Book predicts the coming Gen Z political wave

Women and LGBTQ+ members of Gen Z are more politically engaged than young voters of earlier generations. Their out-of-the-gate leftward tilt could have a transformative impact, a new book argues.

The big picture: Gen Z — which includes those born between 1997 and 2012 — is the most racially and ethnically diverse generation in U.S. history. Their views on religion, racial equity and reproductive rights could signal a dramatic realignment of American culture.

• An estimated 40.8 million Gen Zers will be eligible to vote in 2024 — accounting for about 1 in 6 of the eligible American voters.

State of play: Gen Z's political views have been shaped by a decade of upheaval and massive demographic changes, according to Melissa Deckman's "The Politics of Gen Z: How the Youngest Voters Will Shape Our Democracy."

• Deckman, the CEO of the nonpartisan Public Religion Research Institute, tells Axios that Gen Z ("Zoomers") came of age during an uptick in school shootings, the police killing of George Floyd, #MeToo, Donald Trump's 2016 election and the Supreme Court's Dobbs decision.
• Using several national surveys and nearly 100 interviews, Deckman illustrates how the generation's views on gender and sexuality shape their fight for a more inclusive nation.
• "Their goals are to have a more inclusive democracy that represents everyone," Deckman told Axios. "And there's definitely a hunger among most Gen Zers for change, generational change."

Zoom in: The author, who used various surveys for her conclusions, found that Gen Z women participated at higher levels in politics than Gen Z men during the Trump administration — a historic reverse gender gap in political participation.

• Gen Z women and LGBTQ+ Zoomers were far less likely to be Republicans than older generations and less likely to identify as white evangelical Christians, a PRRI survey found.
• Fewer Gen Z men were Republicans than other generations and weren't as engaged on issues like reproductive rights, though they recognized the role sexism played in U.S. politics.

What they're saying: "Roughly 1 in 4 Zoomers are queer or identify as LGBTQ. This is at much higher levels than in the general population," Deckman says.

• About 28% of Gen Z adults identify as LGBTQ, compared with 16% of millennials, 7% of Generation X (born 1965–1980), 4% of baby boomers (1946–1964) and 4% of the Silent Generation (1928–1945), another PRRI survey found.
• That fact alone foretells how Gen Z overall will respond to the country's current dominant forms of Christianity, from white evangelicalism to white Catholicism, Deckman says.

Gen Z adults are notably less likely to identify as white Christians (27%) compared to baby boomers (54%), a PRRI survey in January found. They're also more likely to identify as religiously unaffiliated (33%) than every generation except millennials.

• Most Gen Z Americans, particularly Gen Z Democrats, are more likely than older Americans to believe that generational change in political leadership is necessary to solve the country's problems, per the survey.

Zoom out: Vice President Kamala Harris is significantly more popular among America's youngest voters than President Biden, a new Axios/Generation Lab poll shows.

• Former President Trump appeared to be chipping away at Democrats' decades-long hold on the youth vote. But Harris could be extending the gap once again.

The bottom line: Deckman's book is the latest in a series of new Gen Z studies that serve as a warning for the Republican Party.

• It remains largely white and evangelical.
• Trump has tried to chip away at the Democrat's historic advantage with voters of color but could have torpedoed those efforts because of recent racists comments about immigrants and people of color.