By Opta Analyst | Created at 2025-03-27 15:12:12 | Updated at 2025-04-05 02:19:10
1 week ago
Who are the favourites to lift the 2024-25 UEFA Champions League trophy? The Opta supercomputer’s Champions League predictions break down each team’s chances of success.
We are only at the quarter-final stage of the UEFA Champions League, and there’s already been a major shake-up in the Opta supercomputer’s tournament predictions.
Favourites heading into the round of 16 Liverpool are out — eliminated on penalties by an impressive Paris Saint-Germain side.
Heading into the second leg at Anfield, Arne Slot’s team were the model’s most likely winners, lifting the trophy in 23.9% of simulations.
But with Liverpool now gone, it’s Barcelona who are the new frontrunners, winning the competition in 20.4% of simulations.
Close behind them are PSG, who win their maiden UCL title 19.3% of the time.
But how does the rest of the competition shape up after the round-of-16 drama? Here are the updated projections:
Qualified for the quarter-finals: PSG, Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Inter, Arsenal, Real Madrid, Aston Villa, Borussia Dortmund
Qualified for the last 16: Liverpool, Arsenal, Inter, Barcelona, Atlético Madrid, Bayer Leverkusen, Aston Villa, Lille, PSG, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, Benfica, PSV, Club Brugge, Borussia Dortmund, Feyenoord
Eliminated prior to last 16: Atalanta, Manchester City, Sporting CP, Milan, Juventus, Monaco, Celtic, Brest, Dinamo Zagreb, Stuttgart, Shakhtar Donetsk, Bologna, Crvena zvezda, Sturm Graz, Sparta Prague, RB Leipzig, Girona, Red Bull Salzburg, Slovan Bratislava, Young Boys
How Does the Opta Supercomputer Model Work?
The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and the Opta Power Rankings. The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performances. The competition in its entirety is simulated 10,000 times to produce a final projection for each side.
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