By The Rio Times | Created at 2025-01-17 08:48:01 | Updated at 2025-01-31 07:05:34
1 week ago
As Brazil’s financial markets commence trading on this Friday, January 17, 2025, the economic agenda will be pivotal in shaping market dynamics with a range of data releases both domestically and internationally.
Today’s focus will be on inflation indicators from Brazil, Germany, and the United States, alongside housing and industrial activity data from major economies, which collectively can influence investor sentiment, policy expectations, and market movements.
Economic Agenda for January 17, 2025
Brazil
08:00 AM – IGP-10: This inflation index, compiled by the Getúlio Vargas Foundation, measures price trends across various sectors including producers, consumers, and construction. Its release is key for gauging short-term inflationary pressures, which can influence interest rate expectations and market sentiment.
Eurozone
05:00 AM – German Buba President Nagel Speaks: Insights from Nagel could provide direction on ECB’s monetary policy, affecting Eurozone markets and potentially influencing investment flows into and out of Brazil.
05:00 AM – Core CPI (YoY) (Dec), CPI (MoM) (Dec), CPI (YoY) (Dec): These German inflation figures are crucial for understanding price stability in Europe’s largest economy, which could impact ECB policy decisions, affecting global markets including Brazil.
Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for January 17, 2025. (Photo Internet reproduction)United States
08:30 AM – Building Permits and Housing Starts (Dec): These indicators reflect the health of the U.S. housing market, which can influence broader economic sentiment and affect global capital flows.
09:15 AM – Industrial Production (MoM and YoY) (Dec): This data provides insights into manufacturing activity, which is significant for global trade and commodity demands, directly impacting Brazilian exports.
12:15 AM – Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4): An update on U.S. GDP growth estimates can shape expectations about economic performance, influencing international trade and investment strategies.
01:00 PM – U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count, U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count: These figures indicate changes in oil and gas drilling activity, which could affect global oil prices, relevant for Brazil’s energy sector.
04:00 PM – TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (Nov): This data shows foreign investment in U.S. securities, reflecting investor sentiment towards the dollar and U.S. economy, potentially influencing emerging market currencies like the Brazilian real.
United Kingdom
02:00 AM – Retail Sales data (MoM and YoY) (Dec): UK retail sales are an indicator of consumer spending health, which might sway global investor confidence and affect markets in Brazil.
Other Countries
08:30 AM – CAD – Foreign Securities Purchases (Nov): Canadian investment data can reflect North American economic health, indirectly influencing Brazilian assets.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
The Ibovespa index fell by 1.15% on Thursday, closing at 121,234.14 points, reflecting profit-taking after previous gains. The commercial dollar rose by 0.48% to R$ 6.05, amid economic uncertainty and reactions to U.S. retail sales data.
Brazil’s IBC-Br showed a positive growth of 0.10%, indicating some economic resilience despite concerns. Meanwhile, a survey suggested a potential decrease in Brazil’s fiscal deficit for 2025, which could positively impact market sentiment.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
U.S. stock indexes saw a decline, with the S&P 500 slipping 0.2%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.2%, and the Nasdaq composite dropping 0.9%. This followed a day of gains fueled by inflation data but was tempered by mixed earnings reports and cautious interpretations of economic data. Treasury yields eased, suggesting a market adjusting to the possibility of Federal Reserve policy shifts.
Commodity Markets
Oil Prices
Oil prices declined following easing tensions in the Middle East, which could influence Brazil’s oil sector and broader commodity markets.
Gold Prices
Gold prices rose amid expectations of softer Fed policies in 2025, highlighting its role as a safe-haven asset amidst global economic uncertainties.
Bitcoin Price
Bitcoin has reached a milestone, surpassing $100,000 on January 17, 2025. The world’s leading cryptocurrency traded at $101,586.72 at 7:00 AM GMT, marking a 1.60% increase in 24 hours.
Corporate and Market Highlights
Vale and Saudi Arabia Partnership: A strategic move towards green steel production could bolster Brazil’s mining sector.
Cosan Sells Vale Stake: This move to reduce debt reflects strategic financial restructuring within Brazil’s corporate sector.
Brazil Revokes Pix Monitoring Rule: Amidst a fake news storm, this could influence investor confidence in Brazil’s digital payment systems.
Brazil’s Credit Revolution: The increase in capital market lending to 28.8% of corporate financing suggests a maturing financial market.
Real Estate Sector: Mixed results from developers like Plano & Planos, Even Construtora, Cyrela, and Cury Construtora show a sector navigating through market challenges with varying success.
Outlook
Today’s trading will focus on the IGP-10, with investors looking for clues on inflation’s direction in Brazil. International data from the U.S., Germany, and the UK will also be crucial, potentially setting the tone for global market sentiment.
The interplay between these economic indicators and corporate developments in Brazil will be key for investors seeking a comprehensive view of market movements.
