Biggest surprises and underperformers of the season so far

The 2024-25 NBA season is just a few weeks old, and teams are already proving that preseason projections are just that.

The Philadelphia 76ers and Milwaukee Bucks have six wins as both currently sit outside the Eastern Conference play-in. Meanwhile, the Brooklyn Nets and Detroit Pistons find themselves in the middle of the wide-open standings and the Cleveland Cavaliers are off to the hottest start in the NBA since the 2015-26 Golden State Warriors.

The wins the East is lacking can be found out West as 10 Western Conference teams are at .500 or better. The Phoenix Suns, Oklahoma City Thunder and Warriors are all off to notable starts, but injuries threaten to stall some early-season momentum. Suns star Kevin Durant picked up a calf strain that will sideline him for multiple weeks, while Thunder big man Chet Holmgren suffered a pelvic fracture that will keep him out eight to 10 weeks at minimum.

With injuries mounting and preseason storylines thrown out, let's check in on which teams have underperformed and overperformed so far. Our experts break down the biggest questions regarding slow starts and surprising records, and also examine the reality of teams climbing out of early holes.

Most surprising team exceeding expectations?

Tim MacMahon: We knew the Cavaliers were pretty good. But who could have predicted Cleveland claiming the longest undefeated streak to start a season since the 73-win Warriors? C'mon. The Cavs are coming off an Eastern Conference semifinals appearance, but new coach Kenny Atkinson inherited a roster with real questions about whether its best players actually complemented one another. The "core four" has been good together; Cleveland had a plus-7.9 net rating entering Monday night with Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen on the floor together. They're dominating as duos, as Atkinson has linked Mitchell with Mobley and Garland with Allen in his rotation. The Mitchell-Mobley tandem has a plus-13.9 net rating, and Garland-Allen isn't too far behind (plus-8.4). It's early in the season, but last week's blowout win over the Warriors served notice that the Cavs should be taken seriously as contenders.

Tim Bontemps: I thought the Golden State Warriors were going to be good this season, but I did not expect them to be tied for the best record in the West 11 games in while boasting a top-three defense in the league. After beating the Celtics on Nov. 6, Stephen Curry said multiple times how much he's enjoying this group because of the return of the organization's "strength in numbers" philosophy -- a callback to Steve Kerr's first season in 2014-15, which ended in a title. A decade later, as long as Curry is on the court and the players around him are defending like this, the Warriors are a real threat.

Kevin Pelton: Their early-season performance is not likely to last or matter as much as the other teams on the list, but let's give some love to the Brooklyn Nets. Left for the Cooper Flagg sweepstakes after trading Mikal Bridges to the New York Knicks -- and, notably, reacquiring the rights to their 2025 and 2026 first-round picks -- the Nets have been as high as fourth in the East during a 4-6 start. Even Brooklyn's losses have been impressive, including overtime games against the past two champions (Denver Nuggets and Boston Celtics) and a five-point loss in Cleveland. For the most part, the Nets have been driven by veterans, including Dennis Schroder, who is averaging 19.3 points on 46.2% 3-point shooting. That start could put Brooklyn in a better position to deal those contributors to contenders before the trade deadline, keeping the Nets on track for the lottery talent they need long term.

Dave McMenamin: After losing Paul George in free agency, dealing with Kawhi Leonard's latest right knee injury and dropping their first four home games at the brand new Intuit Dome, coach Tyronn Lue and the LA Clippers won four straight games to climb in to the play-in picture. Guard Norman Powell has been leading the way, averaging a career-best 24.9 points on 50.5/49.5/83.3 shooting splits -- nearly double his 13.9 scoring average a season ago. James Harden has struggled with his efficiency -- shooting just 36.2%, including 31.3% from 3 -- but is still nearly averaging a triple-double with 20.7 points, 8.8 assists and 8.2 rebounds per game. And the addition of Derrick Jones Jr. from Dallas has helped the Clips rank 11th in defense, allowing only 108.6 points per 100 possessions.

Jamal Collier: I agree with MacMahon that the Cavs have arrived to stake their claim as contenders at the top of the East, but I'm most surprised by the Pistons starting the season 5-8. It took them until Jan. 15 to get their fourth win last season. They're not world-beaters by any means, but they also appear to finally not be pushovers . And considering the state of the Eastern Conference, Detroit has reason to believe it can make a push for, at least, a spot in the play-in tournament, especially with Cade Cunningham off to such a strong start, leading the team in points (23.8 per game), averaging a career-high 8.5 assists and shooting 45.6%.

Most surprising underperformer?

MacMahon: It's unbelievable the Bucks are this bad. Khris Middleton's absence doesn't excuse a team with championship aspirations having only four wins 12 games into the season. It's especially concerning given Giannis Antetokounmpo (33.3 points, 12.1 rebounds, 5.5 assists per game) is putting up numbers near his career best. And the noise around the Bucks will only get louder if the losses continue stacking up. One of the most common discussions around the league is speculating on how long it will take before Antetokounmpo seeks a trade. Milwaukee's front office has twice hushed that talk over the years, making blockbuster trades that persuaded Antetokounmpo to sign extensions, but the Damian Lillard deal has yet to pay dividends. And it's hard to see how the Bucks can make significant roster upgrades after they've pushed so many chips in to build this flawed roster.

Bontemps: If you had said the Bucks were going to be among the worst teams in the NBA across the opening 12 games of the season, the case would be an easy one: injuries to Antetokounmpo, Lillard or Brook Lopez. Instead, the three of them have combined to miss only three games, and the Bucks are still among the cellar dwellers in the East, which is cause for alarm. The fate of this team will be determined over the next few weeks, during which they'll play a nine-game stretch that features six home games and seven games against teams that didn't make the playoffs last season. If Milwaukee dominates that stretch and gets near .500, then the noise will quiet. If the Bucks cannot pull themselves even slightly out of this hole, then you're looking at a team devoid of trade assets to improve.

Pelton: Clearly it's Milwaukee but, in the non-Bucks division, I'm surprised Philadelphia was so uncompetitive before Joel Embiid's return to the lineup. Yes, the 76ers players who have been healthy are primarily on the team to complement Embiid, Paul George and Tyrese Maxey, and Philly has put two of those three players on the court together only three times all season. But the Sixers weren't at a talent disadvantage against, say, the Toronto Raptors without both RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley, whom they lost to 115-107 during the first week of the season. Given Embiid isn't expected to play both ends of back-to-back sets the rest of the regular season, Philadelphia might rue not being able to pull out more early games if it means another path to the playoffs through the play-in.

McMenamin: The team that has been mostly healthy thus far, yet still has looked the furthest from the potential juggernaut it was hyped to be, is the Knicks. Coming off the franchise's first 50-win season in more than a decade and adding former All-Defensive first-team member Mikal Bridges and four-time All-Star Karl-Anthony Towns in the offseason, Knicks fans were wondering if 2024-25 would finally be their year. The East has been underwhelming as a whole, so New York's 5-6 start is still good enough for fourth in the conference. But the Knicks are already seven games behind No. 1 Cleveland and four games back from the defending champion Boston Celtics. Their stacked starting lineup is keeping them afloat -- it's responsible for the NBA's fourth-rated offense -- but their lack of depth and bottom-half defense are already troubling signs for their title hopes.

Collier: We've outlined what a disaster this start has been for Milwaukee so far, so I'll avoid piling on. But the Sixers being just as bad is such a major letdown for a team that "won" the offseason. For all the accolades Embiid has picked up through the years, we've still yet to see him have a dominant playoff run. It finally seemed like all the right pieces were in place for a successful season: the right co-stars, some strong supporting role players and an innovative coach. The Sixers could still end up making a strong playoff run and, as the next question outlines, there's reason for optimism, but the way Philadelphia has come out of the gates has been disappointing.

Which injured team is most likely to make the playoffs?

MacMahon: The 76ers have the luxury of playing in the East, which likely won't require a winning record to make the playoffs. So, for all that has gone wrong medically in Philadelphia to start the season, the Sixers should still land somewhere in the East's top six by the end of the regular season. But a lot will have to break right for Philadelphia to emerge as a real threat to get to Embiid's first East finals. The Sixers have been clear about their plan to proceed with caution regarding the workload on their two injury-prone veteran stars, George and Embiid, both of whom are expected to rest half of back-to-backs even when healthy. How will that work? Do they sit together or stagger their rest? The Sixers have put themselves in a position where they can't afford to punt any games, but chemistry can't just be microwaved between two stars who played their first game together Tuesday. Yes, Philly should still make the playoffs, but it wouldn't be surprising if the Sixers are done by May.

Bontemps: Philadelphia has to be the answer here. It's a big if, but if Embiid, George and Maxey can spend some consistent time on the court together, this team is going to win a lot of games -- if for no other reason than the injuries and ineffectiveness of so many of the teams around them. Plus, as MacMahon pointed out, there is always time in the East, given we are looking at a conference that has two teams over .500 and a staggering 10 below that mark just three weeks into the season. That alone should make the 76ers the most likely pick to recover and get into the mix in the East.

Pelton: Can we count the Memphis Grizzlies as an injured team? After losing a record number of games to injuries a year ago, the Grizzlies are currently without starting perimeter players Desmond Bane, Ja Morant and Marcus Smart and have seen reserves GG Jackson II, Cam Spencer and Vince Williams Jr. miss every game so far this season. Yet Memphis continues to roll along better than .500 thanks to strong performances by Jay Huff and Scotty Pippen Jr. -- both recently promoted from two-way contracts -- and second-round pick Jaylen Wells. The Grizzlies' plus-8.2 point differential ranks third in the West, suggesting Memphis could return to the contender ranks if it can get healthy over the course of the season.

McMenamin: I'm picking Philly here, too. As dismal of a start to the season as it has been -- and believe me, you should see some of the texts I've received from my family and friends back home who are already in full-on meltdown mode about how bad the Sixers stink -- Embiid is a top-three two-way talent when he's on the court. His presence alone will change the Sixers' trajectory.

Collier: It's Philly. Despite the slow start, the way the rest of the East has shaken out is reason enough to avoid real panic. With Embiid back, I could see him providing the same kind of lift he did last season when the team went on a winning streak heading into the play-in tournament. The top two seeds might have a head start on securing their spots, but the other four guaranteed playoff spots should be in flux all season in the East.

Which top-6 team over the past week is most likely to miss the playoffs?

MacMahon: The team that has the sixth spot in the Western Conference, which was the Lakers entering this week by virtue of tiebreakers as one of five teams with 6-4 records. There are going to be a few pretty good teams left out of the West playoffs. Eleven teams in the conference entered the week .500 or better. The Lakers were the lone team in that bunch that did not have a positive point differential.

Bontemps: The Lakers are the best answer to the question for the simple fact that we are already seeing wear and tear on Anthony Davis after his incredible start to the season, and if he misses any time at all, this Lakers team is going to struggle immensely. New coach JJ Redick is also already going through his roster searching for answers, much like Darvin Ham did the past couple of years. The problem is there aren't a lot of clear solutions. If Davis can stay on the court more than 75 games and continue this level of production, he'll be a first-team All-NBA player and the Lakers will have a very good chance of finishing in the top six. But he has already missed a game, is dealing with plantar fasciitis -- which doesn't go away quickly -- and now has an eye issue.

McMenamin: The Miami Heat. I know I'm breaking an unwritten rule betting against Heat culture -- and I haven't forgotten about their improbable run to the NBA Finals as the No. 8 seed in 2022-23 -- but Jimmy Butler's drop-off is concerning. He's averaging his fewest points per game in a decade and shooting an anemic 15.4% from 3. And this performance comes on the heels of Butler and the Heat failing to reach an agreement on a contract extension in the offseason. If Butler's play continues to stagnate, Miami will certainly be motivated to find a trade partner, considering that if it doesn't, Butler would assuredly pick up his $52.4 million option for next season. And if the Heat move Butler, there's no telling what direction the rest of the season would go.

Pelton: MacMahon is right, the answer would be whoever is currently atop the pile of West teams from sixth through 10th. Right now, tiebreakers are the difference between advancing automatically to the playoffs or having to win two games on the road to get there. The standings might not stay quite that tight, but we saw a three-game gap between sixth and 10th last season, and the West looks even deeper by virtue of dominating early head-to-head matchups with the East.

Collier: The Orlando Magic are in a tough spot, facing extended time without star Paolo Banchero, who is sidelined by a torn right oblique. This young Magic team is going to have to learn to win without its No. 1 option, especially after Banchero opened the season on one of the best runs of his young career (29 points, 8.8 rebounds and 5.6 assists per game). The rest of the conference is giving the Magic room to breathe, but both Philadelphia and Milwaukee expect to make a push to claim some of the remaining playoff spots. Even though Banchero should play again this season, the fact the Magic will be playing at least a month without him likely means they will have to make up some ground when he returns to get back to the playoffs.

Bold prediction:

MacMahon: Nikola Jokic will win MVP. Again. Maybe it shouldn't be considered a bold prediction considering Jokic has won three of the past four MVPs, but fair or not, the bar for him to win a fourth is extraordinarily high because of the historical implications. He's clearing that bar, carrying a thin Denver roster while putting up the best numbers of his career, leading the league in rebounds (13.7 per game) and assists (11.7) while ranking fourth in scoring (29.7). There simply isn't a credible argument to be made that anyone else is currently the NBA's best player.

Bontemps: I'm not sure how bold it is at this point, but I'm going to call my shot and say the New Orleans Pelicans don't get into the play-in tournament. It's not through any fault of their own, as they are currently missing four of their top players -- Zion Williamson, Dejounte Murray, Herb Jones and CJ McCollum -- for extended periods because of injuries. But, in the unforgiving Western Conference, it's extremely difficult to dig out of the kind of hole this team has itself in. This was expected to be a big year for the Pels, after they traded for Murray and with Williamson coming off the healthiest season of his career. It's instead looking a lot like the season the Grizzlies had a year ago, when a snake-bitten roster wound up with a top-10 pick. At least this is expected to be a loaded draft, but that wasn't the conversation the Pelicans were looking to have.

McMenamin: The Charlotte Hornets will play an exciting brand of basketball with new coach Charles Lee and LaMelo Ball (averaging nearly 30 points per game) -- Brandon Miller, Miles Bridges, Tre Mann and Nick Richards round out the Hornets' core -- but will choose to prioritize the draft and fade down the stretch. The Hornets' 2025 first round pick will convey to the San Antonio Spurs if it falls outside the lottery, so Charlotte will land in the bottom 14 of what promises to be a loaded draft despite probably having enough talent to make a run at a play-in berth this season.

Pelton: The Pistons won't just make the play-in tournament, they'll win a game there. New coach J.B. Bickerstaff has the Pistons defending at a league-average level, and Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey have both taken steps forward on offense with more shooting around them. Just making the play-in would be a huge accomplishment for Detroit, which last won more than 23 games in 2018-19.

Collier: The Warriors will make the Western Conference finals. Golden State has replaced future Hall of Famer Klay Thompson with a crop of solid role players who fit their system extremely well. With Curry still playing at a superstar level, he will lift the Warriors to one more Olympics-style run through the postseason. The Warriors will claim one of the West's top seeds and clear a path to the conference finals again.