Canada's Trudeau facing revolt from within as popular conservative leader looks to capitalize

Justin Trudeau is up against perhaps his toughest challenge yet as the Canadian prime minister is facing mounting calls for his resignation.

Pierre Poilievre, leader of the opposition Conservative Party, would be the obvious candidate to replace Trudeau if his party can win the next general election, not slated until October 2025. A year out from the election, a CBC News poll finds that the Conservative Party holds a 20-point lead over Trudeau’s Liberals, dropping to a new low.

Poilievre, appealing to both traditional conservatives and the more populist elements of society, is looking to capitalize on Canada’s post-pandemic social and economic issues.

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Trudeau, who’s been in power since 2015 and is looking for a fourth term as prime minister, is facing a minor revolt from within his own party. The Liberal Party holds 153 seats in Canada’s House of Commons. Several lawmakers within the party sent a letter to Trudeau asking him to step down from party leader as his popularity has diminished and could affect the outcome of the next election. 

The prime minister faced a no confidence vote in parliament in September introduced by opposition leader Poilievre, but his conservatives failed to garner enough support from other political parties to oust Trudeau.

Canada Prime Minister Justin Trudeau speaks in the House of Commons on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, Ontario, Tuesday, Oct. 31.  (Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press via AP)

With Trudeau’s approval rating dipping below 30%, Poilievre and the Conservative Party could still call for more votes of no confidence. The Conservative Party holds 119 seats in the House of Commons but, along with several other opposition parties, could oust Trudeau.

Some Members of Parliament in Trudeau’s party dismissed the calls for his resignation as a distraction and only a small but vocal minority of the party.

Leader of Canada's Conservative Party, Pierre Poilievre, speaks during a 'Spike the Hike - Axe the Tax' rally in Edmonton, on March 27, 2024, in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. (Artur Widak/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

"Realistically, there is little chance of Trudeau stepping down," Jamie Tronnes Executive Director at the Center for North American Prosperity and Security, told Fox News Digital.

"Historically, when leaders have been pushed out by Canadian political parties, it has been due to a systematic and organized effort, usually led by an heir apparent or their supporters.  There is no such person in this case, at least, not one who is organized and supported by the Liberal caucus," Tronnes added.

Against the backdrop of Trudeau’s mounting unpopularity and calls for his resignation, there have been growing concerns since the pandemic over the rising cost of living and a shortage of affordable housing that many people feel is exacerbated by the rise of the foreign-born population.

Marc Miller (R), Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship, hands small Canadian flag to one of 53 new Canadian citizens representing 22 diverse nations, as they embark on their citizenship journey during a special ceremony at Canada Place, on October 12, 2023, in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. (Artur Widak/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

Tronnes said the rapid onset of newcomers has severely strained what the Canadian economy, housing, healthcare and other institutions can support. If the election were held now, Tronnes said, Poilievre would become Canada's next prime minister.

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In an effort to stave off criticism from the right, Trudeau announced that Canada will reduce the number of permanent residents in the country from an initial target of 500,000 to 395,000 permanent residents in 2025. The figures will drop significantly in 2026 and 2027. 

"While it’s clear our economy needs newcomers, we see the pressures facing our country, and we must adapt our policies accordingly," Marc Miller, Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship said in a statement.

"These changes will make immigration work for our country so that everyone has access to the quality jobs, homes and support they need to thrive. We have listened to Canadians, and we will continue to protect the integrity of our system and grow our population responsibly," Miller added.

Freedom Convoy protesters gather on Parliament Hill for the first anniversary of the Covid-19 truck convoy protest, in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, on January 28, 2023.  (DAVE CHAN/AFP via Getty Images)

Reducing the number of immigrants will help alleviate pressure in the housing market, with the housing supply gap expected to decrease by approximately 670,000 units by the end of 2027, according to the Government of Canada.

Trudeau’s flip on immigration would be a major shift for the prime minister and historic Canadian immigration policy. Canada’s immigration policies have typically welcomed newcomers to foster economic growth and have also been supportive of asylum seekers. 

Canada’s population has grown in recent years, reaching 41 million in April 2024. Immigration accounted for almost 98% of this growth in 2023, according to official data from the Canadian government.

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Pierre Poilievre, leader of Canada's Conservative Party, during the Canada Strong and Free Networking Conference in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, on Thursday, April 11, 2024. (David Kawai/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

Trudeau has said Canada’s population rise needs to stabilize and that adjustments need to be made to social programs before they can welcome new immigrants in the future.

Tronnes told Fox News Digital that, "There is an old saying in Canadian politics — governments defeat themselves. In this case, Trudeau's reluctance to leave may prove it true."