By Opta Analyst | Created at 2026-09-18 12:11:55 | Updated at 2026-09-19 09:27:16
22 hours ago
For the second time in a week, there is an Old Firm derby taking place in Scotland on Sunday. We look ahead to the game with our Celtic vs Rangers prediction and preview.
Celtic vs Rangers: The Key Stats
- The Opta supercomputer is backing Celtic to maintain their perfect start to the Premiership season, giving them a 49.9% chance of beating Rangers.
- Rangers beat Celtic 3-0 in the Scottish League Cup last Sunday. However, there have only been two previous instances of Rangers facing their Glasgow rivals in back-to-back games and winning both – in September 1960 and April 1998.
- Derek McInnes could become only the second Rangers boss to win his first two Old Firm derbies in charge of the club, after Graeme Souness in 1986.
Going into last week’s Old Firm derby in the quarter-finals of the Scottish League Cup, all the pressure appeared to be on Rangers.
Already trailing their rivals by five points at the top of the Scottish Premiership, having also missed two shots at European football this season, Derek McInnes’ side needed to make a statement in his first derby at the helm.
And they did exactly that, with Dan Neil netting twice either side of Kevin Kelsy’s terrific volley as the Gers triumphed 3-0 in front of a jubilant Ibrox.
The teams do not have to wait long for a reunion, with Celtic Park playing host to the first league derby of 2026-27 this Sunday.
Martin O’Neill’s side have seen their big-game credentials questioned by pundits and supporters alike in recent days, and things got worse on Thursday as they started their Europa League campaign with a dispiriting 3-1 defeat to Ferencvaros.
Sunday’s game should be markedly different to the one that took place just seven days prior, though, particularly with home advantage now in Celtic’s favour in a season where away fans have been barred from all Old Firm derbies.
And despite a few murmurs of discontent, the underlying data suggests Celtic are performing at a higher level this term when compared to their two spells with O’Neill in charge on a temporary basis last season.
In 2026-27, Celtic are posting better per-game figures in the Premiership for goals (2.33 to 2.22), expected goals (3.13 xG to 2.03), shots (22.5 to 16.0), goals conceded (0.5 to 0.9) and expected goals against (0.89 xGA to 0.97) than they managed under O’Neill’s management in 2025-26.
A fast start could be crucial to setting the tone, and five of Celtic’s six home league goals this season have come in first halves, with Benjamin Nygren’s goal against Dundee on Matchday 1 their only second-half strike at Celtic Park.
McInnes, meanwhile, will hope last week’s cup success proves a turning point after a difficult start to his tenure. He could become only the second Rangers manager to win his first two Old Firm derbies in charge of the club, after Graeme Souness in 1986.
Rangers have won four straight league matches after failing to win either of their first two, though all those victories – versus Aberdeen, Falkirk, Motherwell and St. Mirren – have come by one-goal margins.
If they are to cut the gap to their neighbours, improved finishing could be the key. Rangers have scored just six goals from 128 shots in the Premiership this season (one own goal), with their conversion rate of 5.5% the lowest in the division.
Celtic vs Rangers Head-to-Head
Following last week’s cup success, Rangers have the chance to achieve a rare feat.
In the storied history of this fixture, there are only two previous instances of Rangers facing Celtic in back-to-back games across all competitions and winning both, doing so in September 1960 under Scot Symon and April 1998 under Walter Smith.
Celtic won the last Premiership matchup between the sides by a 3-1 scoreline in May, however.
That victory ended a six-game winless run for the Bhoys in Old Firm league games (D3 L3), and they have won six of their last eight such matches at Celtic Park (L2).
Celtic enter this game on a 13-match winning streak in the Premiership, dating back to a 2-0 loss to Dundee United in March.
It is their longest winning run going into an Old Firm derby in the Premiership since March 2017, when they were on a 22-match winning streak. Curiously, the Hoops have only won on two of the six previous occasions when they have faced Rangers in the league while on a winning run of 13 or more matches (D1 L3).
A victory here would mark the first time they have won 14 or more consecutive league games since that aforementioned 22-game sequence under Brendan Rodgers in 2017 – that run ended with a 1-1 home draw with Rangers.
Celtic vs Rangers Prediction
The Opta supercomputer is siding with Celtic ahead of this match, as they will be backed by a partisan home crowd.
Across 10,000 data-led simulations conducted ahead of the game, Celtic won 49.9% compared to Rangers’ 24.8%, with the remaining 25.3% finishing level.
And in Opta’s 2026-27 season predictions, Celtic are overwhelming favourites to retain their Premiership crown for a sixth straight campaign. They have a 75.4% chance of winning the title, compared to Rangers’ 10.0%.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 16,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world, and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Enjoy this? Add Opta Analyst as a preferred source by clicking here.
Subscribe to our football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You should also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.
