Brighton vs Crystal Palace Prediction

Brighton are clearly favoured by the Opta supercomputer to claim three points in the Premier League on Sunday, but Crystal Palace have picked up in recent weeks. Look ahead to the game with our Brighton vs Crystal Palace prediction and preview.

Brighton vs Crystal Palace Stats: The Key Insights

• The Opta supercomputer has Brighton as favourites, giving them a 50.0% win probability to Crystal Palace’s 25.8%.
• Brighton are one of just three teams still unbeaten at home in the Premier League this season.
• Palace are on their longest unbeaten away run in the top flight since January to March in 2022.

Bragging rights are on the line when Brighton & Hove Albion host Crystal Palace at the Amex Stadium in the Premier League on Sunday.

Though there are 46 miles separating the two clubs, this clash – dubbed the A23 or M23 derby – has a rivalry dating back to the 1970s and the two clubs do not like each other very much. And that’s putting it mildly.

Brighton will be protecting a proud home record this season when their rivals make the roughly 90-minute journey. The Seagulls are one of three teams still unbeaten at home in the Premier League this season (W3, D4), along with Arsenal and Brentford. They lost four of their final five home encounters last term.

You can usually expect goals in Brighton matches. Since the start of last season, only Brentford (38) have scored and conceded in more top-flight games than Brighton (37), who have done so in 10 of their past 11 matches.

Palace find themselves struggling at the wrong end of the table down in 17th but Oliver Glasner’s men have a cause for optimism despite losing their last two trips to the Amex. Each of Brighton’s last five games against sides starting 17th or lower have ended in a draw.

But the Eagles will need to be better at protecting a lead should they find themselves ahead on enemy territory. Under Glasner, Palace have scored first and then gone on to concede two-plus goals in seven Premier League games, including in four of the six games they have scored first in this term. Since his first match in charge on February 24, only Chelsea have done so as often (also 7).

After a difficult start to the campaign, Palace have begun to show improvement and are unbeaten in their last three away matches (W1 D2), last enjoying a longer unbeaten stretch on the road between January and March 2022 (5). They have not won consecutive away matches in the division since April 2023.

Daniel Muñoz has scored in two of his past three league appearances, having failed to net in his first 28 games in the competition. The Colombian right-back is likely to have a busy day if Kaoru Mitoma plays, though. The Japanese winger has progressed the ball furthest upfield of any non-defender in the Premier League this season (1,899 metres). Additionally, he’s made 79 progressive carries of 10 metres or more, second of any player behind Southampton’s Kyle Walker-Peters (80).

Fabian Hürzeler has had to deal with his share of injuries at the Amex this term but Ferdi Kadioglu, Adam Webster, Adam Hinshelwood, and James Milner are all nearing a return to fitness and would boost his options if they were available.

Adam Wharton could come into contention for Palace after undergoing groin surgery in November, while summer signing Chadi Riad is stepping up his recovery from a long-term knee injury.

Brighton vs Crystal Palace Head-to-Head

Brighton have emerged triumphant in their past two home Premier League matches against Crystal Palace. They last won more consecutive home top-flight matches against their rivals between 1979 and 1988 when they racked up a streak of seven.

Palace have not fared too well against the Seagulls in recent games, failing to win their past six league matches against them (D4 L2).

That marks their longest stretch without a win against the Seagulls since a run of 10 between 1979 and 1986.

Brighton vs Crystal Palace Prediction

Brighton are considered the clear favourites with the Opta supercomputer to win this one, with a 50.0% win probability out of the 10,000 simulations conducted.

Palace may have picked up a little in recent weeks, losing just one of their past six (W1 D4), but they came out on top on just 25.8% of occasions, with the draw occurring 24.2% of the time.

Brighton currently find themselves seventh in a congested Premier League table but their most likely outcome is to finish fifth come May (15%).

Palace, meanwhile, are languishing down in 17th but are calculated to have just a 4.2% chance of finishing 18th. As things stand they are most likely to place 15th according to Opta’s model (24.6%).

Brighton vs Crystal Palace Predicted Lineups

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off on Sunday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

Subscribe to our football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You should also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.