By Opta Analyst | Created at 2026-06-17 13:55:40 | Updated at 2026-06-17 17:32:21
3 hours ago
Will one of these sides earn their first-ever World Cup victory? Look ahead to Canada vs Qatar in Group B at the 2026 FIFA World Cup with our match prediction and preview.
Canada vs Qatar: The Key Insights
- Canada are clear favourites to win this match, coming out on top in 72.9% of the Opta supercomputer’s 25,000 simulations.
- Canada have won their last four matches played in Vancouver, scoring 17 goals and conceding only two. The last team to beat them in the British Columbia city were Mexico in a March 2016 World Cup qualifier (3-0).
- Qatar ranked bottom of sides in Group B at the 2026 FIFA World Cup for shots (6), average possession (32%), forward passes (118), touches in the opposition box (8) and successful final-third passes (24) on MD1.
Canada and Qatar will both attempt to win a FIFA World Cup match for the first time when they face off at BC Place Vancouver on Thursday.
Both teams, in fact, had 100% losing records at the tournament before drawing against Bosnia-Herzegovina and Switzerland, respectively, on MD1. Their draws will no doubt have been received differently by their fans.
Canada were the aggressors against Bosnia and will feel they did enough to win the game despite having conceded the opening goal; they had 61% possession, 37 touches in the opposition box to Bosnia’s 15, and allowed just 0.02 expected goals in open play.
For Qatar, it was a different story, and their draw against a vastly more experienced Swiss side was celebrated like a victory. They had 32% possession, eight touches in the opposition box to Switzerland’s 42, and allowed 3.2 expected goals. And yet they managed to escape with a draw thanks to an own goal from Miro Muheim in the fourth minute of added time.
There will, of course, be much more pressure on Canada to earn the win here. The tournament’s other two co-hosts, Mexico and the USA, won on home turf with relative ease on MD1, and Canada will be desperate to join the party. They remain winless in seven attempts at the World Cup – only Honduras (9) and Egypt (8) have played more games without ever tasting victory.
The city of Vancouver has been kind to them in recent times. Canada have won their last four matches played there, scoring 17 goals while conceding only two. The last team to beat them there were Mexico in a March 2016 World Cup qualifier.
Canada head coach Jesse Marsch may feel that his team’s performance against Bosnia was sufficient not to necessitate any lineup changes for this game, but two players pushing for a start are Promise David and Cyle Larin.
David assisted Larin for Canada’s only goal in the draw, the first time that two substitutes have combined for a goal for the nation in a World Cup match. Larin had only been on the pitch for 121 seconds at the time of scoring and netted with his very first touch.
One player surely assured of a start is central midfielder Ismaël Koné. No Canada player completed more passes against Bosnia than Koné (50), while he also led all teammates for line-breaking passes in the final third (9) and high-intensity pressures (49).
Qatar were somewhat lucky not to lose against Switzerland, and the numbers suggest they may require a level of luck not to lose this match. They ranked bottom of sides in Group B on MD1 for shots (6), possession (32%), forward passes (118), touches in the opposition box (8) and successful final-third passes (24).
Meanwhile, the 26 shots that they faced were only six fewer than they allowed across their three group games on home soil in the 2022 World Cup combined (32).
Two-time Asian Footballer of the Year, Akram Afif, is often considered Qatar’s greatest ever player, and the Al Sadd winger will no doubt be central to any success they may have at this tournament.
Afif was the only Qatar player to create multiple chances on MD1 against Switzerland (2), while across their two World Cup appearances in 2022 and 2026, Afif has created five more chances than any other teammate (7).
Canada vs Qatar Head-to-Head
This will be Canada and Qatar’s first meeting at a World Cup. Their only previous encounter ever came in a September 2022 friendly in Vienna – Canada won 2-0 through goals from Larin and Jonathan David.
Canada have faced non-European opposition just once before at the World Cup, losing 2-1 to Morocco at the 2022 tournament during the group stage.
This will be the fourth time a World Cup host nation has faced a side from Asia, with the hosts winning each of the previous three – Mexico 1-0 Iraq (1986), France 4-0 Saudi Arabia (1998) and Russia 5-0 Saudi Arabia (2018).
Canada vs Qatar Prediction
The Opta supercomputer is supremely confident that it will be Canada who pick up their first World Cup win in this match, with Marsch’s side earning all three points in 72.9% of its 25,000 simulations.
The next most likely result is a draw, at 16.5%. Meanwhile, Qatar have just a 10.6% chance of upsetting the odds with an unlikely victory.
Canada vs Qatar Squads
Canada: Dayne St. Clair, Maxime Crépeau, Owen Goodman, Alistair Johnston, Alfie Jones, Luc De Fougerolles, Joel Waterman, Derek Cornelius, Moïse Bombito, Alphonso Davies, Richie Laryea, Mathieu Choinière, Stephen Eustaquio, Ismaël Koné, Ali Ahmed, Jonathan Osorio, Niko Sigur, Nathan Saliba, Cyle Larin, Jonathan David, Liam Millar, Tani Oluwaseyi, Jacob Shaffelburg, Tajon Buchanan, Promise David, Jayden Nelson.
Qatar: Mahmoud Abunada, Salah Zakaria, Meshaal Barsham, Pedro Miguel, Lucas Mendes, Issa Laye, Jassem Gaber, Ayoub Al Oui, Homam El Amin, Boualem Khoukhi, Sultan Al Brake, Al Hashmi Al Hussain, Abdulaziz Hatem, Karim Boudiaf, Ahmed Fathy, Assim Madibo, Mohammad Al Mannai, Ahmed Alaa, Edmílson Junior, Mohammed Muntari, Hassan Al Haydos, Akram Afif, Yusuf Abdurisag, Ahmed Al Ganehi, Almoez Ali, Tahsin Mohammed.
Canada vs Qatar Predicted Lineups
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