By Opta Analyst | Created at 2025-03-28 17:13:33 | Updated at 2025-04-05 02:03:40
1 week ago
We look ahead to Sunday’s FA Cup game at the Vitality Stadium with our Bournemouth vs Man City prediction and preview. Who will push on to Wembley?
Bournemouth vs Manchester City Stats: The Key Insights
- Manchester City are made the favourites to progress to the semi-finals by the Opta supercomputer.
- Bournemouth beat Man City 2-1 when they played in the league in November.
- Man City have won their last seven FA Cup quarter-final ties.
When making predictions for how the Premier League season would pan out, not many would have forecasted that Manchester City would be well out of the title race and the UEFA Champions League by the time the March international break came around.
Yet here we are. With that break over and done with, Man City’s only hope of silverware now comes in the form of the FA Cup.
Of the eight quarter-finalists, City are seen as the favourites. However, they will face a stern test at the Vitality Stadium against Bournemouth on Sunday.
The Cherries looked well set to push for Champions League qualification earlier this season, though Andoni Iraola’s team have dipped as of late. They have lost three of their last four Premier League matches, and in the one draw in that run, they threw away a 2-0 lead against Tottenham Hotspur.
That streak has left them in 10th, though such is the congested nature of the race for Europe, they are only four points behind fifth-place Man City, and on their day, Bournemouth have already proved they are capable of giving any team a game.
This is just Bournemouth’s third appearance in the FA Cup quarter-finals, with the Cherries losing 2-1 against Manchester United in 1956-57 and 3-0 against Southampton in 2020-21.
They have progressed from their last two FA Cup ties against top-flight opponents (against Everton and Wolves in this season’s fourth and fifth rounds), as many as they had in their previous 17 such ties.
Antoine Semenyo netted in a 2-1 win over Man City earlier in the season, and he is certainly a major outlet for Bournemouth.
The winger has had 14 shots in the FA Cup this season, with half of these coming in Bournemouth’s fifth round tie against Wolves. Only Luke Molyneux (19) has had more shots in the competition proper this term.
City, beaten finalists last season, have won the FA Cup twice under Pep Guardiola, in 2018-19 and 2022-23.
They have won their last 14 away games in the competition, scoring 40 goals and conceding 10. Their last defeat on the road came at Wigan Athletic in February 2018, with their last four FA Cup losses coming at Wembley Stadium.
City have won their last seven FA Cup quarter-final ties, with these coming in the last eight campaigns (exception being 2017-18). Their run of reaching the semi-final in six consecutive campaigns is already a record in the competition.
They made hard work of beating Plymouth Argyle in the fifth round, but got over the line eventually. Kevin De Bruyne scored and assisted in that win, and the Belgian has been involved in 13 goals in his last 10 appearances in the FA Cup (three goals, 10 assists).
Guardiola’s team remain without a number of first-choice players. Rodri, Nathan Aké, John Stones, Manuel Akanji will all miss this game, while Ederson and Josko Gvardiol are doubts.
Bournemouth vs Manchester City Head-to-Head
Bournemouth’s win over City at the Vitality Stadium in November was the Cherries’ first ever victory against the Citizens in all competitions, from 21 previous meetings (D2 L19).
This will be the first ever FA Cup meeting between the two sides.
It is just the third time Bournemouth have faced the reigning English champions in the competition. On both previous occasions, they lost: March 1957 (1-2 v Manchester United) and January 1961 (0-1 v Burnley).
Bournemouth vs Manchester City Prediction
While Man City are made the slight favourites, Opta’s model is forecasting a tight encounter.
Guardiola’s team came out in top in 43.2% of the pre-match data-led sims, while Bournemouth won 31.5%.
There is a good chance of this match finishing level, at 25.3%, so do not be surprised if this tie goes the distance to penalties.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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