Brentford vs Aston Villa Prediction

We look ahead to Saturday’s Premier League game at the Gtech Community Stadium with our Brentford vs Aston Villa prediction and preview. The hosts will look to close the gap to Villa to just a point.

Brentford vs Aston Villa Stats: The Key Insights

• Brentford are the favourites, given a 42.6% chance of winning by the Opta supercomputer.
• Aston Villa are unbeaten across the last five meetings of these two teams, with three wins in that spell.
• Former Brentford striker Ollie Watkins has a good record in London, with nine goal involvements across his last 13 Premier League games in the capital.

Brentford and Aston Villa start the weekend either side of the split in the Premier League table.

The former (11th) are four points behind the latter (10th), so cannot overtake them with a win on Saturday, but Thomas Frank’s side can put a dent in the visitors’ hopes of European qualification.

Villa are only four points behind fifth-place Chelsea as we head into Matchday 28, but there are a host of other teams in the running for the same spots.

Unai Emery’s men are enjoying their run in this season’s Champions League, and may have sealed their place in the quarter-finals with their impressive 3-1 victory against Club Brugge in the first leg of their last-16 tie on Tuesday. But it will be an uphill battle to qualify again.

All they can do in the league is continue accumulating points. Emery is unbeaten in his five meetings with Brentford, so he knows how to get the better of a club who can prove to be very tricky opponents for almost every other team.

The sides last met in early December. The game was as good as over inside 35 minutes as goals from Morgan Rogers, Ollie Watkins and Matty Cash gave Villa a 3-0 lead. Mikkel Damsgaard pulled a goal back after the break, but it proved to be Brentford’s only shot on target.

Another win here would complete Villa’s first double over the Bees since 1946-47, albeit this is only the seventh season since in which the clubs have been in the same division.

As well as dominating the recent history between the teams, Villa have the much healthier of the two squads. Emery will only be without Ross Barkley and Amadou Onana, whereas Frank must prepare for the match with as many as eight men out. Brentford do at least have Rico Henry, Mathias Jensen and Christian Nørgaard nearing a return.

One factor that makes this match so hard to predict is that the hosts are suffering a poor run of form at home, while the visitors have been struggling on their travels.

Brentford are winless in their last six Premier League home games, which is remarkable considering they won seven and drew one of their opening eight. The breakdown of fixtures helps explain the change though, as the last six visiting sides have included four of the established ‘big six’ clubs, as well as high-flying Nottingham Forest and in-form Everton.

Similarly, having taken 10 points from the first 12 available on the road in the Premier League this season, Villa have since won just one away game, earning four points from a possible 27 in that time.

Their win in Belgium in midweek will have boosted their confidence on their travels, but Emery’s men have been poor following their Champions League matches this season. Villa are winless in their last seven Premier League games directly following a European fixture, losing all four away from Villa Park.

Regardless of their recent struggles on the road, the visitors can call upon a man who loves playing in London. Watkins has been involved in nine goals in his last 13 Premier League games in the capital, scoring eight and assisting one.

The England international was formerly at Brentford and has scored in his last three appearances against them, bagging four goals in total in those matches.

The home side can call upon an even more potent scorer in the 2024-25 Premier League, though, as Bryan Mbeumo begins the weekend fifth in the standings with 15 goals.

The 25-year-old has been crucial in putting Brentford ahead this seasonm too. Ten of Mbeumo’s 15 league goals have given Brentford the lead, the most of any player, while only Chris Wood, with nine, can top his tally of seven opening goals. With the first goal in any game often vital, the Villa defence will need to keep a very close eye on Mbeumo.

Brentford vs Aston Villa Head-to-Head

Brentford were unbeaten against Aston Villa for the three seasons between 2016-17 and 2018-19 when both sides were in the Championship. They won all three home games and also the first meeting following their promotion to the Premier League in 2021.

However, the head-to-head record has swung firmly towards Villa since they lost their first visit to the Gtech Community Stadium in January 2022. The last five meetings have seen the West Midlands outfit collect three wins and two draws.

If recent history is any guide, this should be an entertaining match. The previous six clashes saw an average of 3.7 goals and a solitary clean sheet (when Villa won 4-0 in October 2022). No team has been involved in more games in which both teams have scored in the Premier League this season than Aston Villa (20) either.

Brentford vs Aston Villa Prediction

The home side should have the edge according to the Opta supercomputer. Brentford won the match in 42.6% of simulations.

There’s roughly a one-in-three probability (32.9%) of an away win, with about a quarter chance (24.6%) of the teams ending the contest all square.

Brentford vs Aston Villa Predicted Lineups

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

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