Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for Friday, September 18, 2026

Brazil Markets — Morning Call

Two central banks moved in opposite directions within hours of each other this week. Brazilian traders open Friday holding a narrower interest-rate cushion than they held on Tuesday.

São Paulo’s financial district, where B3 sets the price of Brazilian risk each morning. (Photo: Wilfredor, CC BY-SA 4.0 via Wikimedia Commons)

Brazil begins Friday with the carry trade that underwrites the real looking thinner than it did on Monday. The Copom cut the Selic to 13.75% on Wednesday evening; the Federal Reserve raised its target range the same afternoon.

The Rate Collision Nobody Priced

The Copom cut by a quarter point for the fifth meeting running, moving the Selic from 14.00% to 13.75%. The vote was unanimous and the statement promised to act with what the committee called serenity and caution.

Hours earlier the Federal Reserve had gone the other way, lifting its range to 3.75% to 4.00%. It was the first American increase since 2023, and Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation had been too high for too long.

That leaves the gap between Brazilian and American policy rates narrower than at any point this cycle. Investors who borrow cheaply abroad to hold Brazilian paper now earn less for the same currency risk.

What Thursday Actually Did

The Ibovespa finished at 185,992 points, up 0.24%, after dipping more than one percent during the session. Turnover reached R$18.6 billion, and the recovery came once traders read the week’s political news as market-friendly rather than fiscally reckless.

Yduqs led the index with a 3.07% gain, followed by Santander Brasil at 2.52% and Vale at 2.07%. CSN Mineração fell 5.59%, Cury lost 5.15% and Marcopolo dropped 5.08%.

The dollar closed at R$5.139 on B3, a fall of 0.24% that left the real slightly stronger. Bradesco’s preferred shares were the most heavily traded name on the exchange.

Tokyo Changed the Overnight Picture

The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark to 1.25% from 1.00% on Friday morning in Asia. That is the highest Japanese policy rate in thirty-one years, and the Nikkei still rose 1.38% to 65,024 points.

Japanese money has funded carry trades across emerging markets for a generation. A Japanese rate at 1.25% does not end that, but it raises the cost of the borrowing that feeds it.

The Brazilian Calendar

Brazil is not empty today. The Getúlio Vargas Foundation releases the second September preview of the IGP-M wholesale index at 08:00 in Brasília.

From the United States, industrial production and capacity utilisation land at 10:15 in Brasília time. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speaks at 10:30 and Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid at 12:45.

The weekly Commitments of Traders positioning data follows at 16:30. Argentina publishes its August trade balance at 16:00 in Buenos Aires, with forecasts near US$2.055 billion against July’s US$2.115 billion.

Corporate Brazil

Bradesco raised R$6.541 billion in the first phase of a capital increase of up to R$10 billion. That fell short of the R$8 billion floor the bank had set for the stage.

The remaining shares now go to a further distribution. Investors read the shortfall as a test of appetite for Brazilian bank equity.

The Supreme Federal Court’s investigation into Banco Master remains a weight on financial names. Traders reading bank risk this morning have two live stories rather than one.

What to Watch

The first question is whether the real holds below R$5.15 with a smaller rate cushion behind it. The second is how the IGP-M preview reads against an easing cycle that has now run five meetings.

Chile’s exchange is shut today for Fiestas Patrias, which thins regional liquidity. Brazilian volumes often soften on a Friday before a two-week election run-in, and the first round falls on 4 October.

More: Brazil Markets, every day from The Rio Times.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Selic rate now?

The Copom cut the Selic to 13.75% a year on Wednesday 16 September, down from 14.00%. It was the fifth consecutive quarter-point reduction and the decision was unanimous.

What did the Federal Reserve do?

The Fed raised its target range to 3.75% to 4.00% on Wednesday 16 September. It was the first American increase since 2023, and projections point to at least one more before year-end.

Where did the Ibovespa close on Thursday?

The index ended at 185,992 points, a gain of 0.24%, on turnover of R$18.6 billion. It had been down more than one percent earlier in the session.

What is the dollar worth in Brazil?

The dollar closed at R$5.139 on B3 on Thursday, down 0.24% on the day. That left the real marginally stronger against the American currency.

What Brazilian data comes out today?

The Getúlio Vargas Foundation publishes the second September preview of the IGP-M wholesale inflation index at 08:00 in Brasília. There are no other major domestic releases.

Why does the Bank of Japan matter to Brazil?

Japanese borrowing costs have funded carry trades into emerging markets for decades. The move to 1.25%, a thirty-one-year high, raises the cost of that funding.

Sources: Copom statement and Banco Central do Brasil; B3 session data; Exame and InfoMoney session reports; Bank of Japan monetary policy statement, 18 September 2026; Getúlio Vargas Foundation release calendar; INDEC publication schedule.