a starter in each of Australia’s last 10 World Cup matches. The 35-year-old Melbourne City forward could become only the third player to score for the Socceroos at two different finals, after Tim Cahill (2006, 2010 and 2014) and Mile Jedinak (2014 and 2018).
Set-pieces are likely to play a key role in this contest. Only Czechia (seven) scored more goals from corners than Türkiye (five) during UEFA qualifying, while Australia’s eight goals from corners and indirect free-kicks were only bettered by Qatar (11) in the AFC section.
Australia vs Türkiye Head-to-Head
This will only be the third ever meeting between the nations, with Türkiye prevailing in the previous two.
Both came back in May 2004 as the Crescent-Stars won 3-1 in Sydney, before a narrow 1-0 victory in Melbourne three days later.
Türkiye have won each of their four previous World Cup matches against teams from the AFC confederation, scoring 14 goals and conceding just twice. That includes a 7-0 rout of South Korea, which gave them their first ever victory at the finals in 1954.
The same opposition scored both goals against them during their 3-2 win in the third-place play-off 48 years later.
Australia vs Türkiye Prediction
The Opta supercomputer favours a Türkiye victory, with Montella’s side having won 55.3% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations.
Australia’s chances of winning are rated at 20.5%, with a draw at 24.1%.
However, neither side boasts a promising record when it comes to hitting the ground running at the finals.
Türkiye have lost both their previous opening World Cup matches, going down 4-1 to West Germany in 1954, and 2-1 to Brazil in 2002.
Meanwhile, Australia have lost their first game in five of their six previous appearances, with the exception being a 3-1 victory over Croatia in 2006.
Australia vs Türkiye Squads
Australia: Mathew Ryan, Paul Izzo, Patrick Beach, Milos Degenek, Alessandro Circati, Jacob Italiano, Jordan Bos, Jason Geria, Kai Trewin, Aziz Behich, Harry Souttar, Cameron Burgess, Lucas Herrington, Connor Metcalfe, Ajdin Hrustic, Awer Mabil, Aiden O’Neill, Cameron Devlin, Cristian Volpato, Jackson Irvine, Paul Okon-Engstler, Mathew Leckie, Mohamed Touré, Nestory Irankunda, Nishan Velupillay, Tete Yengi.
Türkiye: Mert Günok, Altay Bayindir, Ugurcan Çakir, Zeki Çelik, Merih Demiral, Çaglar Söyüncü, Eren Elmali, Abdülkerim Bardakci, Ozan Kabak, Mert Müldür, Ferdi Kadioglu, Kaan Ayhan, Samet Akaydin, Salih Özcan, Orkun Kökçü, Arda Güler, Hakan Çalhanoglu, Ismail Yüksek, Irfan Can Kahveci, Can Uzun, Kerem Aktürkoglu, Deniz Gül, Kenan Yildiz, Yunus Akgün, Baris Alper Yilmaz, Oguz Aydin.
Australia vs Türkiye Predicted Lineups
Enjoy this? Add Opta Analyst as a preferred source by clicking here.
Subscribe to our football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You should also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.
