Can Trump’s Gold Card Scheme Work?

(Melina Mara /The Washington Post via Getty Images)

If you’re hung up on the idea of selling American citizenship, that horse left the barn decades ago. What’s left to be resolved is just how much it should cost.

“We’re going to be selling a gold card,” President Donald Trump said from the Cabinet Room recently. “You have a green card. This is a gold card. We’re going to be putting a price on that card of about $5 million, and that’s going to give you green card privileges, plus it’s going to be a route to citizenship. And wealthy people will be coming into our country by buying this card.” 

Highly skilled people can also get in on the deal if they can find a sponsor. “Companies can buy gold cards and, in exchange, get those visas to hire new employees,” Trump said. He estimates he can sell 10 million of them.

Trump is talking about changes to America’s current citizenship-for-sale scheme, the EB-5 visa. That visa requires a foreigner to create a new business through investment that creates or sustains at least 10 American jobs, or buy an existing business resulting in at least a 40 percent increase in the net worth or number of employees. In the case of a troubled business, an EB-5 investor may rely on “job maintenance,” that the number of existing employees is, or will be, no less than the pre-investment level for a period of at least two years.

What’s really required, in addition to the usual vetting, is money, at least $1,050,000 in most cases, $800,00 if the investment is in a rural or high-unemployment area (most investors go for the cheaper option, called a Targeted Employment Area.) The paperwork is significantly backed up, but after you invest the money and wait three to six years for adjudication, you’ve bought yourself a path to U.S. citizenship.

The problem is that the scheme has not worked as well as it should have. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnik stated that the program is rife with “nonsense, make-believe, and fraud.” He was likely referring to the many fraudulent investments marketed to EB-5 investors abroad, particularly housing developments and golf courses that absorb investment money but never seem to appear on the ground. He may also be referring to a U.S. government decision to allow overseas investors to pool their money for an investment, meaning no one person puts a million dollars at risk. Another decision allows the investor to borrow his million abroad, a loan to invest in the U.S., meaning if the loan goes sour abroad so does the U.S. investment. Things got even shadier when promissory notes began being accepted in lieu of the bulk of the one million investment as cash. (It bears saying that there were also some notable successes funded with EB-5 money, including Hudson Yards in Manhattan and the Barclay’s Center in Brooklyn.)

Overall the program suffered from a lack of transparency in what investment would be approved by the USG, and a lack of enforcement to ensure the investors followed through on their side of the deal after the visa was actually issued. Traffic was only so-so—desire for the visa peaked in 2015, when the minimum investment was only $500,000. At that peak the government approved about 15,000 visas a year, a long shot short of Trump’s projected million visas sold for his $5 million gold card. The long processing times have not helped business. Overall, 2020, 78,278 investors applied for the EB-5 program. Some 80 percent of those investors came from four countries, China, South Korea, Taiwan, and the United Kingdom, with China clearly in the lead: In 2014, of the total of 10,692 EB-5 visas issued, 85 percent were for Chinese nationals.

The lack of broader interest in the American EB-5 has nothing to do with actual demand from the world’s wealthy.

The world’s wealthy love second passports, especially if the principal happens to have a lot of money and a passport that opens few doors or can easily be taken away in a country like Nigeria or Vietnam. Brokers suggest passports from some 28 countries might be available, including NATO member Turkey (about $400,000) and EU member Portugal (roughly $541,000). A number of smaller Caribbean nations like St. Lucia offer passports for sale, or, if a little lipstick is needed for the pig, passports for investment.

Details and requirements vary greatly, as does cost, from a few hundred thousand to over one million dollars. To apply for a Portuguese golden visa, for example, one qualifying option is to make a large non-refundable contribution to an approved cultural organization. In the Caribbean, you can make a contribution toward funds the government designed to help invest in varying sectors, like infrastructure. Some Caribbean countries also allow you to qualify for citizenship by purchasing real estate. One popular but pricey option is EU Malta’s citizenship by naturalization, which requires a $780,000 non-refundable contribution to the economy. Applicants must also pay $52,000 for each qualifying dependent, lease or purchase a property in Malta for six years, and donate to a Maltese charity. All of these options would compete with Trump’s gold card for buyers.

Desire for a second passport is not limited to Nigerian princes and Vietnamese oligarchs. Many wealthy Americans are in the market (though obviously would not be in the pool for a Trump gold card). Henley & Partners, a law firm specializing in high-net-worth citizenships, said Americans now outnumber every other nationality when it comes to securing alternative residences or added citizenships.

Recent high-profile examples of second citizenships include the billionaire Peter Thiel (New Zealand) and the former Google CEO Eric Schmidt (Cyprus). The head of private clients at Henley & Partners added, “If I’m wealthy, I would like to hedge against levels of volatility and uncertainty. The idea of diversification is well understood by wealthy individuals around what they invest. It makes no sense to have one country of citizenship and residence when I have the ability to actually diversify that aspect of my life as well.”

“Globally, millionaire migration was expected to have hit a new high in 2024, as wars, government crackdowns on wealth, and political uncertainty drove more wealthy residents to other countries, with an estimated 128,000 millionaires forecast to move to a new country,” according to Henley. The U.S. remains a top destination for the global wealthy, with an inflow of 2,200 millionaires in 2023 and an estimated 3,500 in 2024. China remains the biggest source of emigration, losing 13,500 millionaires last year.

So what might this mean for Trump’s gold card? There is first of all the problem of getting rid of the creaky EB-5 visa and replacing it with the gold card. Trump says an executive order will suffice, but most experts agree only Congress can revoke or create new visa categories. Assuming Trump can get past that hurdle (no small task), is his gold card in the clear?

On the plus side, he is in fact marketing the U.S. as the world’s best destination. While someone may scoop up a Maltese passport for travel convenience, he is unlikely to want to move his fortune there, invest further, or set up house. The U.S. is different, and the gold card would be on sale for a single fee, transactional and quick, no risky investing needed, no subjective adjudication. Despite Americans’ fears, the U.S. passport is still one of the most usable in the world, and for the rich, American wealth-creation, education, and medical care rank close to number one. The U.S. is a highly desirable location not just for a convenient passport but as a place of residence.

The problem is price. Trump’s gold card, if offered at $5 million, is dramatically more expensive than its competitors. The pool of potential buyers, though not small, is not that deep. Simply put, is the price too high?