Chelsea vs Arsenal Prediction

We look ahead to Sunday’s Premier League game at Stamford Bridge with our Chelsea vs Arsenal prediction and preview. Can the Blues deal another blow to Mikel Arteta’s title hopes?

Chelsea vs Arsenal Stats: The Key Insights

• Arsenal have a 39.2% chance of victory according to the Opta supercomputer. Chelsea are victorious in 34.4% of pre-match simulations.
• Arsenal have triumphed on three of their last four league trips to Stamford Bridge (D1), as many victories as they recorded in their previous 20 (D7 L10).
• Since the start of last season, Nicolas Jackson has been involved in more London derby goals than any other player in the Premier League (10 goals, 2 assists).

After recent defeats to Bournemouth and Newcastle United, Arsenal‘s hopes of ending their long wait for a domestic title are already in danger of falling by the wayside.

Last week’s 1-0 defeat at St. James’ Park made it just seven points from their last five league games for Mikel Arteta’s Gunners, meaning they trail leaders Liverpool by seven points heading into Matchday 11.

Injuries have taken their toll on Arteta’s men, and things will not get much easier for them on Sunday against a Chelsea team who sit above them on goal difference.

Enzo Maresca’s Blues fought back to draw 1-1 with Manchester United last time out as Moisés Caicedo’s volley cancelled out Bruno Fernandes’ penalty. Only Manchester City and Liverpool have beaten Chelsea since the Italian took the reins.

In fact, Chelsea’s last three Premier League defeats have come against last season’s top three sides, with Arsenal beating them in April. They’re unbeaten in their last 21 matches against all other teams, winning 14 and drawing seven, while scoring 57 goals – an average of 2.7 per game.

The future certainly looks bright for Maresca’s young side. They fielded a starting lineup with an average age of 23 years and 96 days at Old Trafford last week.

They further signalled their promise on Thursday as they thrashed Armenian outfit Noah 8-0 in the UEFA Conference League. However, Chelsea are arguably still waiting for a first statement win under Maresca in the Premier League.

They will hope Cole Palmer wins his battle to be fit after he suffered a knock against United last time out. Since he arrived at Stamford Bridge last year, Palmer has more home goals in the competition than any other player (21).

Nicolas Jackson’s 12 goal involvements in Premier League London derbies since the start of last season are more than any other player has managed, so Arsenal will need to closely watch the Senegalese attacker.

Arsenal need to get back on track following defeats at Bournemouth and Newcastle. They could lose three straight away games in the Premier League for the first time since December 2021, when they ultimately finished outside the top four. They also lost 1-0 at Inter in the Champions League on Wednesday.

The Gunners have won just seven points from five away matches this term, fewer than Liverpool (13), Nottingham Forest (11), Chelsea, City and Aston Villa (all 10).

Ødegaard’s return after two months out with an ankle injury is a major boost. The Norwegian led all players in the Premier League for expected assists (11.2 xA) and chances created from open play (88) last season.

Arsenal have outperformed their underlying attacking metrics this campaign, netting 17 league goals from 15.8 expected goals (xG), so their finishing doesn’t appear to be an issue. The fact they rank eighth in the league for xG does, however, suggest chance creation is a problem.

Chelsea vs Arsenal Head-to-Head

Arsenal had traditionally struggled against Chelsea in the Premier League, but the tide has turned in fixtures between the teams of late.

The Gunners have triumphed on three of their last four league trips to Stamford Bridge (D1), as many victories as they recorded in their previous 20 such visits (D7 L10).

Overall, Chelsea have won just one of their last nine Premier League games against Arsenal (D2 L6), a 2-0 away success in August 2021.

Their last meeting was a 5-0 rout in Arsenal’s favour at the Emirates Stadium in April, their biggest-ever margin of victory against Chelsea in all competitions.

Chelsea vs Arsenal Prediction

As you might expect, given the two sides are only separated on goal difference ahead of Sunday’s match, the Opta supercomputer has found it difficult to split them.

Across 10,000 pre-match simulations conducted by the supercomputer, Arsenal were victorious in 39.2%, giving them a slight edge over their hosts, who have a 34.4% chance. The likelihood of a draw is rated at 26.4%.

Chelsea vs Arsenal Predicted Lineups

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

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