Brazil’s Calculated Resistance to China’s Belt and Road Initiative

Brazil’s stance on China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) reflects a nuanced approach to international relations. The South American nation has maintained a delicate balance between engaging with China and preserving its autonomy.

This strategy aligns with Brazil’s long-standing diplomatic tradition of avoiding automatic alignments with superpowers. The BRI, launched in 2013, is a massive infrastructure project spanning continents.

It aims to enhance China’s global influence through investments and trade partnerships. The initiative has attracted 147 countries, representing two-thirds of the world’s population and 40% of global GDP.

Despite China’s courtship, Brazil has refrained from joining the BRI. This decision stems from a combination of factors, including diplomatic tradition and pragmatic considerations.

Brazil’s foreign policy typically seeks to maintain dialogue with various blocs while advancing its own agenda. China has been Brazil’s largest trading partner since 2009.

Brazil’s Calculated Resistance to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. (Photo Internet reproduction)

In the first nine months of 2024, trade between the two nations reached $122 billion. This figure represents a 5% increase compared to the same period in the previous year.

Chinese Direct Investment in Brazil

Chinese direct investment in Brazil has also been substantial. In 2023, it amounted to $1.73 billion, a 33% increase from 2022.

Since 2007, China has invested $72 billion in Brazil, focusing on sectors such as power transmission, oil exploration, and electric vehicle manufacturing.

Given these existing ties, Brazilian policymakers question the additional benefits of joining the BRI. They believe the current level of Chinese investment and trade is already significant.

Joining the initiative might not yield substantial extra gains for Brazil. Moreover, Brazil’s decision reflects concerns about potential repercussions from other global powers.

The United States, in particular, views China as its main geopolitical rival. Brazilian diplomats worry that aligning too closely with China could strain relations with other important partners.

The Brazilian government also fears losing negotiating power within the BRI framework. They prefer maintaining bilateral relations with China rather than being part of a larger group of nations.

This approach allows Brazil to retain more control over its engagement with China. Despite Brazil’s reluctance, experts do not anticipate retaliation from China.

The relationship between the two countries remains strong and mutually beneficial. China’s pragmatic approach to international relations suggests it will continue to value its partnership with Brazil.