By The Rio Times | Created at 2026-08-19 19:01:24 | Updated at 2026-08-19 19:52:38
1 hour ago
Brazil · Politics
Key Facts
- —The Brasília governor race Real Time Big Data puts Celina Leão on 34%, José Roberto Arruda on 22% and Leandro Grass on 18%.
- —The Brasília Senate race Michelle Bolsonaro leads on 25%, ahead of Leila Barros on 17%, with Bia Kicis and Erika Kokay tied on 15%.
- —The runoff caveat Flávio Bolsonaro 44% to Lula 39% is a Federal District result from 1,600 local voters, not a national poll.
- —The São Paulo race Paraná Pesquisas has Governor Tarcísio de Freitas on 50% and Fernando Haddad on 33.8%, a gap of just over 16 points.
- —The method Brasília fieldwork ran 14-18 August with a 2-point error margin; São Paulo ran 16-18 August with 2.4 points.
The eye-catching Flavio Bolsonaro lead over Lula comes from Brasília alone, a right-leaning enclave, not from Brazil as a whole.
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Two fresh Brazil election polls landed this week, and both carry a warning label. In Brasília, Celina Leão leads the race for governor and Michelle Bolsonaro leads for the Senate.
In São Paulo, Governor Tarcísio de Freitas sits on 50%, some 16 points clear of Fernando Haddad.
What the Brasília Poll Found
Real Time Big Data surveyed 1,600 voters in Brazil’s Federal District between 14 and 18 August. Celina Leão, the sitting governor, leads the race to keep her job with 34%.
Former governor José Roberto Arruda follows on 22%, while Leandro Grass of the Workers’ Party takes 18%. Paula Belmonte has 6% and Ricardo Cappelli has 5%.
Blank and spoiled ballots account for 6%, and another 8% of voters are undecided. The margin of error is two percentage points, at 95% confidence.
The Senate Race in the Capital
Michelle Bolsonaro, the former first lady, leads the Senate contest with 25%. This is her first run for office, and she stands for the Liberal Party.
Leila Barros follows on 17%. Bia Kicis and Erika Kokay are tied on 15%, so the fight for the second seat still looks wide open.
The Federal District elects two senators in October. Because voters pick two names, more than one of these candidates can win a seat.
Bia Kicis also runs for the Liberal Party, so the two allies share a base. Erika Kokay, a Workers’ Party veteran, holds the left flank.
Why the 44-39 Runoff Number Is Not National
The same survey also asked about a presidential runoff. Flávio Bolsonaro took 44% against 39% for President Lula, a five-point gap.
However, that question went to the same 1,600 Brasília voters. It is a Federal District result, and it is not a national one.
The distinction matters, because the capital leans well to the right of Brazil as a whole. Reading it as a nationwide verdict would be a mistake.
In the first round in Brasília, the two men are almost level. Lula has 36% and Flávio Bolsonaro has 35%.
How These Brazil Election Polls Compare With National Ones
National Brazil election polls this month tell a different story. Quaest, released on 14 August, had Lula on 43% and Flávio Bolsonaro on 40%.
BTG/Nexus, released three days later, put Lula on 47% and Flávio on 44%. Both gaps sit inside the margin of error, so the national race is effectively tied.
By contrast, the Brasília figure flips the order around. That is what a regional stronghold looks like once you break the numbers down.
Brazil holds a runoff only if nobody wins half the valid votes nationally. Local samples therefore say little about who eventually takes the presidency.
São Paulo: Tarcísio Well Clear of Haddad
Paraná Pesquisas polled 1,680 voters across 80 São Paulo municipalities from 16 to 18 August. Governor Tarcísio de Freitas leads with 50%.
Fernando Haddad, the former finance minister, has 33.8%. The gap is a little over 16 points, and it is far wider than the survey’s error margin.
In a simulated runoff, Tarcísio takes 53% to Haddad’s 36.9%. The margin of error is 2.4 points, and the poll is registered as SP-08913/2026.
Is Tarcísio Running for President?
No. Tarcísio registered with the electoral court as a candidate for re-election as governor of São Paulo. Registrations closed on 15 August, so the field is now fixed.
Despite years of speculation, he is not on the presidential ballot. The Liberal Party’s presidential candidate is Flávio Bolsonaro instead.
His father, Jair Bolsonaro, is ineligible and cannot run this year.
Who Is Celina Leão?
Celina Leão was elected vice-governor in 2022 on Ibaneis Rocha’s ticket. She took the top job on 30 March 2026, after he stepped down to chase a Senate seat.
Ibaneis later abandoned that bid. Celina Leão therefore goes into October as an incumbent with only a few months in the chair.
The Arruda Question
José Roberto Arruda governed the Federal District from 2007 to 2010. He left office during the Caixa de Pandora corruption scandal and was later convicted of administrative misconduct.
His party launched him anyway. Still, the courts have not settled whether the Clean Record law bars him, so his place on the ballot remains uncertain.
How the Two Surveys Were Run
Brazilian pollsters must register each survey with the electoral court before publication. The Brasília study carries registration DF-07849/2026 for the state races.
Its presidential question was filed separately as BR-05423/2026, even though it used the same 1,600 local respondents. Real Time Big Data paid for the work itself.
Paraná Pesquisas also funded its own São Paulo survey. Face-to-face interviews covered 80 municipalities, and the confidence level is 95%.
What Happens Next
Brazilians vote on 4 October, with runoffs on 25 October where no one clears half the valid votes. About 158.7 million voters are registered nationally.
More Brazil election polls will land through September, so these numbers will move. For now, treat the Brasília runoff figure as a local snapshot rather than a national verdict.
The capital holds only a small slice of Brazil’s electorate. Even a landslide there barely moves a national total of 158.7 million registered voters.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is the 44% to 39% runoff result a national poll?
No. It comes from Real Time Big Data’s survey of 1,600 voters in Brazil’s Federal District only. National polls in August put Lula narrowly ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro.
Is Tarcísio de Freitas running for president in 2026?
No. He registered as a candidate for re-election as governor of São Paulo before the 15 August deadline. Paraná Pesquisas tested him for the governorship, not the presidency.
Who leads the Federal District Senate race?
Michelle Bolsonaro, on 25%. Leila Barros has 17%, while Bia Kicis and Erika Kokay are tied on 15%.
When does Brazil vote?
The first round is on 4 October 2026. Runoffs for president and state governors take place on 25 October 2026.
Sources: Poder360; Metrópoles; R7; UOL; Gazeta do Povo.
