By GB News (Politics) | Created at 2025-03-04 10:45:30 | Updated at 2025-03-04 14:03:58
3 hours ago
After riding high in the opinion polls, a new YouGov voting intention study has delivered Reform UK its first real blow.
With voters growing increasingly disaffected with Keir Starmer after a bumpy first six months in office and the Conservatives failing to land an effective blow, Reform has overtaken the two main parties in the polls.
Nigel Farage will be buoyed by all the positive PR, but a new voting intention study shows his party is vulnerable to the same tactical voting machinery that handed the Conservatives its historic defeat on July 4.
In the General Election held on July 4, 2024, Reform UK, led by Farage, achieved a notable breakthrough by securing 14.3 per cent of the national vote share (approximately 4.1 million votes) and winning five seats in the House of Commons—its first-ever parliamentary representation.
However, the first-past-the-post (FPTP) system limited their seat gains despite a strong showing in vote share, placing them third behind Labour (33.7 per cent, 412 seats) and the Conservatives (23.7 per cent, 121 seats).
Reform UK came second in 89 constituencies, many of which were won by Labour, highlighting their potential as a challenger in specific regions, particularly in northern England and coastal areas.
The election saw significant tactical voting, especially among Labour and Liberal Democrat supporters, aimed at ousting the Conservatives, who suffered a historic defeat.
This tactical coordination contributed to Labour’s landslide victory and the Liberal Democrats’ gain of 72 seats, despite Reform UK siphoning votes from the Conservative base.
Tactical voting is a clear threat to Reform UK - but there are opportunities for Nigel Farage's party too
Getty Images/YouGov
If left wing voters – and enough Tories – are determined to keep Reform UK out, could that prove an insurmountable obstacle for Nigel Farage and his party?
A new YouGov voting intention study has tested prospective tactical voting intention by asking voters which party they would back if there were only two that stood a chance of winning in their constituency.
These results shed light on Reform’s vulnerability and potential in the face of tactical voting.
At the 2024 General Election, there were 89 seats in which Labour came first and Reform UK placed second. Many of these will form the targets for Reform at the next election, with the party placing second in a few other constituencies.
However, in YouGov's Labour-Reform tactical voting question, Labour holds a narrow lead over Reform, with 35 per cent of voters saying they would back Starmer’s party and 31 per cent Farage’s.
This suggests a significant threat to Reform UK in Labour-Reform battlegrounds (like the 89 seats where Reform placed second to Labour in 2024).
Left-leaning voters—Liberal Democrats and Greens — overwhelmingly consolidate behind Labour, potentially squeezing Reform’s chances despite retaining most of its current base (95-100 per cent of Reform voters stay loyal).
Opportunities
Reform UK proves the bigger draw for current Tory voters under Labour-Reform match-up, with 50 per cent saying they would back Farage’s party versus only 10 per cent for Starmer’s – 24 per cent, however, would stick with Kemi Badenoch’s party regardless.
The results of YouGov's hypothetical voting intention question, where Reform UK and the Conservatives are the only ones with much chance of winning, find the two right-wing parties neck and neck, with the Tories on 26 per cent to Reform’s 25 per cent.
While Reform again manages to hold on to virtually all of their current voters (96 per cent), this figure is notably lower for the Conservatives, at 85 per cent.
One in twelve Tories (eight per cent) would go to Reform if they had to choose between the two parties, with only three per cent of current Reform voters travelling in the opposite direction.
This razor-thin margin indicates an opportunity for Reform to capitalise on disillusioned Conservative voters (only 35 per cent of 2019 Tory voters intend to stay loyal).
However, tactical voting from Labour and Lib Dem supporters favouring the Conservatives (Tories do manage to peel off 33 per cent of current Lib Dem voters and 22 per cent of those currently backing Labour) could thwart Reform’s gains in Tory-Reform marginals.
Reform UK proves the bigger draw for current Tory voters under a Labour-Reform match-up
GETTY
By contrast, Reform UK draws only six per cent of Labour and Lib Dem voters.
Reform UK voters remain fiercely loyal to the party, however, with just under half (46 per cent) saying they would be willing to vote Conservative to prevent a Labour victory in their seat, with a mere four per cent preferring to side with Starmer’s party.
A third (34 per cent) would continue to cast their ballot paper for Reform – a notably higher than the 24 per cent of Conservatives who refused to change their vote in our other head to heads.
The latest polling on tactical voting underscores how much ground the party still has to cover before it can take on the two main parties.
As polling guru John Curtice put it to GB News in a previous interview, the problem for Reform is it is still largely operating in a "niche market".
For example, a previous YouGov poll indicated that 90 per cent of individuals who voted for Reform UK in the 2024 general election are considering voting for the party again in the future.
This suggests a high level of loyalty among Reform UK voters compared to other parties, who received more wavering support.
On the one hand, this is encouraging, but it also suggests an echo chamber effect, with limits to their broader appeal.
Also, voting patterns have barely shifted since 2019.
At the last General Election, Labour barely increased its support in the Red Wall, suggesting that Reform doesn't have a huge untapped base of voters to go after.
However, recent by-elections and polling data indicate that Reform's messaging is resonating with voters north of the border, suggesting that they could still ride the wave to No 10.
Also, Curtice drew attention to encouraging lessons from the SNP's meteoric rise in Scotland.
"There is no golden rule that says that third parties cannot gain seats. Look at the SNP in Scotland - they destroyed the traditional two-party system destroyed in 2015. Scotland shows you there is no right to left," he told GB News.
Curtice makes the point that before that seismic election, the SNP were the third party behind Labour and the Conservatives in Scotland.
The FPTP electoral system effectively propelled the SNP to power and the same could happen with Reform if it broadens its appeal, he added.
