Bayern Munich vs PSG Prediction

We look ahead to Tuesday’s Champions League game at the Allianz Arena with our Bayern Munich vs PSG prediction and preview. Both European giants are in desperate need of a win.

Bayern Munich vs PSG Stats: The Key Insights

• Bayern Munich are the favourites to win this with the Opta supercomputer, the Bundesliga giants victorious in 43.2% of simulations.
• These two European giants sit in 17th and 25th place in the league phase respectively at the halfway point.
• Bayern have won each of their last three games against Paris Saint-Germain in the UEFA Champions League, played between 2021 and 2023.

When it was announced that UEFA were re-jigging the group stage of the Champions League into a single league phase, the assumption was teams like Bayern Munich and Paris Saint-Germain would ensconce themselves in the top eight and stay there.

That has not been the case as we approach Matchday 5 of 8, with Bayern in 17th place and PSG flailing down in 25th, the Ligue 1 champions on course for elimination if they can’t climb the table.

There is therefore work to be done by both European giants, starting with them meeting each other at the Allianz Arena on Tuesday.

Bayern have won two and lost two of their four games. They began with a thumping 9-2 win over Dinamo Zagreb but followed that up with a 1-0 loss at Aston Villa and a heavy 4-1 defeat at Barcelona. They did secure a hard-fought 1-0 victory over Benfica last time out, though.

Bayern do rank first in the Champions League this season for fewest opposition passes allowed per defensive action (PPDA), which may at least be some comfort to Vincent Kompany as he looks to implement a specific way of playing. On average, Bayern have allowed just 7.4 passes by their opponent before attempting to intervene with a defensive action.

However, experienced goalkeeper Manuel Neuer has only saved one of the six shots on target he’s faced in the Champions League this season (17%). Indeed, based on the quality of shots on target faced using expected goals, the Bayern goalkeeper has conceded two more goals than expected (five from 2.9 xG on target). If Neuer can rediscover anything like the levels he has largely been at throughout his career, Kompany’s side should get back on track.

Harry Kane will be the main dangerman as always, though. He added another record to his name on Friday as his hat-trick against Augsburg took him to 50 Bundesliga goals in just 43 games, the fewest games any player has reached a half-century of goals in the competition.

As for the visitors, it has been a poor European campaign to this point for the French champions. They started with an unconvincing late home win against Girona on MD 1, but followed that up with just one point from three games against Arsenal, PSV and Atlético Madrid.

In fairness to PSG, we judged them to have had the toughest league phase opponents when the draw was made, but they still need points on the board, and fast.

Their loss to Atlético last time out was particularly frustrating. PSG had 22 shots to their opponents’ four and saw 71.3% of the ball at the Parc des Princes. In fact, they have been on level terms in the Champions League for 276 minutes this season and in that time have attempted 56 more shots than their opponents (70 for, 14 against). Despite that, they’ve conceded more goals (3) than they’ve scored (2) in those minutes.

PSG will be looking to Achraf Hakimi for chance creation. The Morocco international has created more chances (37) and chances from open play (36) than any other player in the Champions League since the start of last season, but has just one assist (Vitinha vs Barcelona in April).

Bayern Munich vs PSG Head-to-Head

Bayern Munich and PSG have met on 13 previous occasions in the Champions League, with this being the most-played fixture between German and French sides in the competition.

Bayern have won each of their last three games against the Parisians in the Champions League, played between 2021 and 2023. The only team to have ever won more consecutive matches against PSG in European competition is Juventus, who beat them in six in a row between 1989 and 1997.

They last met in the last 16 of the 2022-23 Champions League, with Bayern winning the first leg 1-0 in Paris and the second leg 2-0 in Munich.

PSG have failed to score in each of their last three games against Bayern, with this their longest run of games without a goal against an opponent in European competition.

Bayern Munich vs PSG Prediction

Bayern Munich are the favourites to win this clash, doing so in 43.2% of the Opta supercomputer’s 10,000 simulations.

PSG should not be counted out, though. Luis Enrique’s men are victorious in 30.1% of sims, while the remaining 26.7% see both settle for a point that doesn’t really help either.

Bayern Munich vs PSG Predicted Lineups

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off on Tuesday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

Bayern Munich vs PSG UCL Squads

Bayern Munich: Manuel Neuer, Daniel Peretz, Sven Ulreich, Dayot Upamecano, Kim Min-jae, Eric Dier, Hiroki Ito, Raphaël Guerreiro, Sacha Boey, Josip Stanišić, Leon Goretzka, Joshua Kimmich, Leroy Sané, João Palhinha, Michael Olise, Alphonso Davies, Konrad Laimer, Javier Fernández, Jamal Musiala, Serge Gnabry, Harry Kane, Kingsley Coman, Thomas Müller, Nestory Irankunda, Mathys Tel.

Head Coach: Vincent Kompany

PSG: Gianluigi Donnarumma, Matvey Safonov, Arnau Tenas, Achraf Hakimi, Presnel Kimpembe, Marquinhos, Lucas Hernández, Nuno Mendes, Lucas Beraldo, Milan Skriniar, Yoram Zague, Willian Pacho, Fabián Ruiz, Désiré Doué, Vitinha, Lee Kang-in, Senny Mayulu, Warren Zaïre-Emery, João Neves, Gonçalo Ramos, Ousmane Dembélé, Marcos Asensio, Randal Kolo Muani, Bradley Barcola, Ibrahim Mbaye.

Head Coach: Luis Enrique

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