By The Rio Times | Created at 2025-01-23 08:17:43 | Updated at 2025-01-31 17:51:52
1 week ago
Brazil’s financial markets are set for a significant day, with the Federal Tax Revenue at 10:30 AM expected to be a major determinant of investor sentiment. This local data release will be crucial in painting a picture of Brazil’s fiscal health, directly impacting market confidence and potential policy adjustments.
However, Brazil’s markets won’t operate in isolation; events from abroad will also play a pivotal role. For instance, U.S. employment data could signal global economic health, influencing commodity prices and trade relations that Brazil heavily relies on.
President Trump’s speech might introduce policy shifts affecting global trade, which could ripple through to Brazilian exports and currency valuation.
Additionally, monetary policy decisions from Japan might sway investor sentiment globally, impacting capital flows into or out of Brazil. With these international cues, traders will be on high alert, trying to navigate through the complex interplay of domestic and foreign economic signals.
Economic Agenda for January 23, 2025
Brazil
10:30 AM – Federal Tax Revenue: A key metric for assessing fiscal health and government’s borrowing needs.
United States
- 8:30 AM – Initial Jobless Claims: Provides a snapshot of new unemployment claims.
- 8:30 AM – Continuing Jobless Claims: Reflects ongoing unemployment, indicating labor market stability.
- 10:30 AM – Initial Jobless Claims: Another measure of labor market health.
- 11:00 AM – U.S. President Trump Speaks: Could have immediate implications for market sentiment.
- 12:00 PM – Crude Oil Inventories: Influences oil price forecasts.
- 12:00 PM – Cushing Crude Oil Inventories: Significant for oil storage and price dynamics.
- 1:00 PM – 10-Year TIPS Auction: Indicates inflation expectations.
- 4:30 PM – Fed’s Balance Sheet: Signals Federal Reserve’s monetary policy direction.
Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for January 23, 2025. (Photo Internet reproduction)Canada
- 8:30 AM – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov): Shows consumer spending excluding volatile items.
- 8:30 AM – Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov): A broader consumer activity indicator.
Japan
- 8:30 PM – CPI: Measures inflation, crucial for monetary policy.
- 9:30 PM – Services PMI: Reflects service sector performance.
- 11:30 PM – BoJ Monetary Policy Statement: Offers insights into future monetary policy.
- 6:30 PM – National Core CPI (YoY) (Dec): Highlights core inflation trends.
- 6:30 PM – National CPI (MoM) (Dec): Provides monthly inflation data.
- 7:30 PM – Services PMI (Jan): Another service sector health indicator.
- 9:30 PM – BoJ Monetary Policy Statement: Policy outlook.
- 10:00 PM – BoJ Outlook Report (YoY): Economic projections.
- 10:00 PM – BoJ Interest Rate Decision: Direct market impact.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
Ibovespa experienced a slight retreat, closing at 122,971.77 points, a 0.30% drop, largely due to Vale’s share decline. The U.S. dollar, however, lost ground against the real, dropping to R$ 5.9465, signaling a potential strengthening of the local currency amidst global uncertainties.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
The U.S. markets ended higher with tech giants like Netflix and Oracle leading the charge, showing resilience in the face of rising Treasury yields. This suggests a market betting on tech growth despite broader economic pressures.
- The S&P 500 rose 37.13 points, or 0.6%, to 6,086.37.
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 130.92 points, or 0.3%, to 44,156.73.
- The Nasdaq composite rose 252.56 points, or 1.3%, to 20,009.34.
- The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies fell 14.25 points, or 0.6%, to 2,303.72.
Commodity Markets
Oil Prices
Despite fears of overproduction, oil prices found some support from geopolitical tensions, hovering close to $80 per barrel.
Gold Prices
Gold prices edged up, reflecting investor caution over Trump’s policy unpredictability and a flight to safety.
Bitcoin Price
Bitcoin saw a correction, dropping to $102,488, signaling a market taking a breather from recent highs.
Companies and Markets
BTG Pactual highlighted fiscal concerns with a 5.8% inflation forecast for Brazil in 2025, stirring market apprehension.
Foreign Exchange in Brazil faced negative flows in January 2025, pressuring the real.
Oceanpact enjoyed a stock surge post a successful Petrobras auction, while Raizen grappled with a significant reduction in sugar output due to drought.
Brazil’s Agricultural Sector stands out as a potential driver for GDP growth, showing resilience against broader economic headwinds.
Drought Hits Raízen Hard: Brazil’s largest sugar and ethanol producer, released its operational data for the third quarter of the 2024/25 crop year.
Outlook
With the Federal Tax Revenue release, investors will gauge the government’s fiscal stability, which alongside international cues, could dictate the day’s trading sentiment.
The interplay between local fiscal data and global economic signals will be key, with commodity markets and corporate performances offering additional layers of complexity.
Today’s market movements will reflect not just immediate economic indicators but also the broader narrative of recovery, policy, and global economic interplay.
