By Opta Analyst | Created at 2026-09-17 07:43:00 | Updated at 2026-09-19 10:19:26
2 days ago
We look ahead to this London derby in the Premier League with our Brentford vs Chelsea prediction and preview.
Brentford vs Chelsea: The Key Stats
- Chelsea are the favourites for this match, with the Opta supercomputer giving them a win probability of 40.3%.
- Only Leeds United (2.47) have a higher set-piece expected goals total (excluding penalties) than Brentford in the Premier League so far this season (2.34)
- There have been more goals in Chelsea’s top-flight games this season than any other side (19 – 10 for, 9 against).
Chelsea will look to get back to winning ways in the Premier League when they take on west London rivals Brentford at the Gtech Community Stadium on Friday.
Xabi Alonso’s side have taken just one point from their past two league outings, following up a 2-1 loss to reigning champions Arsenal with a 2-2 draw at home to newly promoted Hull City.
Last weekend, they took an early lead through Morgan Rogers before falling behind to Mohamed Belloumi’s quickfire double against the run of play. João Pedro‘s emphatic second-half finish salvaged the draw.
João Pedro, who set up Rogers’ opener, now has six goal involvements in the Premier League this season (three goals, three assists) – more than any other player. Since the start of the last campaign, the Brazilian striker has both scored and assisted in more games than any other player in the top flight (6), including in three of his four appearances this term.
“Everyone wants to score, and Xabi tells us always, it doesn’t matter what happens, you just need to be focused and be connected to the game and you’re going to score,” João Pedro told Chelsea’s official website.
“That’s why we score many goals this season from the beginning, because I think in the front three you can create a lot. And if you create a lot, you’re going to score a lot of goals as well.”
But while Chelsea have proven themselves to have one of the league’s most potent attacks following the addition of Rogers from Aston Villa, Alonso is yet to get a handle on their leaky defence. His side have conceded 21 goals away from home in 2026, with Crystal Palace (23) the only team to ship more.
That has contributed to Chelsea winning just one of their past six Premier League away games.
Keith Andrews has made Brentford difficult to play against, and they are currently on a six-game unbeaten run. They’ve only bettered that streak on two occasions in the Premier League (7 in September 2023, 12 in March 2023).
Mamadou Sangaré has quickly made his mark since arriving from Lens. Only three players have applied more high-intensity pressures in their own half in the Premier League so far this season (127), while he is joint-fourth for fouls conceded (8) and joint-fifth for tackles made (13).
Chelsea will hope that the return of Moisés Caicedo from a calf injury can help limit Sangaré’s influence, but it is unclear whether the Ecuadorian will be available from the start. Emmanuel Emegha and Jordan Henderson are also doubts.
Andrews made eight changes for Brentford’s 2-1 EFL Cup win over Reading on Tuesday, with Callum Wilson and Fábio Carvalho making the most of the chance to start by scoring the decisive goals.
However, a more familiar lineup will be expected, with Joshua Dasilva, Antoni Milambo, Nathan Collins, Sepp van den Berg and Mathias Jensen likely to miss out.
Brentford vs Chelsea Head-to-Head
After losing three of their first five Premier League games against Brentford (W1 D1), Chelsea are now unbeaten in their last five against the Bees (W2 D3).
In this fixture last season, they recovered from Kevin Schade’s opener and led after goals from Cole Palmer and Caicedo, but Carvalho’s stoppage-time equaliser ensured the spoils were shared.
That result was the fourth straight Premier League draw between the teams at the Gtech Community Stadium and the Bees’ fifth without winning.
Brentford vs Chelsea Prediction
It has been tough to know what you are going to get from Chelsea so far this season. Against Hull, their live win probability ranged from 89.1% when they took the lead to 26.6% when they fell behind. That said, despite their somewhat erratic displays of late, the Opta supercomputer makes them the slight favourites for this encounter.
The Blues were victorious in 40.3% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations, with Brentford’s win probability calculated at 35.4%, so there is not much in it.
Brentford vs Chelsea Predicted Lineups
Brentford: Caoimhín Kelleher, Aaron Hickey, Jannik Schuster, Kristoffer Ajer, Keane Lewis-Potter, Mamadou Sangaré, Vitaly Janelt, Kevin Schade, Yehor Yarmoliuk, Jaidon Anthony, Igor Thiago
Head coach: Keith Andrews
Chelsea: Emiliano Martínez, Levi Colwill, Maxence Lacroix, Josh Acheampong, Jorrel Hato, Roméo Lavia, Reece James, Morgan Rogers, Cole Palmer, Pedro Neto, João Pedro
Head coach: Xabi Alonso
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 16,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world, and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Friday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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