By Opta Analyst | Created at 2024-10-29 21:22:16 | Updated at 2024-11-05 21:01:03
6 days ago
We look ahead to Saturday’s Premier League game at the Vitality Stadium with our Bournemouth vs Arsenal prediction and preview. The Gunners are the Opta supercomputer’s favourites as they look to keep the pressure on at the Premier League’s summit.
Bournemouth vs Arsenal Stats: The Key Insights
- The Opta supercomputer has Arsenal as strong favourites to win this one, with the visitors winning 53.5% of its 10,000 pre-match simulations.
- Arsenal’s 3-1 win over Southampton last time out was their 1,999th top-flight win. Victory here will see them become the second side to reach 2,000, after Liverpool (2,065).
- Bournemouth have had more shot-ending high turnovers than any other side in the Premier League this season (18), while only three sides have faced fewer such shots than the Cherries (six).
Arsenal will look to continue their unbeaten start to the season when they travel to the Vitality Stadium to take on Bournemouth in the Premier League on Saturday.
Arsenal are yet to lose any of their 10 games in all competitions so far this term, winning seven of those. It’s the Gunners’ longest unbeaten run to kick off a season since the 2007-08 campaign, when they went 21 games in all competitions before tasting defeat.
That strong start left them heading into the international break third in the Premier League, just a point off leaders Liverpool.
Bournemouth have struggled against top-half sides of late, with each of their last 10 Premier League wins coming against opponents in the bottom half of the table. They are winless in their last 11 against teams in the top half since beating Manchester United 3-0 in December last year (four draws, seven losses).
Andoni Iraola’s men sit 13th in the Premier League, and three defeats in their last four matches have left them just five points above the relegation places after seven matches.
Their hopes of victory on Saturday will not be brightened when looking at Arsenal’s formidable form on the road, with Arteta’s side unbeaten away from home in the Premier League in 2024.
Arsenal have won 10 of their 12 Premier League away games this calendar year, with the only two occasions they’ve failed to win coming away at Manchester City in March and then September.
Arsenal also boast serious firepower in attack, with Kai Havertz having been involved in 20 goals in his last 21 Premier League appearances (13 goals, seven assists). His first goal for Arsenal came in this exact fixture last season, netting a penalty in a 4-0 victory.
But Havertz is one of a few injury doubts for Arsenal ahead of this fixture. They remain without key man Martin Ødegaard, while Havertz, Gabriel Martinelli and Thomas Partey are all doubts, although Arteta seemed positive about their chances on Friday. Ben White could feature after missing the last four games though, and Bukayo Saka is likely to be fit to play despite limping off for England.
Saka has scored 49 Premier League goals for Arsenal. Aged 23 years and 44 days on the day of Saturday’s game, a goal against Bournemouth would make him the youngest to net 50 for the club in the competition (and the 11th player overall to reach that landmark for Arsenal).
Bournemouth’s Antoine Semenyo has also impressed this season, leading his side with four goal involvements (3G, 1A). He also ranks among the top 10 Premier League players for attacking sequence involvements, together with teammate Marcus Tavernier. For a list that is almost exclusively made up of players from the so-called Big Six, it’s impressive to see Bournemouth’s wingers featuring.
The Cherries’ injury list is much shorter with Tyler Adams the only concern, though the United States international could yet be in line to make his first Premier League appearance of the season.
Bournemouth vs Arsenal Head-to-Head
Bournemouth have lost 11 of their 14 Premier League games against Arsenal, though all three exceptions have been in home games (3-3 in January 2017, 2-1 in January 2018, 1-1 in December 2019).
Since Bournemouth returned to the Premier League in 2022, Arsenal have won all four of their games against them by an aggregate score of 13-2, netting three or more goals each time.
The last clash between the two sides was back in May, with goals from Saka, Leandro Trossard and Declan Rice helping Arsenal to a comfortable 3-0 home victory.
Bournemouth vs Arsenal Prediction
The Opta supercomputer is strongly backing Arsenal to make it five straight victories in all competitions, winning 53.5% of pre-match simulations.
Bournemouth are given a 22.9% chance of taking the three points themselves, while a draw that would see Arsenal drop points on the road in the Premier League for just the third time in 2024 occurs 23.6% of the time.
Arsenal may sit third currently, but they are considered second-favourites for the title, winning the league 19.7% of the time, with Man City’s chances of lifting the trophy for a fifth straight time rated at 69.6%.
The supercomputer is predicting Bournemouth to finish 14th, comfortably safe from the drop, while they are relegated in just 6.1% of simulations.
Bournemouth vs Arsenal Predicted Lineups
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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