By The Rio Times | Created at 2026-10-06 18:32:08 | Updated at 2026-10-06 21:22:09
3 hours ago
BRAZIL · ELECTIONS 2026
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Flávio Bolsonaro vs Lula: what happens next
First-round results, how the runoff works, the key dates and who backs whom, in one guide.
Key Facts
- —The country Brazil, with 158.7 million registered voters, picks its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October between Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula.
- —What happened No runoff poll has appeared since the first round. The electoral court’s registry lists the first nationwide surveys for Thursday 8 October.
- —The first two PoderData (3,000 phone interviews, margin 1.8 points) and Datafolha (2,520 face-to-face interviews, margin 2 points) both publish on 8 October.
- —The baseline Flávio won 47.03% of valid votes to Lula’s 45.16%, while Datafolha’s final first-round poll had Lula ahead, 45% to 42%.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro an 84.5% chance of winning the 25 October runoff (6 October, 1:28 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 84% and Kalshi at 86% (Lula: 16% and 14%), as of 6 October, 2:00 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- —Still open Whether the new runoff polls prove closer to the result than Datafolha’s final first-round survey, which had Flávio five points too low.
Brazil’s first runoff polls since the 4 October first round come out on Thursday 8 October, the electoral court’s public registry of surveys shows. PoderData and Datafolha are due first, with national figures on the 25 October race between Flávio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
For US investors, the numbers test a currency rally: the dollar has lost about 4.9% against Brazil’s real since Friday 2 October. US President Donald Trump called Flávio’s first-round lead “a big victory” on Monday 5 October.
Who Publishes the First Runoff Polls
PoderData, whose polls appear on the Brasília news site Poder360, filed its survey with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) on Friday 2 October. The TSE runs Brazil’s elections and logged the poll as BR-08134/2026.
Its 3,000 interviews use automated calls to landlines and mobile phones from Monday 5 to Wednesday 7 October. PoderData states a margin of error of 1.8 percentage points at 95% confidence.
The firm pays for the poll itself, at a declared cost of R$103,715 (about US$20,900). Conversions use the central bank’s rate of 4.97 reais to the US dollar on 6 October 2026.
Datafolha, the polling institute of the Folha group, filed its national runoff survey the same evening as BR-02949/2026. Its staff interview 2,520 voters face to face at busy public spots from Tuesday 6 to Thursday 8 October.
TV Globo and Empresa Folha da Manhã, publisher of the newspaper Folha de S.Paulo, are paying R$384,552 (about US$77,400). Datafolha states a margin of error of 2 points at 95% confidence.
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Four More Surveys Follow by 11 October
Brazil’s 1997 Elections Law requires each published poll to be registered at least five days ahead, and no runoff polls were filed for earlier release. Article 33 also makes pollsters disclose the sponsor, cost, method and margin of error.
AtlasIntel, a data company that polls online, follows on Friday 9 October with 5,000 interviews and a stated margin of 1 point. Its fieldwork began on Saturday 3 October, the day before the vote, and runs to 8 October.
The polling firm Instituto Vox Brasil also publishes on 9 October, from 2,100 interviews in voters’ homes between 5 and 7 October. It states a margin of 2.15 points.
Ipespe, a social and political research institute, releases 1,500 telephone interviews on Saturday 10 October. The polling firm Datatrends has filed 2,000 phone interviews, conducted from 7 to 9 October, for release on Sunday 11 October.
What the Last Polls Before the Vote Showed
Datafolha’s final first-round poll, based on 4,006 interviews on Saturday 3 October, gave Lula 45% of valid votes and Flávio 42%. Its runoff simulation that day had Lula on 47% and Flávio on 46% (a round-up of the final polls).
The count reversed that order. Flávio received 56,104,503 votes, or 47.03% of valid votes, against 53,879,538, or 45.16%, for Lula, the TSE’s final result shows.
That is a gap of 2,224,965 votes. The ten other candidates shared about 9.3 million votes, and 21.08% of registered voters stayed away.
Flávio, 45, has been a senator for Rio de Janeiro since 2019 and is a son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. He runs for the conservative Liberal Party (PL), whose national president is Valdemar Costa Neto.
Lula governed from 2003 to 2010 and has been president again since January 2023. His left-wing Workers’ Party (PT) is chaired by Edinho Silva.
What Prediction Markets Say
Bettors on Polymarket gave Flávio Bolsonaro an 84.5% chance of winning the runoff at 1:28 p.m. ET on Tuesday 6 October. Lula stood at 15.5%.
About US$174.4 million has been bet on the main market, with US$1.3 million traded in the previous 24 hours. Flávio’s price rose 2.1 points over that day.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 84.2% · Lula 15.5% (US$174 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 86% · Lula 14%
As of 6 October, 2:00 pm ET (19:00 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for You
For holders of Brazilian stocks, bonds or the real, Thursday’s runoff polls are the next big data point of the campaign. By the central bank’s reference rate, the dollar fell about 4.9% against the real from 2 to 6 October (how the real rallied).
Read the runoff polls as snapshots, not forecasts. Pollsters call a race a technical tie when the candidates’ ranges overlap, which with a 2-point margin covers leads up to 4 points.
Compare like with like. Datafolha and Vox Brasil interview in person, PoderData, Ipespe and Datatrends by phone, and AtlasIntel online, so the runoff polls can differ.
For readers in the United States, the runoff decides who leads Brazil in its dealings with Washington from January 2027.
What Is Not Known
The figures stay unknown until the release dates filed with the court. Part of AtlasIntel’s sample predates the first-round result, which may set its numbers apart from the other runoff polls.
It is unclear how the 9.3 million people who backed other candidates will vote on 25 October. The 33.5 million registered voters who stayed home could also tip the race.
Whether Quaest, which published a national survey on 3 October, will poll the runoff is unknown. The court’s list showed no new Quaest filing by early Tuesday 6 October.
How far a first poll would move the real or Brazilian shares is also open.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
When is the first poll of Brazil’s presidential runoff?
On Thursday 8 October. PoderData and Datafolha have both registered nationwide runoff polls for release that day with Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE).
Who is ahead in Brazil’s runoff race?
No runoff poll has been published since the first round. In that vote on 4 October, Flávio Bolsonaro took 47.03% of valid votes and Lula 45.16%.
Why must Brazilian election polls be registered?
The 1997 Elections Law requires every published election poll to be registered with the electoral courts at least five days beforehand. The filing lists the sponsor, cost, method, sample and margin of error.
When is the runoff between Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula?
On Sunday 25 October 2026. Flávio, a conservative senator, faces President Lula of the left-wing Workers’ Party because neither won a majority of valid votes on 4 October.
Sources: Superior Electoral Court (TSE), open data: registered election polls 2026 (pesquisa_eleitoral_2026, generated 6 October 2026, 05:53), 6 October 2026; TSE, open data: poll sponsors 2026 (pesquisa_contratante_2026), 6 October 2026; TSE open-data portal, Pesquisas Eleitorais 2026, accessed 6 October 2026; TSE, official presidential result, first round, 5 October 2026; Law 9.504/1997 (Elections Law), Article 33 (Planalto), accessed 6 October 2026; Central Bank of Brazil, PTAX reference rate (Olinda API), 6 October 2026; TSE, registered political parties, accessed 6 October 2026; Federal Senate, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro profile, accessed 6 October 2026; Roll Call Factba.se, Press Gaggle before Marine One departure, 5 October 2026; Estado de Minas, when the runoff polls come out, 6 October 2026; Band, when the first runoff polls come out, 5 October 2026; NSC Total, first Datafolha runoff poll, 6 October 2026; Exame, Datafolha first-round poll of 3 October, 3 October 2026; Estado de Minas, Datafolha runoff simulation of 3 October, 3 October 2026; Poder360, PoderData poll page, 3 September 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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