By Opta Analyst | Created at 2024-10-29 21:22:15 | Updated at 2024-11-06 00:02:30
1 week ago
Real Madrid endured an infuriating evening in Saturday’s Clásico defeat to Barcelona, who have become a statistical anomaly under Hansi Flick.
Barcelona won the first Clásico of the 2024-25 season 4-0 at the Santiago Bernabéu on Saturday, producing a statement performance against their biggest rivals, Real Madrid.
It was their joint-biggest La Liga win at the home of Los Blancos this century; Lamine Yamal became the youngest goalscorer in Clásico history aged 17 years and 105 days old; Hansi Flick became the first men’s manager to win their debut Clásico by four or more goals (any competition) since Jorge Valdano in 1995; and defeat prevented Madrid equalling the all-time La Liga record for games unbeaten, as set by Barcelona in 2018 (43 matches).
And despite all of this, it still felt like the most notable aspect of Saturday’s thriller was the arduous shifts put in by the assistant referees. Honestly, it seems a bit daft to say the most interesting thing about a genuinely entertaining iteration of arguably the biggest rivalry in club football was the frequency of offside decisions, but it really wouldn’t be much of an exaggeration.
Granted, such declarations aren’t going to help us at Opta Analyst beat the allegations of being insufferable stats nerds who watch football through spreadsheets, but we’d like to think anyone who saw Saturday’s game also noticed how the referee’s assistants raised their arms more than the classroom know-it-all.
No one, on the pitch or otherwise, will have noticed more than Kylian Mbappé. The Frenchman was caught offside eight times in the match, which is the most by any player in a single match across the top five European leagues since Sergio Pellissier (10 for Chievo vs Roma) in December 2010.
Six of those occurred in the first half, with Mbappé accounting for 75% of the offsides (6/8) against Madrid before the break. The eight offsides given against Carlo Ancelotti’s men was the club’s joint most on record (since 2003-04) in the first half of a La Liga match.
Over the full game, Madrid’s 12 offsides was their most in a league game since March 2013 (also 12 vs Celta Vigo) and the most by either them or Barcelona in a Clásico going as far back as at least 2003-04.
It was all rather bizarre to see unfold, especially – as noted – before half-time. Virtually every meaningful Madrid attack in the first half was either halted prematurely or rendered irrelevant soon after by the flag.
This meant that, despite Madrid actually looking quite dangerous in attack before half-time, they technically reached the break having managed just a single shot and none on target. At the time, this felt like it didn’t quite do Ancelotti’s side justice, because on another day had Madrid timed their runs slightly better (or passed a fraction earlier), they’d have had at least a one-goal lead. It’s also worth noting that the Frenchman inexplicably shot wide with only the goalkeeper to beat before that too was consigned to footballing purgatory by the flag.
To some watching on, all of this might’ve seemed completely ridiculous or surprising – in a sense (we’ll come to that) it was, yet this is also just how Hansi Flick has been setting Barcelona up this season.
Now, although it’s worth highlighting that Barcelona’s 12 offsides provoked in this game was considerably higher than their 7.0 per game this season, that average is still very, very high.
And this is where the numbers do get pretty ridiculous: Barcelona’s opponents have now been caught offside 77 times this season…
Okay, you’re still waiting for kicker…
Well, here it comes: the teams with the second and third most offsides provoked in the top five European leagues this term have only recorded 70 between them. Osasuna and Brighton rank just behind Barcelona in the offsides provoked stakes, but in truth, the Blaugrana are lightyears ahead.
Jonathan Manuel / Data AnalystThere are clubs in the top leagues who haven’t even provoked 10 offsides, with Toulouse and Inter recording the fewest in 2024-25 with just three apiece.
To put this into some historical context, we delved into the Opta numbers as far back as we have the data (since 2006-07) for all of the top five European leagues and found only one instance of a team averaging more offsides provoked per game in a single season – Atalanta (7.03) in 2008-09.
But, ahead of 2024-25, that Atalanta entry was one of only two instances of a team managing more than 5.9 offsides provoked per game, with Juventus (6.3) doing so in 2007-08.
What makes this Barcelona side even more interesting then is the fact they’re playing this way, recording these numbers in the era of VAR, as highlighted last week by Spanish newspaper El País.
Video Assistant Referee technology has contributed to a massive reduction in offside decisions. In the 2006-07 season, for example, there were 5.9 offside calls per match across the top five leagues – in 2023-24, there were 3.6 on average. In other words, that’s a 39% reduction.
With that in mind, Barcelona’s 7.0 offsides provoked per game this term looks like even more of an anomaly – bordering on comical – when focused on in the context of the VAR era. VAR was first introduced for the 2017-18 Bundesliga and Serie A seasons; it arrived in La Liga and Ligue 1 the following campaign and in the Premier League the year after that.
So, looking just at offsides provoked per game since the 2017-18 season, Barcelona stick out like a sore thumb.
Jonathan Manuel / Data AnalystThe previous high in this time for offsides provoked per game was Aston Villa (4.4) last season, while Barcelona themselves were only recording 3.1 each game in 2023-24. That in itself highlights a massive shift just since the summer.
“It’s incredible to have the balls to have such a high defensive line,” midfielder Marc Casadó said at full-time. “We’ve been doing it all season. The defensive work of this team is spectacular. It’s incredible and at the moment it’s working for us.”
Of course, that’s the key, isn’t it? At the moment it’s serving Barcelona very well, but if that stops – perhaps influenced by a few injuries – then they could be exploited.
But Flick insists it’s not an approach to be worried about.
“It seems dangerous and risky, but it isn’t,” he said in his post-match press conference. “It worked. It’s the key, defending in line. We worked very hard on it. It’s important for me to defend with the ball. We couldn’t leave them any space.”
The evidence suggests Barcelona are very good at what they’re doing because their numbers are simply off the charts. Furthermore, they know that a degree of the risk is mitigated these days by the presence of VAR, which will find in their favour if any marginally incorrect calls lead to a goal.
If they continue to be as sharp as they were on Saturday, then VAR offers an additional layer of protection. Maintaining such a level might not be a guarantee, but their record under Flick thus far offers real peace of mind.
Enjoy this? Subscribe to our football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You should also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.
