By Opta Analyst | Created at 2026-06-18 13:20:33 | Updated at 2026-06-20 08:19:03
1 day ago
Brazil are out to secure a first win of their World Cup 2026 campaign when they face off against Haiti in Philadelphia. Look ahead to the Group C contest with our Brazil vs Haiti prediction and preview.
Brazil vs Haiti: The Key Insights
- Brazil are considered the overwhelming favourites by the Opta supercomputer for this fixture, with a win probability of 87.3% to Haiti’s 4.3%.
- Vinícius Júnior has been involved in four goals in five appearances at the World Cup.
- Haiti had more shots than any other Group C side on MD1 (15).
Brazil are looking to light the touchpaper on their World Cup 2026 campaign when they face off with underdogs Haiti at Philadelphia Stadium.
Carlo Ancelotti’s side underwhelmed in a 1-1 draw with Morocco in their opening encounter, falling behind to Ismael Saibari’s 21st-minute opener before Vinícius Júnior bent in a lovely equaliser.
The Seleção will know they have more gears to work through, though, and as record five-time winners, they will still fancy their chances of going deep into the tournament.
And while they might have drawn with Morocco on Matchday 1, the promising news for the South American giants is that they have not failed to win either of their first two matches in a single World Cup tournament since drawing their opening two in the 1978 World Cup in Argentina.
Back in those days, only 16 teams qualified for the World Cup, and Brazil missed out on the final after only finishing second in Group B of the second-round phase.
However, Brazil have failed to win their last two World Cup group-stage matches, losing 1-0 to Cameroon in 2022 and now the 1-1 draw with Morocco this year. Only once previously have they gone three group games without a win, doing so across 1974 and 1978 (D2 L1).
With 48 teams contesting the tournament for the first time in 2026, Brazil are obviously still in a decent position, and it would take a brave bet to believe they will not make the last 32.
Still, there will be a concern that against Morocco they faced more shots (14) than they registered themselves (12). That was the first time that has occurred for Brazil in a World Cup fixture since the 2006 quarter-finals against France, ending a run of 22 consecutive games with a shot advantage.
Vinícius is likely to be vital if they are to win a sixth World Cup, and the Real Madrid ace has now been involved in four goals in five World Cup appearances (2 goals, 2 assists), meaning he has scored or assisted every 98 minutes – the most of any Brazil player across the last two World Cup tournaments.
Haiti, meanwhile, ended a 54-year wait to feature at a World Cup, having last qualified before this edition way back in 1974, when they failed to get out of the groups in West Germany.
Their hopes of making it to the knockout stages this time, you feel, depended on getting a result against Scotland in their Group C opener.
A 1-0 defeat, courtesy of John McGinn’s deflected winner, means Sébastien Migné’s side are really up against it and facing the prospect of early elimination.
The omens are not particularly good, either, given Haiti have now lost all of their World Cup matches, scoring only twice and conceding 15 times in those games.
Only three nations previously have lost their first five World Cup games – Mexico (first nine), El Salvador (first six), and Canada (first six).
Haiti did have more shots than any other Group C side on MD1 (15), and ranked joint-top alongside Brazil for touches in the opposition box (22), but will have to go some to replicate those sort of figures in this clash.
Hannes Delcroix was one of Haiti’s stand-out performers in the defeat to Scotland, and did not misplace a single one of his 66 passes against Steve Clarke’s side.
He also ranked joint first for possession won (6) and top for clearances (6) among his teammates. It was also the most passes completed by a Haitian in a World Cup match.
Brazil vs Haiti Head-to-Head
This fixture marks the first time these two nations have ever met at a World Cup.
They have met on three previous occasions, though, with Brazil triumphing in all of those contests.
Indeed, the Seleção have racked up 17 goals from those matches, and have conceded to Haiti just once.
Coincidentally, the last time they went head-to-head was also in the USA, back in the 2016 Copa América, with Brazil running riot in a 7-1 victory in Orlando, Florida.
Current squad members Alisson Becker and Marquinhos featured in that game, which saw Philippe Coutinho score a hat-trick.
Brazil vs Haiti Prediction
This match features the largest gap between two teams in terms of the FIFA World Ranking in this year’s group stages, with Brazil (6th) some 78 places above Haiti (84th).
So, it comes as little surprise that the Seleção are considered the overwhelming favourites to triumph with the Opta supercomputer.
Their chances of victory currently sit at 87.3%, with Haiti having just a 4.3% probability of earning what would be one of the World Cup’s most famous upsets. The draw is considered an 8.4% shot.
Brazil may not have had the winning start they were looking for, but they still have a 52.0% probability of topping Group C, and a 90.3% chance of making the last 32. At the time of writing, they have a 5.4% likelihood of winning the tournament.
Haiti’s damaging loss to Scotland has severely dented their chances of getting out of the pool. They have just a 5.8% shot of reaching the knockout stages, and just a mere 0.4% shot at topping the group.
Brazil vs Haiti Squads
Brazil: Alisson Becker, Weverton, Ederson, Gabriel Magalhães, Marquinhos, Alex Sandro, Danilo, Bremer, Léo Pereira, Douglas Santos, Roger Ibañez, Éderson Silva, Casemiro, Bruno Guimarães, Fabinho, Danilo Santos, Lucas Paquetá, Vinícius Júnior, Matheus Cunha, Neymar, Raphinha, Endrick, Luiz Henrique, Gabriel Martinelli, Igor Thiago, Rayan.
Haiti: Johny Placide, Alexandre Pierre, Josué Duverger, Carlens Arcus, Keeto Thermoncy, Ricardo Adé, Hannes Delcroix, Martin Expérience, Duke Lacroix, Jean-Kévin Duverne, Wilguens Paugain, Carl Sainté, Jean-Ricner Bellegarde, Leverton Pierre, Danley Jean Jacques, Dominique Simon, Woodensky Pierre, Derrick Etienne, Duckens Nazon, Louicius Deedson, Ruben Providence, Lenny Joseph, Wilson Isidor, Yassin Fortuné, Frantzdy Pierrot, Josué Casimir.
Brazil vs Haiti Predicted Lineups
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