Bournemouth vs Brentford Prediction

Andoni Iraola’s Bournemouth look to revitalize their fading push for Champions League qualification as they welcome Brentford to the Vitality Stadium. We assess Saturday’s game with our Bournemouth vs Brentford prediction and preview.

Bournemouth vs Brentford Stats: The Key Insights

• The Opta supercomputer is banking on a Bournemouth win, with the Cherries winning 52.6% of simulations.
• With two goal involvements this weekend, Yoane Wissa could become just the second Brentford player to be involved in 50 Premier League goals (39 goals, 9 assists) goals after Bryan Mbeumo.
• Bournemouth like to leave it late – the Cherries have scored more goals in second-half stoppage time than any other Premier League side (8).

It was all going so well for Bournemouth. The Cherries were flying under Andoni Iraola and dreaming of qualifying for European competition. But a blip in form has thrown that dream into flux. Saturday’s visit of Brentford may well be their last chance to get their season back on track.

Bournemouth’s form of late is among the worst in the Premier League. After going unbeaten in 11 games between November and January (W7 D4), they have now lost three in five (W1 D1). Only Southampton, Ipswich, and Leicester – the current bottom three sides in the league – have earned fewer points than Bournemouth (4) since the start of February.

The Cherries’ home record is also concerning, having lost consecutive Premier League matches at the Vitality Stadium. They have lost three in a row at home on just two occasions in the competition (April 2016 and December 2019).

Even more worrying for Iraola will be Brentford’s away form. The Bees have won each of their last four on the road, as many as they’d won in their previous 27 away games (D4 L19). It has been close to 15 years since Brentford last won five consecutive away matches, back in League One in December 2010.

Fitness will likely play a role on Saturday. Iraola has established his side as one of the more consistent in the league over 90 minutes, with a penchant for deciding games late on. They’ve scored more goals in second-half stoppage time than any other side in the Premier League this season (8).

Conversely, Brentford are among the most likely in the league to let their concentration lapse in the late stages. Only Aston Villa (8) have conceded more goals than Brentford (6) after the 90-minute mark.

And if anyone is to score those late goals for Bournemouth, it may well be Justin Kluivert, who is enjoying his most successful scoring season to date. He leads Bournemouth for both goals (12) and assists (6) in the Premier League, most recently scoring in a 2-1 loss to Brighton in February.

Kluivert is on track to become the first Bournemouth player to finish a season top for both goals and assists across a full top-flight campaign, though Marcus Tavernier is not far behind, with five assists.

Antoine Semenyo is enjoying one of his most productive seasons too, with seven goals and four assists in 27 league appearances. His driving dribbles have often kept Bournemouth on the front foot – only Cole Palmer (35) has had more shots following a ball carry than him (32) this season.

But Brentford are equally able to compare themselves with the league’s best. With 10 matches yet to play, Mikkel Damsgaard has already set a club record for most assists in a single campaign (10). He has a long way to go to dethrone to current leader, though. Damsgaard is second only to Mohammed Salah but has significant ground to make up if he is to equal the Egyptian’s tally of 17.

Wissa will also have an eye on a record this weekend. He is just two goal involvements away from 50 in the Premier League (39 goals, 9 assists), and would become just the second Brentford player to reach that milestone after Bryan Mbeumo should he achieve it. With three goals and one assist in his last two league appearances, there is every chance he could hit the mark on Saturday.

Bournemouth will be without centre-back Ilya Zabarnyi, who is still serving a suspension. The Ukrainian was sent off for a reckless tackle against Wolves. Also absent are Enes Ünal, Marcos Senesi, Julián Araujo, and Adam Smith.

Brentford’s injuries are comparatively dramatic. Summer signing Fábio Carvalho is out until May after undergoing surgery on a dislocated shoulder, while Josh Dasilva, Rico Henry, and Aaron Hickey are all due to return from injury in early April.

Michael Kayode will face a late fitness test to see whether he will make the squad for Bournemouth, while Sepp van den Berg is also due to return to training in the coming weeks.

Bournemouth vs Brentford Head-to-Head

The reverse of this fixture in November was a high-scoring affair as Brentford earned a 3-2 win thanks to Wissa’s brace, his goals coming either side of Damsgaard’s equaliser.

Brentford have a better Premier League record against Bournemouth than any other opponent, going unbeaten in five matches (W3 D2). Given that, it’s unsurprising to note Bournemouth have never played as many Premier League matches against a single side without ever winning.

The Cherries last beat Brentford in August 2014, winning 1-0 at home in the Championship. They are winless in their last eight league games against the Bees (D2 L6).

Bournemouth vs Brentford Prediction

Despite Brentford’s impressive away record, the Opta supercomputer foresees a Bournemouth win in 52.6% of simulations.

If the predictions are accurate, a win could see Iraola’s men climb as high as fifth in the table, pending results elsewhere.

Brentford win in just under a quarter of simulations, with a draw making up the remaining 22.5%.

Bournemouth vs Brentford Predicted Lineups

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

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