Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash: Is Russia responsible?

Two days after an Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL) plane crashed in Aktau, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan seems to be increasing the pressure on Russia. Although an investigation is still underway in Kazakhstan, preliminary results have been leaked to the press. As an accidental Russian air defense missile strike becomes the leading theory behind the crash, more and more Azerbaijani officials are calling on Russia to admit responsibility.

What happened on Christmas morning?

The Azerbaijan Airlines flight J2-8243 crashed on Wednesday in a field near Aktau in western Kazakhstan. Of the 67 passengers onboard, 38 died, and 29 were hospitalized, some with severe injuries.

The plane wasn't supposed to land in Aktau. The aircraft had taken off from Baku on Wednesday morning and was about to land in Grozny, Russia, an area that has recently been heavily targeted by Ukrainian drones, when something happened to it that some survivors later described as a collision with a bird.

Videos of the emergency landing near Aktau show the plane gaining altitude, then sharply descending before crashing to the ground and catching fire. Other videos showed the wrecked aircraft lying in the field.

Apart from the damage caused by the crash, the videos show the fuselage riddled with small holes. Some experts, including those DW spoke to, say these holes may be attributed to a strike by Russia's anti-aircraft systems.

Investigation underway

Kazakhstan has launched an investigation into the causes of the incident. An investigative commission established by the country's prime minister includes, among others, a deputy prime minister and the leadership of several ministries. The commission is said to be collaborating with Azerbaijan.

No government official has announced any results of the investigation yet. The Senate speaker, Maulen Ashimbayev, said Thursday they didn't know what had caused the tragedy. He also called the theory of a Russian anti-aircraft system strike speculation. "Spreading such allegations is not right and unethical," Ashimbayev commented.

This reaction corresponds with Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov's words. He refused to comment on the allegations about the Russian air defense system's strike. Instead, he called on the parties to wait until the investigation in Kazakhstan is completed.

Reactions in Baku

In Baku, the authorities seem less patient. Sources in the Azerbaijani government have leaked the preliminary results of the investigation to the press. According to Euronews and Reuters that cite their sources, the plane might have mistakenly been struck by the Russian Pantsir-S air defense missile-gun system, and the aircraft's communication "was paralyzed" by electronic warfare systems as it approached Grozny.

"No one claims that it was done on purpose. However, taking into account the established facts, Baku expects the Russian side to confess to the shooting down of the Azerbaijani aircraft," Reuters cited a source. 

In another article published by the local news website Day.Az on Friday, the sources in the President's office of Azerbaijan abruptly refused to accept any help offered by the Chechen authorities.

"We are providing and will continue to provide the necessary assistance to our citizens. Azerbaijan demands recognition of the fact, an apology, and the payment of appropriate compensations," a source said.

AZAL suspends flights to some Russian regions

Meanwhile, Azerbaijan Airlines has suspended several flights from Baku to seven cities in Russia starting December 28. These are areas affected by Ukrainian drone attacks and where Russian air defense systems are active.

In an official statement, the airline said the plane that crashed on Wednesday experienced "external physical and technical interference".

After growing signs of irritation on the Azerbaijani side went public, Russian aviation authorities released more details about the circumstances leading up to the plane crash.

The head of Russia's federal air transport agency, Dmitry Yadrov said Friday that the so-called Carpet plan had been implemented before the AZAL plane crash due to a Ukrainian drone attack.

It means that the airport in Grozny was closed for departures and arrivals and all aircraft were required to leave the area.

According to Yadrov, the pilots unsuccessfully attempted to land in Grozny twice. He mentioned that the area was covered in dense fog. The crew then allegedly refused to consider alternative landing options in Russia and flew to Aktau, but the plane crashed in the coastal area.

Pro-Kremlin bloggers admit a Russian strike

While Russian state-run media appear keen to avoid mentioning the possibility of a Russian missile hitting the plane, pro-Kremlin military bloggers on Telegram seem to have no doubts about what happened.

The most popular military Telegram channels such as Rybar, Yuri Podolyaka, and Alex Parker write that the Russian anti-aircraft system strike seems to be the most likely cause of the crash.

"But I am sure that the Chechens will manage to avoid responsibility, and no one will be punished," a post on the Alex Parker channel reads.

Edited by: Rob Mudge